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Weekend footy betting (29th/30th)

silentbobsilentbob
edited January 2011 in Betting Chat
I haven't looked at tomorrows games yet but there's a few games tonight & I've decided to start early with a small priced double from tonight's games.

Millwall to beat Barnsley (H) @ 8/11
Colchester/Peterborough - Both to score @ 8/15

The double pays 13/8 so I've had a tenner on to hopefully start the weekend with a small profit.

Millwall come into this game in better form than their opponents with 3 wins & 1 draw in their last 6. They're decent at home too with 7 wins & 3 draws from 13. They've won the last 4 at The New Den scoring 10 & conceding only 1 in the process. In contrast Barnsley only have 1 win in their last 6 & they're not great travellers either. Spookily they've almost got the exact opposite record on the road to Millwall at home even down to goals scored & conceded! In 13 attempts they've won only 3 & lost 7. They've lost talisman Adam Hammill now as well so it should be misery in South London tonight.

Both Colchester & Peterborough concede as many as they score & the prices available on this market are proof of this. You can get 11/8 if you think one of them will keep a clean sheet tonight but I'd be very surprised if they do. At home Colchester have scored 21 & conceded 20 in 13 games whilst Peterborough have scored 14 & conceded 21 in 11 on the road so far.

Good luck if you're gonna have a go in any of tonight's games & I'll post up my picks for tomorrow a little later.

Jay
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Comments

  • silentbobsilentbob
    edited January 2011
    So far so good & I'm free rolling for tomorrow's bets what with Millwall winning 2-0 & Colchester & Peterborough both scoring :)

    It's FA Cup weekend again & as usual it's a bit of a minefield out there trying to figure out who'll pick their strongest line ups & who'll slip up where they probably shouldn't. Having said that, with a little bit of searching there's some value to be had & hopefully I've got a nice winning treble here.

    Main Bet:

    Everton/Chelsea - Both to score @ 5/6
    Watford/Brighton - Over 2.5 goals @ 8/11
    Southampton/Man Utd - Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6

    These 3 pay a nice 4/1 so I've had a tenner on that for starters.

    There's not been a clean sheet in the last 4 meetings between Everton & Chelsea & that should continue at Goodison. Chelsea appear to be on the road to recovery after their recent poor form having won their last 3 in all competitions. They're currently even money for the win on Merseyside but Everton are no pushovers & they'll provide sterner opposition for them. I expect Chelsea to make a few changes tomorrow & as much as David Moyes would probably like to do the same, Everton just don't really have the squad to do so. A close game that I think Chelsea will just edge but I think it's a better bet to back both to score.
    If there's one thing Watford & Brighton are good at this season it's scoring goals. Watford are always likely to concede as well though. In Watford's last 8 games in all competitions there's been at least 3 goals & in the last round there were 5 goals when Hartlepool came to town. With the exception of a JPT defeat, all of Brighton's defeats this season have come on the road.
    Southampton are another side who have goals in them but even with numerous changes expected by Sir Red Nose, Man Utd should still be too strong for them at St Marys in the evening kick off. With a packed house & the TV cameras rolling, Southampton are gonna be well up for this & whilst I don't think they'll have enough to see off United, they are capable of grabbing a goal which mean United will need at least 2 to progress.

    Super Massive Long Shot:

    Norwich to beat Palace (A) @ 11/8
    Hull/QPR - DRAW @ 12/5
    Bolton/Wigan - DRAW @ 11/4
    Hereford to beat Sheff Weds (A) @ 5/1
    Swansea (-1) to beat Leyton Orient (A) @ 6/5

    These 5 potentially return a staggering 399/1 so only a quid and some small change on here for a bit of fun.

    As I've said before I love doing these massive long shots for a bit of fun & very small stakes. If I get lucky & it rolls in then I'll pick up over £520 for an outlay of just £1.31!! Obviously there's a reason why it's 400/1 & that's because they don't come in very often but for a quid I'll buy a ticket for this lottery.

