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coping with variance???

donkeyplopdonkeyplop
edited September 2010 in The Poker Clinic
over the last 3/4 days i can't win a race!

im still only raising and folding pre so no limping.

none of my ak aq aj kq type hands are hitting.

should i properly nit up and wait for hands like aa kk qq jj etc??

or is that just too predictable?





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Comments

  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited September 2010

    Ive not had a winning session for ages plopper.

    I think I figured out why this morning, when I realised I hadn't had a shave for 2 and a half weeks, which is the amount of time Ive gone breaking even/losing.

    So now thats fixed I should be okay tonight......

    If that doesn't work.....try playing tournys.......Its more frustrating when u get deep and then the "run bad" catches up with you, but at least you can manage your losses. 

    I wouldn't reccomend trying to change a style on the cash tables that has previously worked for you though. That cud mess things up long term.

    Try mtt's and have a shave wud be my advice. GL.
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  • shaun09shaun09
    edited September 2010
    i was playing last night, and eveyr time i had decent hand i would do a 3x or 4x raise, with a10+ pocket pairs and every time im getting beaten, flopped flush, but other guy had flopped higherflush, i have 1010 on 86 board after 5x raise he holds 86, i have kk they have aa ect ect, i lost alot last night, whilst i wasnt hittinh any cards (cash), but they say if you play every day take  few days break, Or just carry on through as it will even out. im not playing untill thursday now in the 8k BH
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  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop
    edited September 2010
    ok i will try that dohhhhhh!

    going to have a shave and a kitkat.....................

    and shaun thats what seems to be happening to me!!!!!

    i tried playing a dym for a change and ran my qq into kk lol.




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  • beanehbeaneh
    edited September 2010
    Just assume that anything that you've experienced so far is just a 1/10'000th of what 'could' happen worst case scenario wise.


    take a break/move down/move up whatever you need to do. 


    gl.
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  • ybyb
    edited September 2010
    lol at shaving to beat the variance!

    Just think of every hand as an independent event so each time in the same situation you will still have the exact same odds of getting lucky/sucked out on etc.

    Like if you lose 10 flips in a row you're still 50/50 to win the next one and vice versa.
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  • shaun09shaun09
    edited September 2010

    i know the feeling donkey, i seem to be making profit in tounrys (well only 2 tounrys) and then blow a bit by bit of it on cash lol. I either bust out befor the break, or make good money in the tounry, but cash was dreadfull,

    this finished it of for me last night donkey, Dreadfull end to a dreadfull night

    shaun09 Small blind  £0.15 £0.15 £8.73
    katoch Big blind  £0.30 £0.45 £5.51
      Your hole cards
    • K
    • A
    		     
    IRNBRU99P Fold     
    swanseaoio Raise  £0.60 £1.05 £11.85
    westslay23 Call  £0.60 £1.65 £86.91
    Trials Fold     
    shaun09 Raise  £1.35 £3.00 £7.38
    katoch All-in  £5.51 £8.51 £0.00
    swanseaoio Call  £5.21 £13.72 £6.64
    westslay23 Fold     
    shaun09 Call  £4.31 £18.03 £3.07
    Flop
       
    • 8
    • 5
    • 9
    		     
    shaun09 All-in  £3.07 £21.10 £0.00
    swanseaoio Call  £3.07 £24.17 £3.57
    shaun09 Show
    • K
    • A
    		   
    katoch Show
    • K
    • J
    		   
    swanseaoio Show
    • 4
    • K
    		   
    Turn
       
    • 7
    		     
    River
       
    • 3
    		     
    swanseaoio Win Flush to the King £22.97  £26.54
    sorry if im hijacking topic i dont mean to
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  • rawhandrawhand
    edited September 2010
    In Response to coping with variance???:
    over the last 3/4 days i can't win a race! im still only raising and folding pre so no limping. none of my ak aq aj kq type hands are hitting. should i properly nit up and wait for hands like aa kk qq jj etc?? or is that just too predictable?
    Posted by donkeyplop
    DITO m8ty i have tried changing the way i play but that was worse, so went back to DYM low stakes sitting tighter than a ducks Ar** won four in a row, not much but a win is a win good luck

    rawhand (Rob)
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  • pryce6pryce6
    edited September 2010
    i'd say move to tournaments for a couple of days. 

    Obv as a run bad expert I can advise you on keeping calm etc but don't change your game, just make sure you are making the right decisions and not letting the variance get to you or change what you are doing.
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  • kirstiikirstii
    edited September 2010
    I think a mistake a lot of people make is changing for the sake of changing and due to tilt(my main 1) like knowing you are getting it in with the best of it but losing then changing what is and has been a winning play in the hope of outplaying varience, been there, done that, donked the cash off.
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  • walesboywalesboy
    edited September 2010
    the advice I've been given for this has been:

    If it is not tilting you - change from cash to tournies/dyms,etc

    If tilting - take a complete break for as long as necessary.

