Christmas footy betting (boxing day, 28th & 29th)

silentbob

Well it appears that the weather is going to play havoc with the footy fixtures again on boxing day with 13 fixtures already falling foul & there's a planned inspection at Blackpool for midday too so there could be one or two more called off yet.

Having said that I'm taking the gamble & getting my bets on early as Sunday will probably be spent topping up my alcohol content whilst watching us fail to win on the road again at lunchtime, followed by a trip round to the mother in law in the afternoon!

Four bets for me for Sunday.

Main Acca:

Bolton to beat West Brom (H) @ 11/10

Huddersfield to beat Hartlepool (H) @ 4/6

Wycombe to beat Hereford (H) @ 4/7

These 3 are paying a very decent 9/2 so I've slapped a tenner on 

I know it's Christmas but this price on Bolton is way too generous. Liverpool are the only side to win at the Meccano, sorry, Reebok stadium this season & they were really fortunate to get those points. Yes, Bolton have lost 2 of their last 3 but both of those came on the road against mega rich Man City & Sunderland who have yet to be beaten at the Stadium of Light so far. They've got goals in them & have scored 13 in their last 4 at home. West Brom had last weekend off when their game against Wolves was called off so will be a little fresher coming into this game. However they're not the greatest travellers with only 2 wins from 9 on the road so far (albeit those victories did come at Arsenal & Everton!). They lost last time out at Villa & Bolton should be too strong for them here.

Huddersfield appear to have found their form again of late having won their last 2, the last of which came two weeks ago against league leaders Brighton. Like last season it's at the Galpharm where they're strongest as they've only lost 2 from 10 there so far this time round. Usually Hartlepool are not the greatest of travellers but they have won their last 2 on the road (both 0-1 against Tranmere & Bournemouth). Both sides come into this game a little fresher as neither played last weekend & the terriers certainly have the upper hand in this fixture having won 3 of the last 4 in Yorkshire.

Wycombe have played just once in the last 3 weeks & more importantly that game brought them 3 points at home to high flying Bury (it was also only Bury's 2nd away defeat of the season). Hereford are rock bottom of the football league & have not won in their last 5, losing their last 3 straight. All 3 of those defeats came on the road but crucially two of them came against fellow strugglers Lincoln & Bradford. With some of their promotion rivals not playing on Saturday Wycombe know that 3 points here helps put the pressure on (I'm a firm believer that points on the board are always better than games in hand).

Super Long Shot Acca:

Fulham/West Ham - DRAW @ 12/5

Spurs to beat Villa (A) @ 11/8

Norwich to beat Palace (A) @ 6/4

Portsmouth to beat Millwall (H) @ 11/10

Doncaster to beat Derby (A) @ 11/4

These 5 are paying a whopping 158/1 so only a quid staked here.

Fulham have proved to be a tough nut to crack again this season & if they could just turn some of the draws into wins they'd be comfortably safe & maybe even pushing for a European spot again. As it is they've drawn more games than any other team in the top flight this season with 10 from 17. Before our game at Blackburn last week Avram Grant was allegedly given 3 games to save his job. Gold & Sullivan shouldn't have bothered with that & should've just sacked him on the spot. 2 wins from 18 & a -15 goal difference just isn't good enough. Like Fulham we seem capable of getting a draw from this game but we need all 3 points.

I've backed Spurs here partly because of form & partly because of the price. Prior to their 2-1 victory at home to neighbours West Brom a couple of weeks ago, Villa had lost their last 3 on the bounce. Stephen Ireland appears to be on his way out the door along with Dunne & Carew & even Ashley Young is being touted about. Credit where it's due Spurs are ticking along nicely again this season & find themselves in 5th spot & a good chance to kick on & claim a Champions League spot for the 2nd successive season. Van Der Vaart is back & they come into this game on the back of a 6 game unbeaten run. 

Norwich are a slightly riskier pick here but as part of a long shot they're well worth it at this price. The bulk of Palace's points have come at Selhurst this season which means you can't entirely rule them out of taking something from this game. However, Norwich seem to have picked up from where they left off last season & are pushing for a 2nd successive promotion. They've lost only 1 of their last 8 in the league & have won 3 of their last 4, the last of which was a 1-2 win at fellow high flyers Coventry last week.

