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SPUKT Grand Final Exit Hand
At the risk of slightly spoiling my blog, I wanted to gather opinions on my exit hand. Hopefully if Norman gets the opportunity to look through the forums he can post his opinion as he was on my table at the time.
Situation:
Blinds: 3,000/6,000 with an ante of 600
My stack: Around 65k
Average: Around 80k
Players left: 31, 4 off the money
My position: UTG+1
My hand: A9 off
Do we ship it in here? We have just over 5 rounds left if we do not play a hand, which I believe will leave me just short of the money as everyone else will be tightening up. I'm 1 hand away from seeing the BB and then the SB which will bring my stack right down to 55k. We're 4 busts away from the money so no-one is ever calling thin, nobody at the table has more than double my stack and my table had been particularly tight in calling all-ins, so most people are only probably only calling 77+ and AQ+. Needless to say with those calling ranges i'm not looking at getting called, I just want the blinds and antes which will be an addition of 16% to my stack. I guess the biggest question here is will I avoid running into these calling hands often enough to make my all-in a profitable play? I refuse to accept that small raise-folding is a viable option because a small raise would be to 15k, leaving me with 50k, and then i'll lose a further 10k when I go through the blinds, leaving me with 40k and next to no fold equity whatsoever. I guess the one last important factor in this is that I did not want to just cash in this thing, I wanted to win it, and there was one other person on the table that openly said he just wanted to cash and I believe there was at least 2 others on the table that were secretly in the same boat.
Situation:
Blinds: 3,000/6,000 with an ante of 600
My stack: Around 65k
Average: Around 80k
Players left: 31, 4 off the money
My position: UTG+1
My hand: A9 off
Do we ship it in here? We have just over 5 rounds left if we do not play a hand, which I believe will leave me just short of the money as everyone else will be tightening up. I'm 1 hand away from seeing the BB and then the SB which will bring my stack right down to 55k. We're 4 busts away from the money so no-one is ever calling thin, nobody at the table has more than double my stack and my table had been particularly tight in calling all-ins, so most people are only probably only calling 77+ and AQ+. Needless to say with those calling ranges i'm not looking at getting called, I just want the blinds and antes which will be an addition of 16% to my stack. I guess the biggest question here is will I avoid running into these calling hands often enough to make my all-in a profitable play? I refuse to accept that small raise-folding is a viable option because a small raise would be to 15k, leaving me with 50k, and then i'll lose a further 10k when I go through the blinds, leaving me with 40k and next to no fold equity whatsoever. I guess the one last important factor in this is that I did not want to just cash in this thing, I wanted to win it, and there was one other person on the table that openly said he just wanted to cash and I believe there was at least 2 others on the table that were secretly in the same boat.
Comments
My options woulda gone in this order mate:
(1) FOLD - saves the hassle and the danger of losing with raggy ace. You have 5 rounds and in that time ur bound to get a better situation in a better position.
(2) SHOVE - no point raising as ur gonna fold to a shove so take all the worries away from u.
(3) RAISE - either min or 3x....... both pointless as ur pot committed and not gonna get away from hand
(4) CALL - u got to final 31 so I'm not even going to go there with the pointlessness of that
I often feel that people are too quick to pull the trigger. 4 off the money, this is a clear fold.
Wow, that's an awkward one.
We can dismiss a Call, or a Raise. It's all-in or Fold.
If we shove, we ONLY get Called by a hand that is beating us, & we are almost certainly on a 3-outer. So all we stand to gain is the Blinds, but we stand to go Busto if Called.
Also, we are UTG on a full Table, so lots of players to get through, though I agree, the looming Bubble & the Table Dynamic is in our favour.
Given the Risk/Reward of Jamming, I think I let the Blinds go through, then look for a better positional spot.
It's very close - an argument can be made for either Passing or Jamming.
Calling or pot-sized Raising is tez though.
So, considering how rarely we're getting called behind, the general consensus is that it was a rash move?
Let the Blinds go through, & if an unopoened pot arises on the Button or Cut-Off, jam with air. The odds are better.
