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Weekend footy betting (12th/13th)

edited March 2011 in Betting Chat
For once luck was on my side last weekend with my winner on Sunday but unfortunately the bookies have taken it all back with a little interest :( Hopefully the tide will turn again this weekend & I can get back to winning ways.

Two bets to begin with for me for tomorrow & I've decided to make a couple of changes.

Main Acca:

QPR to beat Palace (H) @ 4/9
Brighton to beat Tranmere (H) @ 2/5
Leyton Orient to beat Oldham (H) @ 8/11
Dundee to beat Queen of the South (H) @ 4/7
Livingston to beat Peterhead (H) @ 3/10

These 5 pay a tasty 6/1 so I've chucked a tenner at it as usual.

I've deliberately avoided going for straight wins in my main acca for a while in the hope that I might find better value elsewhere whilst picking up a few winners. Sadly this hasn't been the case so I've gone back to basics for now.

QPR should be as close to a home banker as you'll get this weekend. Despite losing 2-0 at Millwall in midweek they're still top of the division 7 points clear of 2nd placed Swansea. They've been particularly strong at Loftus Road too losing only once in 18 games there so far. That midweek defeat aside Rangers have actually been in very good form (as you'd probably expect from a team who are top of the league) having previously been unbeaten in 10. In contrast Palace are at the wrong end of the table & as I've pointed out before this is largely down to their travel sickness. In 18 attempts so far they've managed a single win on the road whilst losing 14. They'll be in buoyant mood coming into this game having beaten promotion chasing Cardiff at Selhurst in midweek but I really can't see them getting any joy in West London.
Brighton are another side who are top of their division & again they've been super strong at home. In 16 league games at the Withdean so far they've yet to lose. In fact only 4 sides have managed to come away from there with anything & the last side to do so was Charlton back in December. They're back in form & have won their last 3 straight & have only lost once in their last 9 home & away in the league. Tranmere are another side struggling at the wrong end of the table & they won't be relishing their long trip South. To say they're in poor form at the moment would be a bit of an understatement as they're winless in their last 6, of which they've lost 4. Again, it's a small price on offer for a home win here but as part of an acca I don't think you can ignore it.
I tried really hard to talk myself out of backing Leyton Orient here but I couldn't. My biggest worry with them is that they've been in outstanding form since the beginning of November & surely it's gonna end sooner or later, right? Even still, the fact that they're unbeaten in 12 & have won their last 2 has persuaded me to keep faith with them here too. They face an Oldham side who have pretty much blown any chance they had of grabbing a play off spot in the last 6 weeks. Since the beginning of February the Latics have won just once in 9 & have lost 5 of their last 6 home & away. They've failed to score in their last 4 on the road too & Russell Slade's side should see them off in East London.
Had Dundee not been deducted 25 points they would lead the Scottish first division by 5 points. As it is they're in 7th spot but in no real danger of being relegated unless they collapse in a major way. They haven't lost a league game since the end of September & haven't lost at home all season. Tomorrow they host a Queen of the South side who are in poor form at the moment. They've only won once in their last 8 & have lost 3 of their last 5. They've already met Dundee twice this season & lost both of them & I fully expect that to become 3 tomorrow.
Just like Dundee, Livingston are THE team to back in the 2nd division this season, particularly when they're at home. In 13 games on their own patch so far they've yet to lose & have only drawn two as well, with the last of those draws coming way back in September. They've won their last 4 straight home & away & have won the last 9 at home. This weekend they entertain Peterhead who are rock bottom of the division without a single win on the road in 14 attempts so far. This will be Peterhead's 2nd visit to Livingston this season & it should also be their 2nd defeat there too.

