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Overthinking things? Or right on the money? **WARNING: It's a Long Post!**
I'm sure the regs on the forums have noticed I haven't been around for the last week or 2. The last time I played on the site, I got a slap around the head by the boss and swiftly got a verbal warning for playing poker rather than working (whoops!), but that's just a coincidence, that's not the reason why i've stopped playing here (or online in general, for that matter).
The reason for my mini disappearance goes back to a post that I made on a thread on these forums that was about when people think its a good idea to withdraw some money from their online account. I made a sarcastic comment which basically said that I havent made a withdrawal in some time so the OP shouldn't take too much notice of my advice. I remember OMahonyO saying that he was surprised by that, which got me thinking.
After taking some advice from phil12uk at the start of the year, I lumped some money into my account, and set-up a spreadsheet where I could tally all of my results. I put loads of funky filters and formulas and stuff on it so I could really analyse where I have/not been successful. He gave me this advice because I was getting really frustrated treading water at .05/.10 (which was all I could afford, I only had 1 part-time job at Tesco at the time), and when I asked what I should do he said that I felt I was a much better player than that level, and should take a gamble playing higher to prevent my game from going stale. It'd be risky, I wouldn't be playing under any sort of suitable BRM strategy, i'd just be gambling, basically. He mentioned a few players that appeared to have done a similar thing and succeeded doing so.
I started with £150 in the account, and basically played .10/.20 and preferably .15/.30 exclusively. After about a month and a half it had gone up to £500, and I was able to continue playing at those levels with comfortable BRM, and I had the odd dabble at .25/.50. In the next month, it had slipped to £250, and since then (about March) my balance has never gone outside £200-£400. I have not withdrawn once since I started that spreadsheet, EIGHT months ago. I haven't had to re-deposit either, though, and as it stands I am still in profit against that original £150.
I consider myself a good player, and therefore I don't think that i'm being too ambitious by saying that I should have withdrawn at least a couple of times in that 8 month period.
Now, since Spring (after getting a Full-Time job, hence being able to comfortably afford playing) my local Gala have started running regular cash games and I have made a point of playing there once a week, if not more. I can never be 100% certain of this as I have only been tracking my Live results since July, but I am fairly sure that i'm winning a decent amount of money from those cash games, usually playing .50/1 or .25/.50. Certainly, since I have been recording my live results in July i'm up £300 in about 6 visits.
I come back now to OMahonyO's surprise at me not withdrawing, and another thread where I believe he also contributed greatly to the discussion - the difference between the standard of play online vs live. Forgive me if i'm wrong, but I believe it was OMahonyO who posted something along the lines of "NL20 Online = NL200 Live". Considering that statement, and the fact that I haven't withdrawn online in a long time, I decided that it might be a good idea to stop playing online, and try to play more live poker as it appears I am a winning player live, but only a break even player online.
Considering what I have said above, and using your past experiences vs me and using your own judgement as to my ability as a player, would you think I am making a mountain out of a molehill or that I am making a well-considered decision? After all, I'm only 20, and it's not like i'm getting bored of the game or anything.
Any advice or thoughts, particularly after having read all of that (!!!), will of course be greatly appreciated.
Comments
That doesn't apply here. NL20 here is often like play money chips.
You have had some decent results live, and thats because most of the guys who play there are old and clueless but the varience will come and it will totally smash you to bits.
I would say that it depends how many hours that you have been playing online to actually judge if you should be withdrawing or not.
My advice would be to play both, and when you do play online then play 4 tables of NL20....also I think you hvae been going slightly above your roll so I would say stick there until you hit about a £600 or so.
On the other hand if you go to playing trnys (which is my game ofcourse you may prefer cash) teh there are bigger swings, and you are far more likely to win a trny for £100 off of a £10 - £20 buyin (like you did in the £22 deep).. If i were you, ask yourself do you prefer the low limit cash games online? The bigger swings live (where you could be sitting down with up to £100) or do you prefer the MTTs... If MTTs are the answer then get urself in the £22 deep or £110 weekly if your BR allows it, as they are the closest format of MTT to cah and therefore should suit your strengths and with the increased chance of a big BR boost.
I do believe you are a good player, but not sure if you believe in your own ability to move up to a higher stake (which you are capable of). Also be honest with yourself are you going in ahead? If yes then what else can you do?
Hope this helps you look at it a bit differently
Spk soon and hopefully see you at Gala soon
Charlie
Play the £22 deepie - u say urself that u have good results in that (cos ur playing the players who appreciate moves a bit more rather than the all in monkeys)
Have a cash table up alongside it - prob .15/.30.
Keep the chatting to us lot to a minimal and focus on winning some money.
That way u are risking £52 of ur bankroll in 2 games which u should do well at.
BTW when u were at £500 from £150 if you'd withdrawn you'd have made £350 profit which is more than ur current live winnings :P
You need to come back, focus on ur game and play on the low stakes cash here as u would in the higher live cash games.
The reason your comments surprised me on that other post, was because I had you down as a definite winning player, due to your thought processes of certain hands and situations etc, and I always looked forward to reading your posts. You dont have to make regular withdrawals to be a winning player, you may just be building your roll or whatever.
I dont recall sitting at a table with you so I`m just going off what I see in this forum.
Sounds like Phil12uk and others are correct in thinking you are maybe a bit advanced for NL20, however, I wouldnt agree with advice to move up levels.....yet. The best player in the world could quite easily go broke playing NL50 with a £300 roll.
What might be an idea is to basically dumb down a bit, NL20 is pretty soft on here and just playing your cards is enough, without any fancy play stuff, or trying to read too much into others actions etc. This will give you a whole lot more confidence when you do take a shot higher up, and you will by then have the funds to ride out a bad stretch.
Also, it would be interesting to know how many hands you played that says you are breakeven player. I have PT3 and stats from another site and I am an overall winner over ~50,000 hands. There is however a stretch in that lot where I have broken even for ~3000 hands, so I`m not sure if you have given it the chance it needs.
One more thing, It is a very easy transition for someone who is competent online to go into live poker, but it is not the same vice versa
I had you down as a winning player and your thought processes seem pretty good and as said could be too advanced for 20nl where in fact you end up on a double bluff but the fact you are two stages of thought ahead of the other player results in them calling your bluff due to the cuteness of your play which they can't see.
Keep at it though, the withdrawals will come. It was actually me that started the thread you were talking about in your original post regarding withdrawals asI was unsure on whether to withdraw or move up.
I was considering moving up to 100nl with my BR as I had worked my way up to having a comfortable roll for 100NL, but for the time being I don't think i'm mentally strong enough to deal with losing 3 buy-ins in a session of 100NL where as if that happens on 50NL I'm not happy but I won't be going ballistic. Therefore I have left myself 30 buy-ins for 50NL and perhaps next time I feel Im rolled for 100nl then thats the time to take for me to move up.
You have to play limits you are comfortable with is really what I'm trying to say. But you also can't play beneath the limits that you are comfortable with. If losing buyins at a certain level doesn't bother you in the slightest then you will play too careless.
Live is definitely easier however as you mention. I play £1/2 at my local casino as opposed the the 50NL tables here and find it much easier than the online games and all of my big wins to date have come live and not here where most of my success comes through grinding which can really take its toll on you. anyway I've rambled enough now!
Good luck!
If i can add my tuppenny worth, read 'Mere Novice's answer again .. brilliant !!