Confused brain with odds - very newbie question

silkworm1

Hi everyone,

Up until january this year, when I started playing poker, ive never gambled in my life - so i was pretty new to odds and what they all meant. Anyway, excuse over lol - im a bit confused between counting outs and the rule of 2 and 4.

Please bare with me....

on the flop, I have 4 to the flush - 9 outs, 47 cards unseen. 47 - 9 = 38 (38 to 9) or 4.2 to 1
Following the rule of 4 (Solomon) - multiply outs by 4 and subtract number in excess of 8. 9 x 4 = 36 - 1 = 35% chance of hitting flush if you get to see the turn and river, Thats more like 3 to 1?
Have I worked that out right?

If so, after the turn card and ur still 4 to the flush, the odds drop massive following the rule of 2 (18%), but the change in odds the first way is the 2nd confusion e.g counting outs and subtracting etc. 46 - 9 = 37 (37 to 9) or 4.1 to 1

I read about the rule of 4 and 2 in harrington - cant remember where I read the cards seen/unseen bit from tho.

Would appreciate any help. I'm slowly building my miniscule bank roll, so im sure, understanding this properly wont hurt lol.

Si

DeucesLive

Well, the simple version is every out, or live card, is worth approx. 2% each street- so on the flop, a flush draw has 9 outs, or roughly 36%. An open end straight draw has 8 outs, so approx. 32%. If you're looking for a set, the odds are 20% of hitting it preflop, or 8% if you miss the flop.

It's not 100% accurate, but this should be accurate enough to calculate odds quickly- if you're on the flop, an out is worth 4% each, on the turn, 2% each.

Always remember the 4% on flop only counts if you're going allin- a common mistake is thinking you have 36% chance of hitting a flush and using that as your odds to call a flop bet- that assumes you're going to see the river for free, which you probably won't.

silkworm1

that is a much easier way of working it out - mo chance of confusion. Even my brain can cope with that!

Thank you

Si

LOL_RAISE

when it is "4 to 1" this means that you will miss 4 times for every 1 time you hit, so it is the fractional equivalent of 1/5, or 20% so a flush is ~35% to hit which is roughly 2 times you miss for every once you hit = 2 to 1 against or 1/3

beaneh

In Response to Re: Confused brain with odds - very newbie question:

when it is "4 to 1" this means that you will miss 4 times for every 1 time you hit, so it is the fractional equivalent of 1/5, or 20% so a flush is ~35% to hit which is roughly 2 times you miss for every once you hit = 2 to 1 against or 1/3
Posted by LOL_RAISE

it's fiddy fiddy obv. hit or you don't.

silkworm1

never thought of it as been a fraction 2-1 or 3-1 (1/3 or 1/4), which wasnt helping with my final odds calc.Will all help once ive got my percentage right - again thanks for that DeucesLive.

So, If im 4 to the flush on the flop, that gives me 36% using DuecesLive calculation. So im a 2-1 underdog to hit the flush by the river. If someone shoves and I call, I will loose 2 out of every 3 hands. On the turn that changes to 18% which gives me approx 5-1 to hit the flush - is that right?

Its not that obvious Beaneh - lol - not for some of us mere mortals who only have 3 grey cells and one of them's on a permanent tea break!

Cheers guys

Si

LOL_RAISE

on the turn you ahve 18% which is 4-1 against or 1/5 as fraction.


yes you will lost 2/3 times with the flush draw on the flop. but aslong as your opponent bets less than the size of the pot then you will be getting atleast 2:1 on your call, making it both fun degen gambling and profitable at the same time, hoorah

Spikelad

Silkworm this will become second nature to you the more you play,Lol Raise gives you the answer to how this should be played,if you are getting the correct odds to hit your flush then go for it.