Massive Long Shot Acca:

Bolton to beat Birmingham (A) @ 6/4
Man Utd to beat Arsenal (H) @ evens
Burnley to beat Millwall (H) @ 10/11
Forest to beat Doncaster (H) @ 8/13
Leeds/Ipswich - Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6
Peterborough to beat Carlisle (H) @ 8/11
Chesterfield to beat Crewe (A) @ 6/4
Port Vale to beat Oxford (H) @ 11/10
Torquay/Shrewsbury - Both to Score @ 5/6
Raith to beat Partick (H) @ 5/6

These 10 potentially pay a monster 782/1 so only £1.40 staked for a possible return of nearly £1100!

Again, I've decided to make a slight change to my long shot too. Rather than picking 5 or 6 games that are odds against (yet have a chance on paper) I thought I'd go for shorter odds but a few more of them. It's still risky but that's why it's only really small stakes. These 10 have been chosen through a mixture of form & gut feelings.

Bolton are safe in the top flight for another season & whilst they've still got a chance of qualifying for Europe via the league they know the cup is probably their best chance. I doubt this game will be a classic but they're playing well & I fully expect Owen Coyle to put out a full strength side at St Andrews. In contrast Birmingham have already qualified for European competition next year thanks to their Carling cup win a couple of weeks ago. Right now though not only have they got more pressing concerns with retaining their top flight status but they've got massive injury problems too so it's gonna be a weakened side out there tomorrow through no choice of their own. 
United are probably playing Arsenal at the right time now. They've still got a few injury problems of their own but there's more at stake here than a semi final spot. Getting the win at OT is likely to give them a psychological boost in their fight for the league title with Arsenal too. Arsenal were totally outplayed in Spain in midweek & it remains to be seen how they'll react to that. They're relying on Almunia again as he's their only fit keeper & it looks as though they'll be missing Fabregas again too. There's no doubt they've got plenty of talent in their squad but I think this game has come at the wrong time for them.
Millwall had a fantastic result in midweek beating league leaders QPR at home but it's a different story on their travels. They've only 3 wins from 18 this season & they go to Turf Moor where Burnley don't lose too many. Burnley have won their last 3 home & away & they haven't lost at home since December. They'll be made to work for the points but I think they'll take them.
Forest have gone off the rails a little bit recently & are winless in their last 5 but they'll see this game as the perfect way to reignite their promotion push. Hull became the first side to take maximum points from the City Ground this season last weekend but I don't expect to see a repeat this time. Donny are shipping goals at an alarming rate particularly on the road. They've only won 4 from 18 on their travels so far & have the worst defensive away record in the division having conceded 41 goals. Last weekend saw them ship 5 at Leeds so it doesn't look good for them.
I was gonna back Leeds for the win at home to Ipswich but decided to take what I think is a safer option instead in backing the overs market. Ipswich showed last weekend that they're capable of springing a minor surprise on the road when they won at Cardiff. They've got goals in them particularly if Jimmy Bullard is passed fit to play. Likewise Leeds can also score & they're averaging nearly 2 goals per game this season. Their weakness though is their backline & they have the joint worst home defensive record in the league with 31 conceded in 18 at Elland Road (only bottom side Preston have conceded as many at home).
Unfortunately for us punters Darren Ferguson seems to have fixed Peterborough's leaky defence so backing both sides to score is no longer an automatic pick for accumulators. They've won 5 of their last 6 & have kept a clean sheet in their last 3. Carlisle gave leaders Brighton a scare at the Withdean last weekend & ended up losing 4-3 in the end so they've got goals in them. However they've lost their fair share on the road & a trip to Cambridgeshire has come at the wrong time as Peterborough are bang in form. 
Chesterfield are another side in form right now & the only reason I can think they're this big a price is because they're the visiting team. They've won 5 & lost 1 of their last 6 & have won the last 3 straight scoring 9 goals in the process. They go to a Crewe side who are really out of form at the moment. They've only won 1 of their last 8 (at home to struggling Burton) & 6 of the other 7 have ended in defeat. It might be worth including this game in a both to score acca as they are capable of scoring themselves but they're leaking a lot more goals than they're scoring right now.
Port Vale seem to have found their feet again after a bad run over Christmas & new year that threatened to derail their promotion push. They're unbeaten in their last 3 (winning 2) & have only lost once in their last 8. Oxford had been looking a decent shout for a play off push themselves but they've hit bad form at the wrong time. They're still not far off the play off spots but they come into this game on the back of 3 straight defeats & they won't fancy a trip to a resurgent Vale side.
Both Torquay & Shrewsbury like to score goals & the last 3 meetings have seen them both score at least once each. Torquay have scored in their last 13 in the league at Plainmoor whilst only 2nd placed Bury have kept a clean sheet against Shrewsbury in their last 7 on the road.
As I touched upon earlier, technically Dundee should be leading the Scottish 1st division but thanks to their 15 point deduction Raith are in pole position. However as they've gained more points than anyone else they clearly deserve to be there & this weekend should see them at least maintain their lead when they host a Partick side who don't travel well. In 12 attempts so far Partick have only managed 1 win on the road. Partick have already visited Stark's Park once this season & came away on the wrong end of a 4-0 defeat on that occasion. Raith come into this game with 4 wins in their last 6 & their 2 defeats in that sequence both came against Dundee. 

