Bet sizing - Trying to get my stack in the middle with flopped set

silentbob

I've been at this table for around 15 minutes or so. There's been nothing out of the ordinary that's made me sit up & really take notice of anyone in particular but I have come up against player x before & have the following notes on him:

Limp/calls PF raises (5x+) from utg with rag aces & will bet out on low flops even if missed

Now obviously it helps that I flopped a set but given what I know about this particular player there's a strong chance that he's holding some sort of Ax hand. Granted, he could also have an overset but AA is unlikely as I'm sure he would've 3 bet pre & if he has 88 then it's just UL imo. The reason I flatted the flop is so that I can give him the opportunity to commit more on the turn especially if he does hold a random ace. 

Now when he leads out on the turn again I want to get as much in the pot as I can to make a river shove easier without scaring him off, so my question here is that assuming my read based on my notes is correct & he does have Ax, what sort of raise is best here?

Also, is there an argument for re-raising the flop or is flatting for the reasons stated OK there?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
X	Small blind		£0.04	£0.04	£11.69
	Big blind		£0.08	£0.12	£4.87
	Your hole cards	2 2
	Fold
silentbob	Raise		£0.24	£0.36	£7.60
	Fold
	Fold
X	Call		£0.20	£0.56	£11.49
	Fold
Flop
		2 8 A
X	Check
silentbob	Bet		£0.24	£0.80	£7.36
X	Raise		£0.48	£1.28	£11.01
silentbob	Call		£0.24	£1.52	£7.12
Turn
		J
X	Bet		£0.72	£2.24	£10.29
silentbob	Raise		???

LOL_RAISE

to get a pot size shove on the river you take the size of the pot on the turn (1.52) and take it away from the effective stacks (7.12) and then divide it by three.

7-12-1.52 = 5.62    5.62/3 = 1.88

you can check it by saying if we bet 1.88 on the turn villain calls the pot is now 3.76+1.52 = 5.28 and our effective stacks are 7.12-1.88 = 5.24

i hope my maths in this example is correct

DOHHHHHHH

Don't flat the flop - make it £1.50 (more) At this level, he's not raise folding the flop, EVER. This is the best chance to get the money in. If u wanna slow down after this, spose there cud be an argument for it, on dry boards, to disguise your hand abit but I still wouldnt bother.......

You need to think about cards which could worry his holdings, more so than your own betting patterns.

On that flop, at micros, on sky, if he had ACE - t/j/q/k......I think he will put alot of money in with it if u ask him to.

When he min raises - logic tells you he has one of those hands, so now is the time to get paid.

Once u flat........

And he leads the turn, I'd be doing cartwheels. Another chance to get paid, but we need to get some in now...

I'd make it £3

I really dislike the flat on the flop though, he's given u a great opportunity to get stacks in.

.......................????

N1CK

i agree with Dohhh lead out on this flop, for the sake of balance you would make a c-bet on this flop if you missed so bet out your normal c-bet size, i like to bet 3/4 pot and il fire every street vs fish, when your looking to get stacks in by river just work out what the pot will grow by if you bet half pot compared to 3/4 it makes a big difference 

edit ok so i didnt read this post properly, anyway as above bet out more on the flop around 40/ 42 then if he click raises you i would just flat then lead out again, also dont mind min raising back as it really upsets them and they love to spz out..

zing

cbet a non retarded size, aka 48+ and take it from there

silentbob

Cheers peeps, I know that bet sizing is a problem in my game so it's something I'm trying to work on.

For some reason I thought I actually bet a bit more on the flop than I did (my normal bet here would usually be around 36-40p) so his turn lead was a real blessing.

As it turns out he had AJ so that turn card was pretty perfect for me & it all went in on the river anyway,  but I knew I'd missed a trick with this hand somewhere & I'm not always gonna get that lucky.