    Norwich are bang in form at the moment & are unbeaten in their last 6, winning 4 of them. They've actually lost more games at Carrow Road than they have on the road but I don't think they'll have it all their own way at Selhurst. The best chance that Palace have of survival this season is to pick up points at home. Their only win away from Selhurst this season came at Carrow Road back in October so they're capable of giving the canaries a game. However, the momentum is firmly with Norwich at the moment & this is a huge price.
    QPR are still top of the championship but they've been stumbling a bit since the turn of the year. In fact, last weekend's 2-1 win at home to Coventry was their first of 2011. Hull have found some fight since the beginning of November & have become tough nuts to crack, particularly at home. Earlier in the season I would've backed Rangers for the points here but I fancy they could well cancel each other out at the KC.
    Four of the last five meetings between Bolton & Wigan have ended all square. Neither side will particularly want a replay but given the current form of both teams I think it could well be another stalemate at the meccano, sorry, Reebok tomorrow.
    What's this? I'm backing Hereford to beat Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough!!! Is this the same Hereford side who are 4th bottom in league 2? Well here's why I'm backing them here. As ever I think it's fair to expect a shock result or two in the earlier rounds of the cup & this one has got the best chance of happening imo. Hereford have picked up more points on the road than they have at home this season & they come into this game on the back of 5 straight wins in all competitions. They beat league 2 promotion chasers Wycombe away from home in the last round & they'll fancy their chances here as the underdogs with nothing to lose. In contrast Wednesday are struggling at the moment & in some respects this is possibly the worst game for them right now as defeat here will really heap the pressure on boss Alan Irvine. Their only victory in their last 6 in all competitions came in the last round at Bristol City. If you're gonna do a long shot this weekend then this game is well worthy of inclusion.
    Leyton Orient caused one of the shocks of the last round when they beat high flying Norwich at Carrow Road 1-0. Unfortunately for them I can't see a similar outcome this time. Not only do Swansea not lose many at home but they don't concede many either. In fact, in their 14 league games at the Liberty Stadium this season they've only conceded 5 goals. In contrast The O's have conceded 24 on their travels in league 1 this season & in the last round Swansea put 4 past Colchester so at this price backing them to win by 2 or more here makes sense.

    Good luck if you're having a go tomorrow

    Jay
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  • silentbobsilentbob
    edited January 2011
    A decent start so far with Everton & Chelsea drawing. Swansea have killed of my long shot but then I suppose many people would have backed Leyton Orient! Still, some goals at Vicarage Road & St Marys & I'll be a happy bunny tonight.
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  • silentbobsilentbob
    edited January 2011
    Typical. This is the first time in 8 games that Watford have failed to score :(

    Never mind, there's always tomorrow & I'm sure I'll be able to find some value in the few games playing.
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  • emilyeggemilyegg
    edited January 2011
    Nobody is paying attention Jay, your tips (from The Sun) are total mince.

    You won a few small doubles last week, but to a £1 level stake, anyone following you would be doing their stones.
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  • Ads2kukAds2kuk
    edited January 2011
    Unlucky on the Watford one mate...

    I had them both to score aswell...

    My only luck lies on West Ham and Spurs to win 2moro....

    I got Leyton Orient, West Ham and Spurs all to win at 25/1..


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  • thevins200thevins200
    edited January 2011
    i had a six fold on goals galore 3 games postponed and 2up and aldershot scored in the last minute way hay ...bout time a last minute goal went in my favour
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  • silentbobsilentbob
    edited January 2011
    It's a tough call today to try & find any major value so I've gone for a longer shot than I normally would.

    Wolves to beat Stoke (H) @ 11/8
    West Ham to beat Forest (H) @ 11/10
    Spurs to beat Fulham (A) @ 13/10
    Man City (-1) to beat Notts Co (A) @ evens
    Arsenal (-1) to beat Huddersfield (H) @ 1/3

    These 5 pay 30/1 so I've had a fiver on to make things more interesting this afternoon.