Good luck if you're having a go this weekend. I may add one or two more tomorrow & as ever I'll post them up here if I do.

Jay

Comments

  • edited March 2011

    Saturdays selections, permed as 7 timers, 8 timers and an accumulator.

    Bit nervous about QPR now as I noticed silentbob has backed them ;0)

    FootballNpower ChampionshipQ.P.R. v Crystal PalaceMatch Result 12/03/2011 15:00Q.P.R. @ 4/9
    FootballFA CupMan. Utd v ArsenalTotal Corners 12/03/2011 17:15Over 11 Corners @ 11/8 Extra Time Does Not Count.
    FootballNpower League 1Swindon v DagenhamHalf with Most Goals 12/03/2011 15:00Second @ evens
    FootballNpower League 1Colchester v MK DonsTo Score 2+ Goals 12/03/2011 15:00MK Dons @ 15/8
    FootballNpower League 2Torquay v ShrewsburyBoth Teams to Score 12/03/2011 15:00Yes @ 5/6
    FootballNpower ChampionshipNottm. Forest v DoncasterTo Score 2+ Goals 12/03/2011 15:00Nottm. Forest @ 8/11
    FootballNpower League 2Lincoln v SouthendBoth Teams to Score 12/03/2011 15:00Yes @ 5/6
    FootballScottish Division 2Ayr Utd. v AlloaTo Score 2+ Goals 12/03/2011 15:00Ayr Utd. @ 4/7
    FootballNpower League 1Sheff. Wed v Notts Co.Match Result 12/03/2011 15:00Sheff. Wed @ 11/10
  • edited March 2011
    Bristol Rovers v Huddersfield
    Peterborough
    v Carlisle
    Crewe v Chesterfield
    Torquay v Shrewsbury

    £5 acca pays £144.21
  • edited March 2011
    This is the bet im looking at.

    QPR -1 against Crystal Palace

    Hull and Coventry both to score

    Burnley to beat Millwall or ( Man utd to beat Arsenal )
  • edited March 2011

    £1 on a ten team accumulator returns £125 - although livingston has been postponed so that match is void!

    N Forest
    Burnley
    QPR
    Leeds
    Swansea
    Brighton
    Peterborough
    Huddersfield
    Livingston
    Cardiff


    Next is a long shot at over 320/1 so also stuck a quid on!

    Charlton
    Huddersfield
    Bournemouth - Southampton - Draw
    Man united - Arsenal - Draw
    QPR
    Portsmouth
    Swansea


    finally this one at 9/1 - put £4 on

    Leeds - Ipswich - Over 2.5 goals
    York
    QPR
    Brighton
    Peterborough - Carlise - C Mackail-Smith to score anytime

    good luck to everyone having a bet this weekend!