    On the first one at present
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  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN
    edited September 2010
    whos variance? does he leave wet towells for you to pick up? ;o)
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  • BlackFish3BlackFish3
    edited September 2010
    Doh pre-shave:

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  • beanehbeaneh
    edited September 2010
    Here is a graph of the same person. Over 10k hands. He is a winning player, but varaince plays a part 




    One line he runs good one line he runs bad, both lines are the same player and the same sets of hands all in vs the same sets of hands etc tis just what variance they experience.
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  • sikassikas
    edited September 2010
    Just contact customer support and ask them to turn off your Doomswitch, always works for me
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  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop
    edited September 2010
    lol i know someone here who called customer services as they had lost with aces 12/15 times lol.

    not sure what cs were meant to do about that?????? ;)
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  • pryce6pryce6
    edited September 2010
    In Response to Re: coping with variance???:
    lol i know someone here who called customer services as they had lost with aces 12/15 times lol. not sure what cs were meant to do about that?????? ;)
    Posted by donkeyplop
    I contact customer services when my aces hold.
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  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8
    edited September 2010
    I recently had this sort of spell in deepstacks, hadn't cashed in a month, but previously had a week or two where I couldn't stop cashing and winning multiple tournies. In the month I continued to play my same game but everytime I had the double up situation with AK vs A rag I never won, one of them holding and I'd cash/win but it never happened. Amazingly a few says ago i finished 3rd not great but even in that sum1 limps i shove AQ they call K10 and win frustrates me but I know I'm playing right and its just a matter of time before I win when in a dominating position/have the better hand :) .
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  • beanehbeaneh
    edited September 2010
    dudeskin a month is nothing.
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  • theneonstheneons
    edited September 2010
    In Response to Re: coping with variance???:
    i'd say move to tournaments for a couple of days.  Obv as a run bad expert I can advise you on keeping calm etc but don't change your game, just make sure you are making the right decisions and not letting the variance get to you or change what you are doing.
    Posted by pryce6
    +1

    i made this decision for 3 reasons when i wasnt running goooot:

    1. you stand to lose less is you get sucked out
    2. you still can make decent profit if you do actually rungoot.
    3. all of the above.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited September 2010

    How can that picture STILL not have been approved
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  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8
    edited September 2010
    In Response to Re: coping with variance???:
    dudeskin a month is nothing.
    Posted by beaneh
    That's nice to know lol
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  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop
    edited September 2010
    In Response to Re: coping with variance???:
    How can that picture STILL not have been approved
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH
    what picture?

    blackfish's one has been approved!!!

    not sure who it is though? he looks a bit like kevin bloody wilson!!
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  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN
    edited September 2010
    one blackfish posted is that guy from hangover right? quality film....sorry to go of topic
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  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop
    edited September 2010
    In Response to Re: coping with variance???:
    Doh pre-shave:
    Posted by BlackFish3
    ive found one of you pre shave too!!!!!!!!!!!




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  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop
    edited September 2010
    In Response to Re: coping with variance???:
    one blackfish posted is that guy from hangover right? quality film....sorry to go of topic
    Posted by YOUNG_GUN
    thats cool my topic is kinda boring me now!!!

    yeah i thought it was the guy from the hangover!!

    you will love the pic of blackfish if it gets approved!!
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  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop
    edited September 2010
    timing out on the river here really doesnt help my variance either!!!!!!!!!!!!
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    lulu196320 Small blind  £0.02 £0.02 £1.07
    donkeyplop Big blind  £0.04 £0.06 £3.84
      Your hole cards
    • 8
    • Q
    		     
    eddie1874 Fold     
    pauliooooo Fold     
    MICHAEL634 Raise  £0.08 £0.14 £3.90
    brett665 Fold     
    lulu196320 Call  £0.06 £0.20 £1.01
    donkeyplop Call  £0.04 £0.24 £3.80
    Flop
       
    • 7
    • 9
    • K
    		     
    lulu196320 Check     
    donkeyplop Check     
    MICHAEL634 Check     
    Turn
       
    • 10
    		     
    lulu196320 Check     
    donkeyplop Check     
    MICHAEL634 Check     
    River
       
    • J
    		     
    lulu196320 Check     
    donkeyplop Bet  £0.24 £0.48 £3.56
    MICHAEL634 Raise  £0.96 £1.44 £2.94
    lulu196320 Fold     
    donkeyplop Raise  £1.44 £2.88 £2.12
    MICHAEL634 Raise  £1.44 £4.32 £1.50
    donkeyplop Fold     
    MICHAEL634 Muck     
    MICHAEL634 Win  £3.33  £4.83
    MICHAEL634 Return  £0.72 £0.27 £5.55
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  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8
    edited September 2010
    After he raises 96p your better off just shoving as he won't fold.
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  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop
    edited September 2010
    yeah how i wish id done that now lol!

    soooooo anoying grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
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  • scottiebscottieb
    edited September 2010

    Most of us experience bad spells like this on here but you just need to ride it out.
    The danger is you will become more restrained when playing these hands and it will affect how you play
    just stick to the odds and play your normal game it will all come good in the end.

    Not getting why you never caleed at least in the hand above?

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  • donkeyplopdonkeyplop
    edited September 2010
    In Response to Re: coping with variance???:
    Most of us experience bad spells like this on here but you just need to ride it out. The danger is you will become more restrained when playing these hands and it will affect how you play just stick to the odds and play your normal game it will all come good in the end. Not getting why you never caleed at least in the hand above?
    Posted by scottieb
    hi i timed out!!

    grrrrrrrrrrrrr
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