I blame Beaneh for this fold

TommyD

I know a lot of the focus will be on the 3bet with Nines but I'd particularly like to look at the fold to the jam.  He claimed to have exactly what I thought he had (AK).  The mouse hovered over call until the spirit of Beaneh whispered in my ear 'It's a cold 4bet, follllldddddddd.'

Original raiser - Very well known very good Reg, opening range is wide.
Original flatter - Very well known very good Reg, flatting range is pretty wide.
Hero - Donk
Shover - First time I've seen him at this level, haven't seen much play from him in this session.

Correct fold?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Stuporman	Small blind		£1.00	£1.00	£77.70
x	Big blind		£2.00	£3.00	£217.95
	Your hole cards	9 9
RUNITSRANN	Fold
y	Raise		£8.00	£11.00	£406.92
z	Call		£8.00	£19.00	£324.65
Hero	Raise		£30.00	£49.00	£195.70
Stuporman	Fold
x	All-in		£217.95	£266.95	£0.00
y	Fold
z	Fold
Hero	Fold
x	Muck
x	Win		£77.00		£77.00
x	Return		£189.95	£0.00	£266.95

christiann

I fold everytime, could easily have you crushed.
Would you call if his cards were face up and he had AK? - not sure i wanna risk my whole stack on a flip.

The_Don90

I love the way you play this tommy. And good fold imo.

Even if it is AT+ ur against are you really that happy to flip for £200 ? I know im low stake and £200 sounds like a hell of alot of money to me, so ill re-phrase that are you willing to flip for 100BB?

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

I love the way you play this tommy. And good fold imo. Even if it is AT+ ur against are you really that happy to flip for £200 ? I know im low stake and £200 sounds like a hell of alot of money to me, so ill re-phrase that are you willing to flip for 100BB?
Posted by The_Don90

If the opponent exposes his hand and it's 2 overcards, he has to call, there's no doubt about it.

195 more to win a pot of 250 on a 53/47 shot = snap call.

Unfortunately his hand aint exposed, and he obv could have TT-AA, so for that reason I would fold.

I would be over the moon to get it in racing here though, with all the dead money in the pot.

beaneh

What did I do?!!?

The_Don90

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

In Response to  Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold : If the opponent exposes his hand and it's 2 overcards, he has to call, there's no doubt about it. 195 more to win a pot of 250 on a 53/47 shot = snap call. Unfortunately his hand aint exposed, and he obv could have TT-AA, so for that reason I would fold. I would be over the moon to get it in racing here though, with all the dead money in the pot.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

really?

maybe its just my mentality from playing too many mtts of late, but when im deep (100BB is obv deep to me) wouldnt flip to risk my tournament. So why is it different to want to flip in cash ?

Now again maybe its just im scared to lose £200 on one hand. That would kill me and i would become a little girl and cry lol.

But JJ are you really happy @ NL30 to sit down first hand and find yourself with QQ and you know your opponent has just jammed with AK?

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold : really? maybe its just my mentality from playing too many mtts of late, but when im deep (100BB is obv deep to me) wouldnt flip to risk my tournament. So why is it different to want to flip in cash ? Now again maybe its just im scared to lose £200 on one hand. That would kill me and i would become a little girl and cry lol. But JJ are you really happy @ NL30 to sit down first hand and find yourself with QQ and you know your opponent has just jammed with AK?
Posted by The_Don90

It's a cash game, so we play the odds, and make +ev decisions.

Maybe one of the maths guys can explain why taking a 50/50 shot, when you're getting better than 50/50 on your money is a winning play over time.

"Printing money" is the term for it I believe.

It should be obvious why it's a good thing.

If the odds on the roulette wheel landing on black paid 2/1, for an even money shot, I would sit at the roulette wheel and make money, risk free until I was a millionnaire.

* at 30nl, if a guy open shoves utg and then exposes AK, and I'm on the button with queens - I will snap fold it.

But thats different.

The_Don90

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold : It's a cash game, so we play the odds, and make +ev decisions. Maybe one of the maths guys can explain why taking a 50/50 shot, when you're getting better than 50/50 on your money is a winning play over time. "Printing money" is the term for it I believe. It should be obvious why it's a good thing. If the odds on the roulette wheel landing on black paid 2/1, for an even money shot, I would sit at the roulette wheel and make money, risk free until I was a millionnaire. * at 30nl, if a guy open shoves utg and then exposes AK, and I'm on the button with queens - I will snap fold it. But thats different.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

dont you counter act yourself with this statement.

Also isnt a flip 51/49 ?

TommyD

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

What did I do?!!?
Posted by beaneh

LOL, just goes back to a post in the clinic ages ago.  We had a discussion as to how wide a cold 4bet's range could be.  You had it a lot more narrow than I did and as you can see by my fold I've apparently become convinced by you.  Not sure if this is a good or a bad thing....