  • edited March 2011
    Had lots of botrh temas to score bets and over 2.5 goal bets too many tolist but my win bets are

    Forrest
    Qpr
    Leyton Orient
    Peterborugh
    York

    All strong fancies, all at home, all playing well, all playing poor teams

    and

    Man United
    Qpr
    Brighton
    Chesterfield
    Crawley
    Raith
    Livingston
    Arbroath

    Not Much thoguht itno this bet every team leads there league (except crawly but they have around 100 games in ahdn and will be top).
  • edited March 2011
    Decided to have one more bet for this afternoon

    Both to Score Acca:

    Bournemouth/Southampton @ 8/11
    Charlton/Brentford @ 5/6
    Rochdale/Exeter @ 8/11
    Sheff Weds/Notts Co @ 8/11
    Port Vale/Oxford @ 5/6
    Stockport/Burton @ 4/7

    These 6 pay 26/1 so I've had £3 on
  • edited March 2011
    Had £20 on change on a 14/5 trebble.

    Forest
    QPR
    Peterboro'
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: Weekend footy betting (12th/13th):
    Bristol Rovers v Huddersfield Peterborough v Carlisle Crewe v Chesterfield Torquay v Shrewsbury £5 acca pays £144.21
    Posted by splashies
    At least Shrews never gave you any hope!

    And whats your team up to?! poor result today, got my team away next saturday ;-)
  • edited March 2011
    ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH bluddy forrest!!!
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: Weekend footy betting (12th/13th):
    ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH bluddy forrest!!!
    Posted by shazallin
    +1

    I should never bet against my own team, it serves me right!!!

    Our season is over though, we have nothing left to play for, and shouldn't get dragged into the relegation battle either, so I thought I'd go with my head rather than my heart for once........

    Never again :(
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: Weekend footy betting (12th/13th):
    In Response to Re: Weekend footy betting (12th/13th) : At least Shrews never gave you any hope! And whats your team up to?! poor result today, got my team away next saturday ;-)
    Posted by christiann
    Damn shrews!

    Our game was awful today, we are hopeless at the minute. Gary Johnson is deffo the man to turn it around though.

    Next sat, so your team is Bradford then?(off the top of my head) I went to that game last season when it was the anniversary of the Valley Parade fire. It was a shame that game was spoilt by some of the mindless Bradford fans who taunted us after the game. Especially as most of us donated money before the game.

    Good to see that Bradford came down hard on it though and identified most of the trouble makers.

    We don't have a chance next week. Most of our players don't have any bottle.
  • edited March 2011
    WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

    Not one but TWO late goals to bring in the moolah for me today. Gotta admit though it wasn't looking too good at one stage. The Livingston game being postponed reduced it down a touch to a little over 4/1 but an extra £55 in the account is always welcome.

    Now for tomorrow's games & hopefully I can do it all again.

    Stoke/West Ham - Both to Score @ 5/6
    Man City to beat Reading (H) @ 4/11
    Rangers to beat Kilmarnock (H) @ 2/7
    PSV to beat NEC (A) @ 8/13

    These 4 pay 4/1 so another tenner on.