It's a mid table clash at Fratton Park & tbh, it is one that could go either way. Despite their troubles Pompey have only lost 2 at home this season & are more than capable of getting the points here. Like their opponents, Portsmouth didn't play last weekend but they have won their last 2 against promotion contenders Swansea & Norwich. Both of those wins came on the road as well. Millwall also come into this game on the back of some decent form themselves with 2 wins & 2 draws in their last 4 but they're also capable of dropping points when you least expect it (like the 6-1 home defeat to Watford back in September). These two sides have already met in the league this season & Pompey took the points in a 0-1 win at the New Den back in October.

This is a seriously huge price on Donny & one that I'm prepared to take a gamble on. They come into this game in buoyant mood following last weekend's 2-1 win over Middlesbrough & also the news that Sean O'Driscoll appears to be staying with them as well. They're currently 4 points off the play off spots with a game in hand over a few of the teams above them & 3 points here will see them leapfrog their opponents. Derby come into this game on the back of some atrocious form with 1 win & 5 defeats in their last 6 league games. 

Under/Over Acca:

Fulham/West Ham - Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6

Newcastle/Man City - Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11

Wolves/Wigan - Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6

Villa/Spurs - Over 2.5 goals @ 5/6

Ipswich/Watford - Over 2.5 goals @ 5/6

Sheff Utd/Hull - Under 2.5 goals @ 8/13

These 6 are paying a nice 28/1 so I've had a couple of quid on this.

The good thing with this bet is the fact that I won't be cheering for any team in particular (with the obvious exception, of course!). 

For my final bet for boxing day I've decided to stick my free £5 bet on a correct score of 1-1 at Craven Cottage. In many respects ANY points away from home are good points but we need all 3 from here on in.

Good luck if you're having a go on Sunday.

May I also wish everyone a great Christmas. I'm more excited about it this year as my daughter is 2 1/2 now & this is the first year she's really understood what's going on. Santa will be getting a cold Bud & a pork pie in this household

Jay

silentbob

Well the correct score & under/over bet is out the window already but if we manage 3 points here then I really couldn't care less

DOHHHHHHH

Leeds

Cardiff

Pompey

QPR

Man City.

£5 @ 57/1

BADBOY985

CHELSEA look massive at 15/8 to beat arsenal.
united and chelsea have got the measure or the gunners by defending deep,blocking the centre of the park and forcing them wide. arsenal havent beaten either in ages and that wont change tommorrow

silentbob

I quite like the look of the draw @ 21/10 for tonight myself. Might even have a cheeky couple of quid on the 2-2 @ 14/1 for a long shot

silentbob

I've changed the title of this thread cos quite frankly I cba to create a new thread for the midweek games!

I've got one definite bet on for tomorrow with an away day long shot special if a couple of the games get the go ahead tomorrow morning.

Main Bet:

Stoke to beat Fulham (H) @ 10/11

Burnley to beat Scunthorpe (H) @ 4/7

Norwich to beat Sheff Utd (H) @ 5/6

These 3 are paying a decent 9/2 so I've had a tenner on it.

It's hard to believe but Fulham actually have a worse away record than my boys!!! With 5 draws & 3 defeats from 8 on the road this season it's unlikely they'll be getting their first points away from Craven Cottage at the Britannia. In fact, they haven't won on the road in the league since the opening day of last season when they won 1-0 at Portsmouth. Fulham come into this game on the back of some poor form which has seen them slip into the bottom 3. Their last league victory came at the end of October when they beat Wigan 2-0 & since then they've drawn 4 & lost 4. Stoke come into this game in decent form with only 1 defeat in their last 7 home & away. They took all 3 points away at Blackburn on boxing day & will fancy their chances of maximum points here. They've already beaten Fulham once this season when they won 2-0 at home in the Carling cup back in September plus they also did the double over the cottagers last season too. 

Burnley have been a little bit hit & miss in the last 6 weeks or so but they'll relish this opportunity to get back to back wins in the league for the the first time this season when Scunthorpe come to town. They won away at Barnsley on boxing day & another 3 points here could push them back into the play off spots. Scunny have had a mini break coming into this game having not played for the past 3 1/2 weeks so they'll certainly be a bit fresher than their opponents. Having said that they were in a bit of a slump prior to their unscheduled winter break having lost their last 5 straight & not playing particularly well either. They've certainly been better away from Glanford Park this season with 5 wins & 5 defeats but Burnley should be too strong for them at Turf Moor.

Norwich are in decent form at the moment with only 1 defeat in their last 8. They've won 3 of their last 4 & should be a bit fresher than their opponents having not played on boxing day when their game at Palace was postponed. In contrast Sheff Utd are having a tough time of things at the moment. Currently managerless they've lost 3 of their last 4, the latest of which came on boxing day at home to Hull.

