Playing AKs UTG?

SpongeDoug

Hi,

Just went out of Orfordable playing AKs UTG. I made 4xBB (1/5th of my stack) got re raised all in everyone else folded I called expecting to be up against a medium pair and perhaps a race. My oppo had AKs aswell but got his flush which is fair enough (well it is for me....)

He made the right move (as the great TK pointed out) and I just want to know if I made a really bad call?

ANY comments welcome cos I badly need to improve my game as I'm on a long slippery slope! And as much as I like Rich Orford I don't want to join him at the bottom of it ;-)

BigBluster

Let's assume you've given a conservative tight image so the villain respects your UTG raise. If you've been playing loosely or imaginatively, most of the comments below won't count.

You raised 4BB UTG, so your opponent obviously thought you were very strong. For him to shove (assuming he's of a reasonable standard as he's clearly not short-stacked) you've got to put him on AK, JJ, QQ, KK AA. What else would he shove with if he respects your UTG raise?
So your chances of winning against each hand are:

v AK let's call it 50% (he may or may not be suited, but it changes the odds little)
v JJ or QQ 45%
v KK 33%
v AA 11%

There are 3 times as many ways of making AK as KK or AA (with you having AK already), so if played 100 times you would see roughly:
43 splits
29 where you are 45%
14 where you are 33% and
14 where you are 11%

Basically, excluding what you've already invested in the pot, this call has quite a negative expectation. For every £1 bet made on this call, you expect to lose 35 pence.
Based on the assumptions I've made about image etc, this was a bad call. Though I bet 90% of the players on this site will not put down AKs pre-flop.

SpongeDoug

Wow, thanks B B. Great reply. I have read the books but looks like I need to re-read but this time digest the maths.

And I do like to think on the whole I presented a tight(ish) image!

Thanks again.