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Pre-flop Hand Percentages.
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Have you ever wondered how much of a favourite your A-K versus A-J is? Want to know who is more likely to win those so-called ‘flips’ when you’ve got 2-2 against your opponent’s A-Q? Hopefully this post will help.
HAND MATCH UP TYPES
Pair vs Pair – 80/20
Blandy says: Let’s hope you get it in with the best of it! There is some small variance on this (so if the pairs are so close that they take away some of the straight cards for the smaller pair, or if one of the hands has the only heart to make a flush, for example). It’s basically not worth worrying about too much though – remember 80% v 20% and you won’t go too wrong.
AA v KK – 80% v 20%
KK v 44 – 80% v 20%
Overpair vs Suited Connectors – around 80/20
AA v 98s - ~80% v 20%
AA v 54s - ~80% v 20%
AA v KQs - ~83% v 17%
Blandy says: Small suited connectors work better vs AA than KQs, again because AA takes away two of the outs for KQ to make a straight. Bear that in mind as it does move the percentages more towards the 80/20 end of the spectrum. The best set of suited connectors to crack aces with? 98s – you’re only a 22.5% underdog there! Getting it in with KQ of the same suit would be 17.5%. Ugh.
Overpair vs Unsuited Connectors – around 83/17
AA v 98o - ~81% v 19%
AA v 54o – ~82% v 18%
AA v KQo - ~86% v 14%
Blandy says: Same as the above scenario really. You’d want to have connectors which aren’t crippled by the overpair having some of your straight outs – so 78o would feel much happier vs KK than 99.
Overpair vs Two Undercards (non-connected) – 85/15
AA v 95 - ~85% v 15%
QQ v J6 - ~85% v 15%
Blandy says: We need to avoid getting it in with match-ups with the likes of J6 and 95. If you do make a move and get caught though it’s bleak news – you’re around 15%. This is why in many ways it’s better to shove a short stack with the likes of 98o instead of K2.
Pair vs Unsuited Dominated Cards – 90/10
AA v AT - ~90% v 10%
KK v KJ - ~90% v 10%
Blandy says: This is the worst kind of match-up preflop but as we’ve seen on SPT final tables, AK is still able to outdraw AA. The odds shift in favour of the big pair when the kicker is smaller – AA v A6 for example is 92/8.
Pair vs Unsuited Dominated Cards – roughly 86/14
TT v T7s – ~85% v 15%
KK v KQs ~86% v 14%
Blandy says: The fact your dominated cards are suited shift the odds around 3-4 in your favour. It also helps if you can make a straight with your hand or if the big pair isn’t as big. T7 v TT matches up slightly better than KQ v KK, for example.
Pair vs Two Suited Overcards – 52/48
JJ v KQs – 52% v 48%
TT v KJs – 52% v 48%
Blandy says: The pairs are a very small favourite in the often described ‘classic poker race’. The head start comes from the two big suited cards have lost some of their straight outs by virtue of them being in the Villain’s hand.
Pair vs Two Unsuited Overcards – 56/44
JJ v KQo – 56% v 44%
TT v KJo – 56% v 44%
Blandy says: The extra percentage for the pair comes from the two overs being less likely to make a flush. Easy!
Small Pair vs Two Suited High Overcards – 52/48, not always for the pair!
55 v T9s – 48% v 52%
55 v AKs – 52% v 48%
Blandy says: One thing to note is that having AKs versus 55 is not as good as having T9s. Why? Because AK can only make a straight one way (Q-J-T), while T9s can do it both up (K-Q-J) and down (8-7-6). T9s is actually a favourite against pocket fives while AK is an underdog. Strange huh?
Small Pair vs Two Unsuited High Overcards – 50/50 – a true flip!
44 v AKo – 52% v 48%
55 v KQo – 52% v 48%
Blandy says: There is a way that it can literally be a 50/50 coin flip. Small pairs are generally a favourite against two overs but if you hold two overcards that can make a straight no higher than jack-high versus a smaller pair you’re literally flipping! If you go over QJ it’s back to a mere 48% for you. Tough life.
Pair vs. One Overcard - 70/30
JJ v A6o - ~71% v 29%
JJ v A6s - 68% v 32%
Blandy says: This is one of those spots that tends to come up quite often so it's worth remembering. If you're suited add a couple of percent to your hand for the flush possibilities. Again, 70/30 is the kind of number you actually need to remember here...
Dominated Hands
Unsuited vs Unsuited Dominated Hand – 70/30
AJo v A8 – 70% v 30%
KQo v KTo – 70% v 30%
Suited vs Suited Dominated Hands – 70/30
AsKs vs Ac8c– ~70% v 30%
KsQs vs KhTh - ~70% v 30%
Unsuited vs Suited Dominated Hand - ~70% v 30%
AKo vs A8s ~70% to 30%
KQo v KJs - ~70% to 30%
Blandy says: The thing to remember in all of these situations is that the fact you’re suited doesn’t help get you out of being dominated all that much. There’s an occasional bit of help with flush outs (so for example in the AK v A8s hand) but it really doesn’t change matters all that much.
Others:
One overcard vs two lower connectors (K5 v JT) – 56% v 44%
One overcard vs one lower card (Q6 v 72) - 64% to 35%
Two overs vs two unders (AK v 85) – 70% v 30%
Blandy: The most useful of these is the Two Overs v Two Unders scenario. If you shove with the suited connectors and get looked up by two big overcards you’re around a 30% shot to win the pot.
So, that’s it on pre-flop odds and common match ups. If you can think of any match-ups that I’ve not covered in the post please let me know and I’ll add them on. Otherwise, try and get a rough idea of these odds (or just bookmark the page!) and you should find your feel for pre-flop decision making improves no end.
Good luck at the tables!
Sky Dave
80% vs 20%
this started off a horrid run of events last night lol.
I'll add it to the article.
Sky Dave/Dave Bland
I will have fun naming my children though!