    This will be the forth meeting between ourselves & Stoke this season & so far we've had the better of it. We drew 1-1 at the Britannia back in September, beat them 3-1 at Upton Park in the league cup (albeit in extra time) & 3-0 last weekend in the return league game. Stoke were pretty poor last weekend & if we are to win again tomorrow I highly doubt it'll be as resounding as last weekend. We'll be made to work bloody hard for anything we get up there & I think it'll be an open game. Stoke are always capable of sticking one or two in at home & we've proved that we can certainly score too in recent weeks with 14 in our last 4 games. We've a pretty leaky defence though which is why I think both sides will score.
    I've said it a few times already this season but City are desperate for some silverware this year & the FA Cup is their best chance. Reading did superbly well in the last round grinding out a 1-0 win away at Everton but I can't see them getting anything out of this game. The last thing City want is another replay & they'll want to put this one to bed at the first attempt. I fancy it'll pretty much be a full strength City side out there tomorrow afternoon & whilst I doubt they'll steamroller them in the same way they did Notts Co in the last round, they should be far too strong for a Reading side looking to clinch a play off spot.
    Rangers are currently 5 points behind leaders Celtic but they have two games in hand so they can close the gap with maximum points at home to Kilmarnock. It's not great odds on offer here but looking at Kilmarnock's recent record against Rangers it's definitely worthy of inclusion. Rangers have won 12 of the last 13 meetings between the two in all competitions (the other being a draw) & Kilmarnock have only one victory in the last 37 meetings! (Rangers have won 32 of these). 
    I've included PSV in here for a little extra value so I'm hoping they're not the ones to let me down! They're currently top of the Dutch Eredivisie, 3 points clear of 2nd placed Twente who host 2nd from bottom VVV Venlo tomorrow so maximum points for PSV are a must in Nijmegen. PSV are in great form at the moment with only 1 defeat in their last 10 in the league & they've only lost 1 on the road all season as well. NEC are currently mid-table with pretty much nothing to play for now. They should be clear enough of relegation to not worry about that & are probably too far away from the UEFA cup play off spots too. On the face of it they also come into this game in decent form with only 1 defeat in their last 10 but 7 of the other 9 have been draws. PSV certainly have the upper hand in recent meetings between the two of them only losing twice since the turn of the century & they've won the last 3 by an aggregate score of 10-1. Being away from home I expect it to be a little trickier for them but they should have enough about them to take the points.

    Good luck if you're having a go tomorrow

    Jay
  • edited March 2011
    Nice work Jay.
  • edited March 2011
    I had a free £5 bet to use up so I've chucked it on a 2-1 win for my boys at Stoke today @ 11/1.


  • edited March 2011
    Only an 89th minute equaliser in Holland prevented another winner today. I suppose I can't complain too much seeing as two late goals gace me a winner yesterday though.

    Nevermind, there's a few games in midweek
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: Weekend footy betting (12th/13th):
    In Response to Re: Weekend footy betting (12th/13th) : Damn shrews! Our game was awful today, we are hopeless at the minute. Gary Johnson is deffo the man to turn it around though. Next sat, so your team is Bradford then?(off the top of my head) I went to that game last season when it was the anniversary of the Valley Parade fire. It was a shame that game was spoilt by some of the mindless Bradford fans who taunted us after the game. Especially as most of us donated money before the game. Good to see that Bradford came down hard on it though and identified most of the trouble makers. We don't have a chance next week. Most of our players don't have any bottle.
    Posted by splashies
    yeah i remember that, unfortunately we do have a small section of 'youth' fans who like to embarass us occasionally, the occassion didn't matter to them..fortunately they are only a small percentage and the majority of our fans had maximum respect towards the Northampton fans for their kind donations, i remember the thread on the messageboard after the game.

    I wouldn't rule out a Northampton win on Saturday, i know your out of form but whenever a team goes on a run of defeats, were usually the one to end it..hope not though!
  • edited March 2011
    In Response to Re: Weekend footy betting (12th/13th):
    In Response to Re: Weekend footy betting (12th/13th) : yeah i remember that, unfortunately we do have a small section of 'youth' fans who like to embarass us occasionally, the occassion didn't matter to them..fortunately they are only a small percentage and the majority of our fans had maximum respect towards the Northampton fans for their kind donations, i remember the thread on the messageboard after the game. I wouldn't rule out a Northampton win on Saturday, i know your out of form but whenever a team goes on a run of defeats, were usually the one to end it..hope not though!
    Posted by christiann
    Yeh I thought Bradford handled it very well.

    I won't be going on sat, we are even worse away from home. Il take a 0-0 now.
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