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Value or not?
I'm curious how you view this river, in light of the previous betting- again, fairly early in a session, not seen the player too much but they seem fairly aggressive, haven't seen any showdown so no idea on range.
Preflop I wanted to see a flop in position before getting overcommitted, didn't think it was worth going crazy to a raise and a reraise where further action would almost guarantee putting me in a coinflip. Dream flop- I figured him to have a big ace, of course he could have KK/QQ which just killed my action, but in reality it's about the best board I could hope for. Quite a dry board too, so chose the flat call option- is raising here an idea?
On turn the check tells me again he most likely has a big ace, or quite possibly again JJ-KK and is trying to pot control. Obviously need to get some money in, flat call again says he's not thrilled with his hand (or he's slowplaying a monster- short of AA, nothing really to worry about).
River bet confuses me though... what do you make of this now? Obviously folding is never happening, but do you flat or raise? What value do you see in reraising- will you get called by inferior hands enough to make it worthwhile? Or is it worth just taking the pot down and not getting greedy (assuming you're even ahead)? Possibilities in my head were a weird backdoor flush or straight (JQspades? unlikely), KK- fits the bill, or perhaps AK. AA or 88 maybe possibilities too. Unsure whether the small bet sizing is strength or weakness, and whether he's trying to get value or leaving himself enough back to fold. I'm inclined to believe it's strength, but it still begs the question whether enough hands I beat will call a raise.
Preflop I wanted to see a flop in position before getting overcommitted, didn't think it was worth going crazy to a raise and a reraise where further action would almost guarantee putting me in a coinflip. Dream flop- I figured him to have a big ace, of course he could have KK/QQ which just killed my action, but in reality it's about the best board I could hope for. Quite a dry board too, so chose the flat call option- is raising here an idea?
On turn the check tells me again he most likely has a big ace, or quite possibly again JJ-KK and is trying to pot control. Obviously need to get some money in, flat call again says he's not thrilled with his hand (or he's slowplaying a monster- short of AA, nothing really to worry about).
River bet confuses me though... what do you make of this now? Obviously folding is never happening, but do you flat or raise? What value do you see in reraising- will you get called by inferior hands enough to make it worthwhile? Or is it worth just taking the pot down and not getting greedy (assuming you're even ahead)? Possibilities in my head were a weird backdoor flush or straight (JQspades? unlikely), KK- fits the bill, or perhaps AK. AA or 88 maybe possibilities too. Unsure whether the small bet sizing is strength or weakness, and whether he's trying to get value or leaving himself enough back to fold. I'm inclined to believe it's strength, but it still begs the question whether enough hands I beat will call a raise.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph317 | Small blind | £0.05 | £0.05 | £3.31 | |
| rains06 | Big blind | £0.10 | £0.15 | £6.80 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Phaedrus72 | Raise | £0.30 | £0.45 | £28.35 | |
| xxxx | Raise | £0.90 | £1.35 | £18.05 | |
| DeucesLive | Call | £0.90 | £2.25 | £19.57 | |
| 5_aces | Fold | ||||
| Ralph317 | Fold | ||||
| rains06 | Fold | ||||
| Phaedrus72 | Call | £0.60 | £2.85 | £27.75 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| Phaedrus72 | Check | ||||
| xxxx | Bet | £1.43 | £4.28 | £16.62 | |
| DeucesLive | Call | £1.43 | £5.71 | £18.14 | |
| Phaedrus72 | Fold | ||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| xxxx | Check | ||||
| DeucesLive | Bet | £3.30 | £9.01 | £14.84 | |
| xxxx | Call | £3.30 | £12.31 | £13.32 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| xxxx | Bet | £6.16 | £18.47 | £7.16 | |
| DeucesLive | ???? | ||||
Comments
think its an all in tbf.
meh if he had QJss then w/e but for the times we are behind we also have to get max value for the times we are ahead, so shove.
EDIT I don't think he is ever lead bet/folding £6 with £7 behind fwiw.
doube he has aces ony re-raising to 90, so would also discount kings. QJ i cant see them still in pot unless like scotty they are spades. really hard to put them on anything other then AK, but depends whether they are competant or not. Based on your reads their aggressive but not any relevant history has to be a all in
I think if you shove river every time you have a set you'll be quite a sad poker player when you look at bankroll. There's 2 higher sets, a straight and flush out there, so the hand is most definitely vulnerable.
Question is really whether or not I'm ahead of his range more often than not. I'm glad nick said it looked like kings, because that was my biggest suspicion- KK and AK looked by far the most likely, so I'm 50/50 there. Other options are 88/AA/JQs, which I'm 1/2 against. Simply can't see any other hands playing like that- QQ/JJ would have shut down already, 33 is unlikely to be played that passively.
In the end I decided flatting was the better part of valour, and was obviously a little sick that he turned over AK- a river shove would definitely have been called.
What range of hands has villain got, in your eyes? Realistic ones, that is. I think we can rule out playing something like AQ by this point.