I posted this as the 'original flatter' claimed it was a snap call.  I'm trying to work out if I've lost my gamble or I'm becoming smarter..

DeucesLive

It's pretty obvious, if your opponent has overcards and you have a pair, and there's already good money in the pot (8.5bbs from other players, and 15 you've put in yourself) that if you then have a flip, it's a good spot to be in every time. Especially as a pair is actually a slight favourite anyway.

Cash is different from tournaments in that cash is solely about the hand in question every time. Blinds don't go up, and if you bust you can reload. Tournaments are different because you have survival to concern yourself with- if you go bust that's it (apart from rebuys... lol). In that scenario, I don't want to get involved in flips in early stages if possible, and I prefer to avoid them throughout- but when you do get forced into one, you try and get in there first at least.

Flips are a big part of cash games, and they're gonna happen all the time- as dohhh said, it's a good spot to be in when there's dead money involved.

I still fold this though, TT/JJ I'd be wary of and probably fold too. QQ I think I'm getting it in, there's a chance that shove could be JJ/TT, and obviously AK- odds start to stack in your favour at that point I think.

N1CK

insta fold with no reads on villain, you need a bit of history to even think about it, cold 4 betting is the new craze tho

YOUNG_GUN

Sorry to be a bit dumb, but what is cold betting?

N1CK

if you 3 bet in this spot you should know what you will be doing to further action, i would make it smaller like £22ish, personally i would just call with that hand if the blinds like to squeeze i would lean towards the 3bet

BrownnDog

Given your reads on the OR and OF the BTN 3B with 99 is fine. Readless snap fold to the cold 4. And actually most regs at this level dont have super wide cold 4'ing ranges, as some would lead you to believe. Although I would actually make this call vs a certain few bad regs because of something they do which is pretty LOL.

LOL_RAISE

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

I I posted this as the 'original flatter' claimed it was a snap call.  I'm trying to work out if I've lost my gamble or I'm becoming smarter..
Posted by TommyD

i would question your reads on the original flatter

YOUNG_GUN

I blame it on the boogie!

BlackFish3

I don't get how you can say to yourself: 'I think he has AK'??

beaneh

I iz famous biatches.

send me a hundo to thank me for saving your maneys.

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

I iz famous biatches. send me a hundo to thank me for saving your maneys.
Posted by beaneh

Chances are you lost him monies if the dude had what he said he had. Silly bean

zing

who is BB

TommyD

Thanks for the responses guys.

In answer to the discussion between Christiann, Don, JJ and Dueces, if the cards were exposed as AK I snap call.  With the money in the middle it's so +ev.  Concentrating on a comment Deuces made, I disagree that flipping preflop is a large part of cash poker.  Flipping on a flop with made hand v combo draw I agree with in cash, getting 100+BB in MTT style with 77 v AJ preflop is not, IMO, a big part of cash poker.  Yes some flips pre you can't avoid but I'm much more of a through the streets kind of player.  Maybe a leak, maybe not.

Young Gun - To do something 'cold' (either cold Xbetting or cold calling) is to do it as your first action in a round of betting.  As the shover had not acted yet in the round his was a 'cold 4bet.'  If he was OR it would just be a 4Bet.

LolRaise - I forgot to make clear that was my reads on the OF before the hand.  I changed the notes a little after.  I haven't played too much with him as I'm relatively new to NL200 & nl300 but he's always seemed to have a stack of cash in font of him when I see him on the tables.

Will answer the rest in a bit, especially BlackFish, got a long reply in me there...

TommyD

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

I don't get how you can say to yourself: 'I think he has AK'??
Posted by BlackFish3

Glad you asked that BF.  That's really the crux of me posting this.  As a hand it's unremarkable.  You ask who I can say to myself 'he has AK.'  I hate the term but for want of a better one it's about 'feel.'  Brain and 'feel' were in direct conflict.  Brain was saying 'AK doesn't turn up here too often on a cold 4bet.  I don't know this guy so I can't say he's silly enough or smart enough to overbet shove with AA, I have to assume he's somewhere in between great and awful.  He might shove KK, more likely QQ or JJ and trying to shutdown the hand.  Sometimes AK but not enough to make this +ev.  Let's fold.'  However feel was saying 'It's AK.  He doesn't know how to play it if he misses and he doesn't know how to fold it.  He's gone all MTT.  He's panicked, it's AK, call him.'

These situations occur for me on the odd occasion, fairly rarely though.  Feel has always won before.  Sometimes it's made me money, sometimes it's made me look like a donk.  It's completely illogical but you just sometimes think you know, even if you don't know why.  A lot of people call it guessing and that's a fair enough, might be a quite accurate description, but my guesses have a good strike rate.

