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Flat or raise?

DeucesLiveDeucesLive
edited February 2011 in The Poker Clinic
Only just joined table, villain seems like a solid player so far- involved in one pot previously where he opened for 4x, but not yet seen a hand go to showdow. Slowplay on flop is debatable, but he c-bet his last hand, so I thought I'd give him the rope to hang himself- unfortunately, he didn't bite. Turn I wanted to build up the pot a little, then obviously the river is bet for value- but when he reraises there, should I be flatting or jamming? Obviously folding isn't in the equation. Based on the very, very limited reads I have here, I've got him on a house- so most likely 88/QQ. I can't see this being a bluff ever, so if I jam I'm getting a call 100% of the time.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
DeucesLive Small blind   £0.10 £0.10 £20.38
tallula959 Big blind   £0.20 £0.30 £18.44
  Your hole cards
  • 9
  • 9
     
xxxx Raise   £0.80 £1.10 £18.21
LANCEY Fold        
teddy707 Fold        
DeucesLive Call   £0.70 £1.80 £19.68
tallula959 Fold        
Flop
   
  • Q
  • 2
  • 9
     
DeucesLive Check        
xxxx Check        
Turn
   
  • 8
     
DeucesLive Check        
xxxx Bet   £0.90 £2.70 £17.31
DeucesLive Raise   £2.00 £4.70 £17.68
xxxx Call   £1.10 £5.80 £16.21
River
   
  • 2
     
DeucesLive Bet   £3.80 £9.60 £13.88
xxxx Raise   £10.50 £20.10 £5.71
DeucesLive ????  
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Comments

  • The_Don90The_Don90
    edited February 2011
    Interesting spot mate.

    I think looking at the hand we can rule out 22. He certainly bets the flop with that and likley doesnt raise UTG. So thats leaves QQ beating us. Again i think most players bet the flop with this.

    88 is definetly in his range, just flatting you re-raise on the turn, obviously JT makes the nut straight here, so maybe he flats wary of that, hoping for the board to pair on river.

    JT might be in his range and that pays us off two unless hes a very good player and can lay down putting you on the house.

    Even then i think he only has £5.71 back with only really QQ to worry about, i get it in myself.
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  • 5toneFace5toneFace
    edited February 2011

    Even if you think its QQ or 88 its a pretty easy shove. You beat 1 and lose to 1. But there are other hands he can have that you have beat. J 10, Maybe a slow played over pair, AQ, 2 pair, and maybe a 2, although cant see him having just a 2 really, but is possible. Could have 2 2. Also a missed flush draw that hes decided to bluff. So makes it an even easier shove.

    Ps, reraise bigger on the turn

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  • 5toneFace5toneFace
    edited February 2011
    In Response to Re: Flat or raise?:
    Interesting spot mate. I think looking at the hand we can rule out 22. He certainly bets the flop with that and likley doesnt raise UTG. So thats leaves QQ beating us. Again i think most players bet the flop with this. 88 is definetly in his range, just flatting you re-raise on the turn, obviously JT makes the nut straight here, so maybe he flats wary of that, hoping for the board to pair on river. JT might be in his range and that pays us off two unless hes a very good player and can lay down putting you on the house. Even then i think he only has £5.71 back with only really QQ to worry about, i get it in myself.
    Posted by The_Don90
    How can you rule out 22 lol
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  • The_Don90The_Don90
    edited February 2011
    In Response to Re: Flat or raise?:
    In Response to Re: Flat or raise? : How can you rule out 22 lol
    Posted by 5toneFace
    i explained this i think maybe i didnt. UTG will rarley raise with 22, some will fold, some will limp call and the fair few will raise.