    I can pretty much guarantee that Stoke will make a few changes for this game much like they did in the last round against Cardiff. On that occasion it took them a replay & extra time to get through. Whilst I think Mick McCarthy might also make one or two changes himself I think they could see off Stoke today. They've already beaten them at Molineux on the opening day of the season & victory breeds confidence which is what they'll need in their fight against relegation. I nearly backed the draw here but tbh neither side will want a replay so I think Wolves will just shade it in a close game.
    I expect Forest to make a few changes today as well so that they don't lose important players for their promotion push. They'll push us close here but we've got Vicky & Picky back from suspension along with new signing Demba Ba expected on the bench too. The price on us is huge considering we're at home & we will want to get ourselves back on track after our diabolical collapse in midweek at Birmingham.
    Fulham & Spurs is another tough one to call. You've got to expect bagpuss to make a few changes but the one thing Spurs do have more of these days is a bit more strength in depth. Mark Hughes may well make a few changes himself as his biggest priority will be top flight survival. I could make an argument to back the draw here too but given that Spurs have won the last 3 meetings between them this big price on them to win has too much appeal for me.
    Again, Mancini will make changes for the trip to Nottingham but let's face it, City's reserves ain't all that bad are they? They'll want to make sure that they get them job done first time round this time & they really should be too strong for County.
    I nearly left the game at the Emirates off my selections for today but I figured in for a penny, in for a pound. Huddersfield are a decent side but they're missing a few players including top scorer Jordan Rhodes & their biggest priority this season is getting promoted to the championship. They're vulnerable on the road & they do like to concede goals on their travels having conceded 12 in their last 4 on the road. Arsenal will make changes for this game but they should see off the terriers comfortably, particularly if they get an early goal.

    Good luck if you're having a go today

    Jay
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited January 2011
    You're bets are obv wel re-searched SB, so you always have a shot......

    But I only really comment on them when I really like the look of em.....and that one looks really good to me ^^^^^^^ @ 30/1.

    Everytime I say that though, and have a few 'Bob' on them myself, they fail drastically - Hopefully I wont jinx you again today.

    Anyway my £4.79 will be on, good luck.
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  • silentbobsilentbob
    edited January 2011
    That sending off cost me. I can't figure out why Arsenal just tried hanging on in the 2nd half rather than getting forward to try & get the 2nd goal & put the game to bed?

    Never mind, you can't win 'em all & there's a full league programme playing in midweek.
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  • pieman1213pieman1213
    edited January 2011

    have been running well so had bigger wagers on my accas this week.

    0000129Treble (To win) 1£50.00 Swansea vs Leyton OrientMatch betting Swansea 4/9£0.00
         Sheffield Wednesday vs HerefordMatch bettingSheffield Wednesday 1/2
         Celtic vs AberdeenMatch bettingCeltic 2/5

    swansea were the supposed 'dead cert' and how they did not beat the O's i will never know. was a shame as celtic and wedensday won so convincingly at similar odds

    on the plus side, the acca today went well for me :-)

    DateReceiptBet TypeNumber Of LinesTotal Stake PaidSelection DetailsPriceReturns
    30/01/20110000135Accumulator (4) (To win) 1£30.00 Inter vs PalermoMatch betting Inter 4/6£132.00
         Napoli vs SampdoriaMatch bettingNapoli 4/7
         Rangers vs MotherwellMatch bettingRangers 2/5
         Arsenal vs HuddersfieldHome Team Goals - Over/Under 1.5Over 1/5
    also had some winning bets on the cricket so wouldnt mind a few more days like this!

    on a final note, gone for s double on tonights evening games.
                                        juventus vs udinese- both to score at 8/13
                                       espanyol vs villareal- both to score at 4/6

    good luck all
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