Like I say, before this, 'feel' has won.  Suddenly I'm letting brain win and making that decision.  This might be great, perhaps 'feel' is just another word for gamble and ego, 'I'm a genius, I must be ahead, you don't win monezz by folding!'  Then again I might be ripping the heart out of the game.  We'll see how it goes

BlackFish3

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold : Glad you asked that BF.  That's really the crux of me posting this.  As a hand it's unremarkable.  You ask who I can say to myself 'he has AK.'  I hate the term but for want of a better one it's about 'feel.'  Brain and 'feel' were in direct conflict.  Brain was saying 'AK doesn't turn up here too often on a cold 4bet.  I don't know this guy so I can't say he's silly enough or smart enough to overbet shove with AA, I have to assume he's somewhere in between great and awful.  He might shove KK, more likely QQ or JJ and trying to shutdown the hand.  Sometimes AK but not enough to make this +ev.  Let's fold.'  However feel was saying 'It's AK.  He doesn't know how to play it if he misses and he doesn't know how to fold it.  He's gone all MTT.  He's panicked, it's AK, call him.' These situations occur for me on the odd occasion, fairly rarely though.  Feel has always  won before.  Sometimes it's made me money, sometimes it's made me look like a donk.  It's completely illogical but you just sometimes think you know, even if you don't know why.  A lot of people call it guessing and that's a fair enough, might be a quite accurate description, but my guesses have a good strike rate. Like I say, before this, 'feel' has won.  Suddenly I'm letting brain win and making that decision.  This might be great, perhaps 'feel' is just another word for gamble and ego, 'I'm a genius, I must be ahead, you don't win monezz by folding!'  Then again I might be ripping the heart out of the game.  We'll see how it goes
Posted by TommyD

I realised after I commented that his shove rather than raise may have given you some better idea of his range than a normal cold 4 betting range. I think AK will turn up lots here though.
My problem with feelings is they can come from experience or just a random guess. BUT... they can easily be influenced, for example tell yourself he has AK so that you can call with your 99 because you have already invested money and folding isn't fun.
Appreciate the long reply dude.

yb

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold : Glad you asked that BF.  That's really the crux of me posting this.  As a hand it's unremarkable.  You ask who I can say to myself 'he has AK.'  I hate the term but for want of a better one it's about 'feel.'  Brain and 'feel' were in direct conflict.  Brain was saying 'AK doesn't turn up here too often on a cold 4bet.  I don't know this guy so I can't say he's silly enough or smart enough to overbet shove with AA, I have to assume he's somewhere in between great and awful.  He might shove KK, more likely QQ or JJ and trying to shutdown the hand.  Sometimes AK but not enough to make this +ev.  Let's fold.'  However feel was saying 'It's AK.  He doesn't know how to play it if he misses and he doesn't know how to fold it.  He's gone all MTT.  He's panicked, it's AK, call him.' These situations occur for me on the odd occasion, fairly rarely though.  Feel has always  won before.  Sometimes it's made me money, sometimes it's made me look like a donk.  It's completely illogical but you just sometimes think you know, even if you don't know why.  A lot of people call it guessing and that's a fair enough, might be a quite accurate description, but my guesses have a good strike rate. Like I say, before this, 'feel' has won.  Suddenly I'm letting brain win and making that decision.  This might be great, perhaps 'feel' is just another word for gamble and ego, 'I'm a genius, I must be ahead, you don't win monezz by folding!'  Then again I might be ripping the heart out of the game.  We'll see how it goes
Posted by TommyD

I disagree with a lot of this. You 3bet to 15bbs and he has just over 100bbs behind, he can't really 4bet to a reasonable amount (i.e. where he could feasibly be 4bet/folding) without giving you ridiculously good odds to call, so if he is shoving with 100% of his 4betting range he played it fine imo. Especially as when you shove pre rather than 4betting to some ridic amount like 37bbs people love to put you on AK, so you can get max value when you have AA/KK.

CLIOKID

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold:

In Response to Re: I blame Beaneh for this fold : I disagree with a lot of this. You 3bet to 15bbs and he has just over 100bbs behind, he can't really 4bet to a reasonable amount (i.e. where he could feasibly be 4bet/folding) without giving you ridiculously good odds to call, so if he is shoving with 100% of his 4betting range he played it fine imo. Especially as when you shove pre rather than 4betting to some ridic amount like 37bbs people love to put you on AK, so you can get max value when you have AA/KK.
Posted by yb

4-bet shoving with AA/KK is a great way to get stacks in against QQ/JJ. Always looks like AK but rarely is.

hurst05

i dont see why people dont just show names of the villains? 

as this situation is player dependant cant really make an informed decision. 

i flat pre, but as played i fold.