    Again i think 99% of players would then c-bet with the set of 2's on the flop with the intention of building the pot.
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  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8
    edited February 2011
    Snap shove, I'm utterly amazed this was even a decision lolz.
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  • 5toneFace5toneFace
    edited February 2011
    In Response to Re: Flat or raise?:
    In Response to Re: Flat or raise? : i explained this i think maybe i didnt. UTG will rarley raise with 22, some will fold, some will limp call and the fair few will raise. Again i think 99% of players would then c-bet with the set of 2's on the flop with the intention of building the pot.
    Posted by The_Don90
    Both of these statements are bad and not true. Especially when he has no reads on the opponent. People would slow play a set on that board. Then when he gets reraised hes scared of J 10, so just calls. Or calls to trap his bluffs. Then booooooom 2 on the river.
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  • FlashFlushFlashFlush
    edited February 2011
    In Response to Re: Flat or raise?:
    Snap shove, I'm utterly amazed this was even a decision lolz.
    Posted by Dudeskin8
    This!

    I agree with stoneface on this as well, I raise with 2,2 UTG most the time 6 handed, no1 puts you on 2's if you have raised UTG, and I'm a nit apparently.
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  • The_Don90The_Don90
    edited February 2011
    In Response to Re: Flat or raise?:
    In Response to Re: Flat or raise? : This! I agree with stoneface on this as well, I raise with 2,2 UTG most the time 6 handed, no1 puts you on 2's if you have raised UTG, and I'm a nit apparently.
    Posted by FlashFlush
    yea i can understand why you would raise UTG with 2's i do it sometimes, but very few players do it in my experiance.
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  • LOL_RAISELOL_RAISE
    edited February 2011
    raise turn bigger and do what stoneface said
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  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8
    edited February 2011
    In Response to Re: Flat or raise?:
    In Response to Re: Flat or raise? : This! I agree with stoneface on this as well, I raise with 2,2 UTG most the time 6 handed, no1 puts you on 2's if you have raised UTG, and I'm a nit apparently.
    Posted by FlashFlush
    Yay ! A good player agreed with me ! :)
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  • silentbobsilentbob
    edited February 2011
    My game totally sucks at the moment but even I'm snap shoving that river every single time. There's only 2 hands beating you here & a whole host that you're well ahead of.
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  • DeucesLiveDeucesLive
    edited February 2011
    Ok, whilst I do agree there's a host of hands I'm ahead of- how many do you REALLY think raise that river, after the turn raise, and lead on river? That raise is pretty much never a bluff IMO, and AQ is a bluff if you raise. If he has any kind of reasonable showdown value there I think he flats and hopes.

    To be honest, I'd just started playing and wasn't fully in the zone and completely missed JT as a possible hand, I think if I'd been more alert and seen that I would have shoved. Realistically, inc. that, there are 4 possible hands he has (I think)- 88, QQ, 22 and JT. 22 is unlikely and I hadn't even considered JT, so it was kinda a weigh up between 88 and QQ.

    Looking at it with more time, I totally agree- I should have shoved the river. At the time, there were alarm bells screaming QQ at me- something about the amount of delay before he made each bet. Turned out he had 88 for the underhouse, which was obviously a relief, but I do feel like I missed out there and should have made the move.

    Turn raise sucked. I'm going back to poker school.
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  • pryce6pryce6
    edited February 2011
    I wish he had more money behind so I could laugh more.

    Turns out you only missed a 5er.
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  • CLIOKIDCLIOKID
    edited February 2011
    It's 20nl man.

    Don't overthink it.

    You are ahead here so many more times than not. Get it in.
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  • beanehbeaneh
    edited February 2011
    Deuces you say you can't see him bluffing, what if he value bets with a worse hand than the one you hold?

    If he checked back AQo on the flop he probably feels it's the nuts at this point.



    AREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN
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  • tiote22tiote22
    edited February 2011
    obv shove?
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  • ricoramb03ricoramb03
    edited February 2011
    Bet the flop, bet the turn and shove the river IMO, got to get max value with these hands :)
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  • thejudge10thejudge10
    edited February 2011
    id shove,if u had c bet the flop,and he shoved you would have called,so theres no difference to the river,shove the lot in,if he has 22,or qq,so be it.EV dictates play here snap shove
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