DO i lose value not betting the river?

The_Don90

OK in the below hand I have AK against a loose cally player. I flop an A on a draw heavy flop and raise the donk bet which he calls.


The flush draw completes on the turn pairing the board, and i decided to go for pot control here checking back. The river adds a second pair to the board, should i be value betting here?

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceianblackrfSmall blind £0.05£0.05£2.71 Big blind £0.10£0.15£4.45 Your hole cardsAK   andrew1961Fold    The_Don90Raise £0.30£0.45£6.85Blondie8Fold    ianblackrfFold     Call £0.20£0.65£4.25Flop  3A5    Bet £0.33£0.98£3.92The_Don90Raise £1.31£2.29£5.54 Call £0.98£3.27£2.94Turn  3    Check    The_Don90Check    River  5    Check    The_Don90Check     Show76   The_Don90ShowAK   The_Don90WinTwo Pairs, Aces and 5s£3.02 £8.56

DOHHHHHHH

Definitely bet the turn and/or the river for me.

I would bet both, if he just flats the turn and checks the river to me.

GREGHOGG

never mind the river, BET THE TURN!

pod1

you really need to see why he flatted your raise on the flop, firing again on turn will give you a good idea were you are.

DeucesLive

hmm, I'll throw a spanner in by saying I don't mind the check on the turn- as you say, you're controlling the pot. He could very well be calling on the club draw, or with a random 3, so checking behind in position is a good move imo. Then, if he has air, you're inducing a possible river bluff (great) and his value bet if he does have the goods on the end can be flatted for minimal damage. If you bet the turn and he has got the flush (which he does a lot here, I think) then you're gonna either be flatted, and facing a big river bet, or reraised (possibly even reraise bluff if he's good) and you have to lay down, or flat and pray he shuts down on the river (bad bad move).

So I think your turn check is spot on, but when he checks the river, you could probably put in a value bet and hope to get called by a random ace. Personally, I think that's such a messy board that a check isn't the worst move- there's not many hands at all that call you which you're beating. If he has a 5 he 100% bets, a 3 he almost definitely bets, but if he's on the flush he'll probably check call.

In short, I'd probably bet the river but don't expect to be called very often.