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Would you value bet here?
I've played with the villain a fair bit before and he see me as aggro, especially in this session as I've been raising to isolate the fish quite a bit who's been playing most hands. I'm down a couple of buy-ins at the table too so he might think I'm tilting I guess.
He likes to make moves postflop, and I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a straight draw because he would raise this on the flop or turn (he often likes bluff/semi-bluff raising the turn against me in a 2way pot when I'm the pf raiser).
Looking back my turn bet probably should have been a bit bigger to set up a river shove more easily.
He likes to make moves postflop, and I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a straight draw because he would raise this on the flop or turn (he often likes bluff/semi-bluff raising the turn against me in a 2way pot when I'm the pf raiser).
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| villain | Small blind | £0.50 | £0.50 | £126.46 | |
| fish | Big blind | £1.00 | £1.50 | £102.13 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| yb | Raise | £4.00 | £5.50 | £100.38 | |
| brandygirl | Fold | ||||
| Nosebleed_ | Call | £4.00 | £9.50 | £265.07 | |
| villain | Call | £3.50 | £13.00 | £122.96 | |
| fish | Call | £3.00 | £16.00 | £99.13 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| villain | Check | ||||
| fish | Check | ||||
| yb | Bet | £11.00 | £27.00 | £89.38 | |
| Nosebleed_ | Fold | ||||
| villain | Call | £11.00 | £38.00 | £111.96 | |
| fish | Fold | ||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| villain | Check | ||||
| yb | Bet | £22.00 | £60.00 | £67.38 | |
| villain | Call | £22.00 | £82.00 | £89.96 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| villain | Check | ||||
Comments
The most likely hand has to be a 9 here for me, any overpair and he would probably have got busy earlier- J10 is another possibility I suppose. I guess you have to consider just how likely he is to call with a hand you have beating- if he was on a busted draw, he's never calling but may shove and give you a problem, if he has a 9 he *might* call if his opinion of you is that bad, and if he has an 8 or 3 then you're in trouble.
For me I'd be checking that behind, there's just not enough hands out there that he's likely to call with, and if he's got enough game to shove allin, I don't see how you could call it.
*edit* just noticed you said fairly sure he's not on a busted draw. That changes things a bit I suppose- it all hinges on whether his respect for you is low enough to call with a pair on an already double paired board. Is he likely to slowplay an overpair? Still think I'd check and make a note on what he has- if you got him beat, it's still a fairly substantial pot.