explain this call? right to call?

waller02

this is from tonights 2k bounty hunter, we are on the final table with 3 left, the villain makes a standard raise to which i shove, now i'm not one to moan but this call and beat cost me a nice ladder up and a good chance of taking down the tourney, personally i would be laying down QJ to the shove but would that be too tight of me and is his call right? i had been playing a tight game so the villain had no reason to think i was shoving with junk, just want to know how many of you would have called in his spot, am i just too much of a nit to think he should have layed his hand down?
i'm keen to know as i have been folding these kind of hands in the villains spot and wonder if i have been too tight

	Small blind		6000.00	6000.00	184796.50
waller02	Big blind		12000.00	18000.00	153819.50
	Your hole cards	9 A
_sqwuiza_	Fold
	Raise		30000.00	48000.00	154796.50
waller02	All-in		153819.50	201819.50	0.00
	Call		129819.50	331639.00	24977.00
	Show	Q J
waller02	Show	9 A
Flop
		Q Q 9
Turn
		J
River
		5
	Win	Full House, Queens and Jacks	331639.00		356616.00

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GaryQQQ

Well done on yet another deep run Waller. It's good to know my crystal ball is still in full working order!

I think his call is standard, raise/folding would have been worse.

You two are playing for only 12.5BB effective stacks (ie your stack size). Any competent player will only raise 2.5BB here if he's fully prepared to call a shove. He has to put in 130K to win a 202K pot, take your bounty and get HU to win the tournament, that's around 1.55/1, good odds if he has 2 live cards. If your range is fairly tight, say any ace, any pair and any 2 broadway cards he has 41.6% equity in the pot, enough to call. Here's the maths;

41.6% of the time he wins 202K chips 41.6% x 202,000 = +84,032
58.4% of the time he loses 130K chips 58.4% x -130,000 = -75,920

+84,032 - 75,920 = +8,112

So on average a call will make a profit of 8,112 chips and 41.6% of the value of your bounty in cash. It's a good call. If he folds he makes a loss of 30,000 chips and gets 0% of your bounty. I'm sure it's now clear why calling is far preferable to folding.

If you told him your hole cards before he made his decision then it becomes even more profitable to call, his equity against your actual cards was 43.3%.

donkeyplop

Nice numbers Gary!

You should of applied for the job on countdown when Carol Vorderman left

Dudeskin8

In villains spot I'd make a smaller raise, no need for 3x at this level. Then when you shove I'd fold but tbh he's probably better open shoving.

GaryQQQ

In Response to Re: explain this call? right to call?:

Nice numbers Gary! You should of applied for the job on countdown when Carol Vorderman left
Posted by donkeyplop

I considered it, but I didn't think I'd look as good as her in the outfits.

FWIW I shove pre if I'm the villain and let Waller know he has to put his tournament life on the line to call. As played I shove too if I'm Waller, with an ace I'm prepared to get my stack in the middle and I suppose it's possible you might get an occasional fold from a weak opponent.

waller02

cheers for the input guys, great answer gary and it def does explain his call, with the added value of my bounty on top of that i suppose the call was right, still not a call i would have made but i am a nit after all!
i also agree if the villain was never folding then he should have open shoved.