But you know all that......
Since people are debating calling an all-in with pocket 5's in that other thread, and in a spot where the range of the shovee is huge, there's no guarantee that we're only getting called by a hand we're way behind to, since there will be people who will not call with those hands in this spot. There is of course a very reasonable chance that we ARE getting called by pocket 5's, 4's etc. in which case we're STILL only a 4% or 5% dog with our two overs! So by factoring in the occasions someone tightish would fold 5's to your shove in this spot in the hope of laddering or "waiting for a better occasion" (whenever that is), and this is nearing a pure 50/50. THEN Factor in your UTG+1 position and people are going to give you credit for a hand, so we might get another A9, or AT or even AJ to lay down too.
Also, you're saying you want to win the tourney. You're nowhere near on course for a win from this spot, and now is the time to shove, while people are still playing tight and you have fold equity. Once the bubble bursts a lot more players will look you up with hands that are marginal favourites, and those are the spots we want to dodge. I don't see why people argue in favour of calling this and that for a coin flip, when in fact you can make your decisions much better by getting 'em in first from a variety of positions.
INSTA FOLD
obvious as it was your exit hand u shoved and got called by bigger ace or a pair, unlucky youngun
What exactly are you doing up at 8am Mr Mackem Sir?
You wet the bed or summat?
I may have got the wrong end of the stick here, but "waiting for a better situation" is a phrase coined by the great Micky Wernick, who was European Player of the Year in 2005, & has had nearly a million dollars in Live Tourney cashes.
Micky is an Old-Skool grinder, who never loses chips easily, & "wait for a better situation" is his mantra when faced with marginal decisions, such as the hand in question, partcularly involving poor position or "in-between" hands. he asks himself, before making the play, "can I find a better situation, with my stack, & these Blinds, & this table, taking into account all other variables?". It's served him - & me - very well indeed.
Have a good weekend bud.
You've got 65,000 - and a round is costing you 13,500, wait for two orbits, you've only got 38,000. Even if you get a double up through, you're on 76 - not really much better than where you are at the time.
Get it in and pray, as is evident, people are only calling heavy - and if you get called you're 99% likely to be behind. I'm still shoving here if my intention is to win it.
I'm not going to rip into you as you know(because you are a good player), that what you did was marginal, as you were really only looking to get the blinds.
So my thoughts, as i would have played it, are i look down and see A9 off, second to act, is this hand and position one with which i want to go to war and put my tourny on the line. My answer to that question is no.
If i was on the button, even if there were a couple of callers then i would then push them over the line.
IMO early position A10 is like A2.
col
I agree with waiting for a better spot to gamble (which is what you're doing) for your tourney early on but when you reach these latter stages it's time to man up, or hit the rail.
@Lee - As it happens the man behind me called with Aces, and the title was a bit of typo as this was my Penultimate hand, as I just had him covered.
@All - I understand that this is a marginal spot, and to tell you the truth as I was sliding my chips over the line I was still having second thoughts (but I had already announced all-in so I was committed to the decision). My rationale behind my play is pretty much explained in the OP (Opening Post), but i'll go through it again:
I was down to just over 10BB's, and when you consider the antes that is considerably less powerful than a 10BB stack where no antes are involved. I had a table that was very tight in dealing with all-ins, the only hands that were ever calling were premiums. I know that A9 is a usually a big dog against those hands, but I figured that I could get the move through often enough to make the play close to profitable in the long run, since it's very rare to run into hands that can call me even with 7 players left to act.
Primarily, and this was the big swinger in the decision, I wanted to WIN the tournament, not cash. We were nearing the bubble, which would make the table even tighter than it already was, and there was at least 2 people on the table who were certainly there 'just to cash' and were desperately holding onto their smallstacks in order to do so.
My thanks though for everyones comments. I know that when you tell me I made a poor decision you do not mean any offence by it, if I did take offence to it then I wouldn't have posted in the first place. I'm very greatful to those that have given their feedback, and rest assured next time I push UTG+1 i'll be a lot stronger than A9