Away day special long shot:

Man Utd (-1) to beat Birmingham (A) @ 11/8

QPR to beat Coventry @ 7/5

Cardiff to beat Watford @ 6/4

Port Vale to beat Gillingham @ 7/4

Shrewsbury to beat Lincoln @ 11/8

Assuming all of these games get the go ahead then this little lot pay a massive 92/1 so only a quid & some change on it. There are some risky picks in there although as part of a long shot they're risks worth taking.

Can you believe that United have only won as many games on the road as West Ham this season! The big difference though is that they're still unbeaten in the league this season & they're likely to extend that run at St Andrews. It's been 4 years since they last beat Birmingham by more than one goal but they've started to find the net a bit more recently so are capable of grabbing 2 or 3 here.

QPR appear to have come through their mini slump with a thumping 4-0 win at home to promotion chasers Swansea on boxing day. Coventry have hit a bit of bad form themselves at the moment & come into this game on the back of 1 draw & 2 defeats.

Depending on which Watford side turn up here they're certainly capable of taking something from this game. Cardiff have been a little shaky themselves recently losing 3 of their last 5 but they got back to winning ways on boxing day with a 2-0 win at home to Coventry & have also won the last 3 meetings between the two as well.

Port Vale are probably the riskiest pick of the lot here but I just can't ignore that price. Gillingham have hit some good form of late having won their last 3 straight. Like their opponents Vale haven't played for a couple of weeks & last time out they went down 1-0 at Morecambe. These 2 drew 0-0 at Vale Park earlier in the season but I have a feeling Vale might just nick this one.

If Shrewsbury are to be promoted this season then it's exactly these kind of games they need to be winning. Currently sitting in 6th place in league two they travel to a Lincoln side who are only outside of the relegation spots on goal difference. Lincoln haven't played for a few weeks but last time out they were thumped 0-5 at home to Bury. In contrast Shrewsbury come into this game in decent form themselves & are unbeaten in 6. They too haven't played for a couple of weeks.

Goood luck if you're having a go peeps.

Jay

EDIT: With the game at Lincoln now called off I have now substituted that selection with Reading to beat Hull @ 8/5. The 5 way now returns a potential 102/1 so again, only a quid & some change on it

silentbob

It's silly season again with more strange results yesterday culminating in precisely zero winning bets.

Still, on to tonight's games & on the face of it there's very little value about with the games. However, looking a little deeper I think I've found a nice little treble for tonight's games.

Bolton (+2) to beat Chelsea (A) @ 5/6

Arsenal to score 2+ goals @ 8/13

Liverpool to win to Nil @ 5/6

These 3 pay a shade under 9/2 so I've had a tenner on.

Chelsea are in bad form at the moment with 3 draws & 3 defeats in their last 6 games. They do have a decent record against Bolton but they won't relish playing them tonight. Bolton are a different proposition under the guidance of Owen Coyle & 3 points here tonight will see them leapfrog Chelsea into 5th place! With a 2 goal head start this bet would've been a winner in 7 of the last 8 league meetings at the bridge so this price is too big to ignore.

In 7 of the 10 league meetings between the two sides Arsenal have scored 2 or more goals (if you also include cup games in this then it's 10 from 14). Arsenal are in form at the moment & are scoring goals but as they found out last season Wigan can spring a surprise. You can get a general price of 1/2 for an Arsenal win at the DW tonight but I prefer this option as it's a better price & history says it's more likely to happen.

Liverpool have been strong at Anfield as you'd expect & a win here tonight against the basement boys will see them jump 4 places up to 8th. Wolves have the worst away record in the division with just 1 draw (at Everton back in August) & 7 defeats away from Molineux. In those 8 games they've scored just 5 goals & conceded 17. They go into this game with injuries to key players too whilst Liverpool have both Torres & Gerrard fit again so will be looking to push on up the league. The general price of 2/7 for a Liverpool win just ain't worth the bother but this price for winning with a clean sheet is well worth taking up.

Good luck if you're having a got tonight.

Jay

achill

£5 treble pays 6/1.

	Npower League 1	Brighton v Charlton	Under/Over 2.5 Goals	29/12/2010 19:45	Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
	Npower Championship	Nottm. Forest v Derby	Under/Over 2.5 Goals	29/12/2010 19:45	Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5
	Barclays Premier League	Chelsea v Bolton	Under/Over 2.5 Goals	29/12/2010 19:45	Under 2.5 Goals @ 6/5