Folding the nuts in a heads up pot?

DOHHHHHHH

Ok, 2 things, stack sizes......and pot size......

The board is  Ten, Jack, Queen, king, with 2 hearts and 2 clubs.

You hold Ace 3 of spades, and your opponent 3 bets you all in on the turn.

How small must the pot be for you to consider folding here? It's pretty obvious the guy has the current nuts also, but may also have the flush draw to mean he is free-rolling to win the whole pot?

If you were playing 100xbb stacks at the start of the hand, how small does the pot need to be for you to fold?

Would you fold if the pot is 10xbb? (has potential to be 200xbb) - 20xbb?

Then starting stacks of.....

 200xbb?

300xbb?

400xbb?

Do you ever fold??????

Batkin88

have you seen my thread near enough same thing well until cards turned over.
I think its a call HU unless you can get away very early for cheap, but he may be doing it with the 9 flush draw or just the flush draw

DeucesLive

Well, it becomes mathematical really... if the cards were face up (this assumes you have a ROCK solid read) and your opponent is 4 to a flush and already with the nut straight, you'd have 8 cards in play with 44 unknown, 9 of which make the nut flush- so oppo has a 20% shot at hitting his flush.

Assuming both 100bb deep, and 0 in the pot, you haven't got the odds- 80% of the time you pay 100bb to win 100bb-rake, 20% you lose 100bb.

100bb in the pot and both 100bb deep, you're getting 150bb-rake 80% of the time, losing 100bb the other 20%- unless I'm mistaken, that's dead on the correct odds without the rake.

So I think the amount in the pot has to exceed what you have back, assuming your read is correct. There's more than a small chance you're against a maniac with only a flush draw, or the made straight without a draw to the flush. I would take a stab in the dark and say the pot would need to be around 75% of my stack size prior to the move being made.

DOHHHHHHH

he pot wud need to be 75% of ur remaining stack size? - to call right???

Can you give me an example of where you would fold then? just with pot size and stacks......?

Im not very good at working all the maths n stuff out.

yb

basically if you know for sure he has the nuts and is freerolling to the flush, the size of his bet/raise has to be more than ~2x the pot for the fold to be correct (I think).

So just say the pot on the turn was 20bbs.
He then open shoves his remaining 90bbs (assuming starting stacks of 100bbs), you should fold.

DeucesLive

Where would I fold... well, with nothing already invested, I think it has to be a fold. If we both have £200 back and the pot is worth £10, it's still got to be a fold- nothing suggests you're ever going to break even there.

I suppose the overriding factor is- how many times does he have the fl draw compared to how many times is he making an outright bluff (any time he doesn't hold the A)? If he always, ALWAYS has the A, it becomes a lot easier- if there's any possibility whatsoever he's doing this with a 9, it makes it quite tough.

Assuming he always has a chop, at least, and say he has a flush draw 75% of the time... 85% of the time you're chopping, 15% you're losing.

With a 5% rake (standard?) and £100 in the pot, with £150 back (66% of the pot) if you get put allin, you're calling to win £200 (less 20 for rake) 85% of the time, and to lose £150 the remaining 15%. That means you'll be paying £150 to win £130.50 on average.

With a pot of £150, and £200 back (75% of the pot) you're winning £261.25 85% of the time, and losing £200 the remaining 15%. Now you're expecting to win just over £192 on average, with £200 the price to call.

This is assuming you have zero chance of winning. Factor in any chance of winning, and the price goes up- let's say you have an 80% shot at chopping, 15% of losing, 5% of winning.

Sticking with the 75% pot example, you'd win £261.25 80%, lose £200 15%, and win £522.5 5%. Making it a price of £200 to win £205 on average.

If you think there's a chance that 1/20 hands he's bluffing, if the pot is 75% or more of your stack, it's ok to call the allin (in my book). If there's zero chance of bluffing, it'd need to be around 80/85% or more.

Hope that's ok and not too mathy still... it's a bit difficult to answer any other way, for me...

LOL_RAISE

0.8*(0.5*potsize) - 0.2*(stacksize) = 0 would give you the be breakeven point

so 0.4*potsize = 0.2*stacksize

2*potsize = stacksize

well done to mr yb


deuces if you want to include rake in it you have to remember than rake is capped

DeucesLive

In Response to Re: Folding the nuts in a heads up pot?:

0.8*(0.5*potsize) - 0.2*(stacksize) = 0 would give you the be breakeven point so 0.4*potsize = 0.2*stacksize 2*potsize = stacksize well done to mr yb deuces if you want to include rake in it you have to remember than rake is capped
Posted by LOL_RAISE

ahhhh, that's something I didn't know, I'm not massively experienced with cash- especially upper limits. What's it capped at?

beaneh

ONLY FOLD IF THE FLUSH IS GOING TO GET THERE OBV

LOL_RAISE

most sites $3 i thought i read it was £1.20 on sky but not sure

yb

on sky its £1.20 hu, £1.80 when its >2 players

shelski

Response to Folding the nuts in a heads up pot?:
Errrr yes folding is good here.
1. you can only be outdrawn.
2. if you are not you lose to rake. this reminded me of a person i was speaking to that folded a royal flush on the board to 2 all-ins for same reason.

pr1nnyraid

In Response to Re: Folding the nuts in a heads up pot?:

Response to Folding the nuts in a heads up pot? : Errrr yes folding is good here. 1. you can only be outdrawn. 2. if you are not you lose to rake. this reminded me of a person i was speaking to that folded a royal flush on the board to 2 all-ins for same reason.
Posted by shelski

are split pots raked?

i mean in a live game

LOL_RAISE

yes