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Weekend footy betting (8th/9th)
This is my favourite weekend of the season. FA Cup 3rd round day 
Despite what some may believe, the FA Cup is still magical to me. I will never forget my trip to Cardiff in 2006 & despite the fact the we ultimately lost out it is still the greatest sporting day of my life. Even better than winning the play off final the year before.
Despite what some may believe, the FA Cup is still magical to me. I will never forget my trip to Cardiff in 2006 & despite the fact the we ultimately lost out it is still the greatest sporting day of my life. Even better than winning the play off final the year before.However, with cup games come bigger risks to us punters. Which teams will field a weakened side & which teams will inexplicably be the victims of a cup shock. Initially I've gone for 2 bets for tomorrow although I'll probably add a both to score or under/over bet in the morning.
Main Acca:
Norwich to beat Leyton Orient (H) @ 8/15
Sunderland to beat Notts Co (H) @ 2/5
Watford to beat Hartlepool (H) @ 1/2
Bradford to beat Barnet (H) @ 4/7
These 4 are paying a very decent 4/1 so I've had my usual tenner on it.
I'm surprised that Norwich are not a shorter price than this tbh. They're coming into this game on the back of just one defeat in their last 11 & they're strong at Carrow Road. Orient are not great travellers with only 2 wins on the road this season. It took a replay & extra time for them to get past non league Droylsden in the last round & I just can't see them getting anything from this game. Norwich spanked them 4-0 in their league meeting at Carrow Road last season & it could well be a similar scoreline here.
Sunderland are another side who have been superb at home this season. Blackpool are the only visitors to come away with maximum points at the Stadium of Light this season (although we did also win 2-1 there in the league cup this season too) & the black cats are coming into this game on the back of 2 wins. Again, Notts Co are not a side who travel too well (2 wins from 10 so far) but they do come into this game on the back of a decent run themselves & are unbeaten in 6 in all competitions. However, Steve Bruce is one of those managers who take the cup competitions seriously so he'll be putting out a pretty strong team for this.
Watford are far exceeding expectations this season & are currently in 6th place which ain't too bad for a team who were one of the strong favourites for relegation this year! They're in good form at the moment & have won their last 5 straight including big wins against the division's top two teams QPR & Cardiff. Hartlepool are in pretty decent form themselves of late too. Despite losing 3-0 at Notts Co last time out, they'd won their previous 5 in all competitions. However, they are very much a Jekyll & Hyde team on the road & Watford should see them off here.
Despite a bad start to the season Bradford have found their feet in league 2 & are now pushing for a play off spot. They've won their last 2 & have already beaten Barnet 2-0 at Underhill back in October. Barnet are in turmoil. Currently managerless & bottom of league 2, they come into this game on the back of some shocking form. They've lost 5 of their last 6 & have picked up only 2 points from a possible 30 on the road this season & I really can't see them improving on that here.
FA Cup Long Shot:
Doncaster to beat Wolves (H) @ 17/10
Blackpool to beat Southampton (A) @ 13/5 (W T F!!!)
QPR (+1) to beat Blackburn (A) @ 4/5
Hull/Wigan - DRAW @ 23/10
Sheff Utd/Villa - DRAW @ 12/5
These 5 are offering a massive 195/1 so only a quid at stake here.
The price on offer for Donny here is massive. Wolves' number one priority is staying in the top flight so I expect Mick McCarthy to make plenty of changes. They've not been too great on the road either with only one win & 6 goals scored in 10 games this season. Donny are doing well this season & have a decent chance of making the play offs. They're strong at home & have lost only once there all season.
I can't believe that I'm backing a top flight team to beat a league 1 team without any sort of handicap as part of a long shot. This price is absolutely incredible & I reckon it's even worth backing as a single bet. Yes, Southampton are pretty decent at St Marys & yes, they've really picked up their form in recent weeks to put themselves right back in the hunt for top spot come May, but let's not forget that they have lost 3 at home this season including a 2-0 defeat to Brentford just a couple of weeks back. You can get even money on them winning here & tbh I think that's an awful price. In contrast Blackpool have one of the best away records in the top flight this season. In fact, the only teams to have won more on the road than Blackpool are Arsenal & Man City. That's right, Blackpool have won more games on the road than Chelsea, Spurs & Man Utd! That's 3 of the top 5 teams in the country right now!! They don't have the biggest of squads & Ian Holloway only knows one way to play. I'm not saying they'll walk this game but they should almost certainly be in the hat for the next round come 5 o clock.
Blackburn are consistently inconsistent this season. One minute they're beating teams you probably wouldn't expect them to & the next they're getting spanked like you wouldn't believe. QPR have been a bit inconsistent themselves of late but they're not top of the championship for no reason. At times they've played some cracking stuff this season & they've certainly got goals in them. With a goal head start here they're worth the risk to cause a minor upset.
Both Hull & Wigan have struggled for goals this season & I don't expect this to be a particularly enthralling game either. I expect they'll cancel each other out & Wigan will probably go through via a replay at the DW.
For me Villa have been one of the surprise teams in the prem this season for all the wrong reasons. Currently sitting 3rd from bottom with only 1 win & 6 defeats in their last 8 games, these are not happy times at Villa Park. They've been awful on the road too with just 1 win & 2 draws from 10 this season (a worse record than us!) so they won't be relishing a tricky trip to Bramall Lane. Sheffield Utd have underachieved themselves this season too but they are capable of picking up results when you least expect it. Last time out they snatched a draw at home to Doncaster after coming from 2-0 down with just 4 minutes to go! It's gonna be close & the price on the draw is well worth backing as part of this bet.
Good luck if you're having a go tomorrow & I'll post up any other bets I might do in the morning.
Jay
Comments
BRIGHTON MIGHT BE WORTH A LOOK AT 11/8 POYET HAS SAID THERE PLAYING STRONGEST SIDE AND WEVE GOT ABOUT 14 FIT PLAYERS AND THE SITUATION WITH BROWN AND HUGHES HAS KILLED ANY MORALE WE HAD, WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF NUGENT DOESNT PLAY AS RUMOURS ARE THE HES OFF TO QPR,CARDIFF OR BLACKPOOL IN THIS WINDOW