Call or raise river with bottom set?

mattless

Very early on 10nl table. No real reads. Except villains limp at this level makes his range very wide. Should I Raise pre firstly but once I don't, I think slow play is resonable.

So, as per title should I have flatted river on this relatively dry board or am I correct to raise in the long term?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
stewspot	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£9.65
madden08	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£8.35
	Your hole cards	3 3
BananaDog	Call		£0.10	£0.25	£7.71
higgins10	Fold
mattless	Call		£0.10	£0.35	£10.25
howesinhio	Call		£0.10	£0.45	£10.04
stewspot	Call		£0.05	£0.50	£9.60
madden08	Check
Flop
		A 8 3
stewspot	Check
madden08	Check
BananaDog	Bet		£0.38	£0.88	£7.33
mattless	Call		£0.38	£1.26	£9.87
howesinhio	Fold
stewspot	Fold
madden08	Fold
Turn
		10
BananaDog	Bet		£1.26	£2.52	£6.07
mattless	Call		£1.26	£3.78	£8.61
River
		4
BananaDog	Bet		£3.78	£7.56	£2.29
mattless	All-in		£8.61	£16.17	£0.00
BananaDog	All-in		£2.29	£18.46	£0.00
mattless	Unmatched bet		£2.54	£15.92	£2.54
BananaDog	Show	8 8
mattless	Show	3 3
BananaDog	Win	Three 8s	£14.72		£14.72

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yb

raise pre imo, as played river is an easy ship.

ciderhic

You floped a set, even better you floped a set with an ace on board mult-way with someone leading into you on every street.

Stop being results oriented, you absolutly need to be raising at some point in this hand with a view of getting all your chips in here, wether you do it on flop, turn or river that depends on your reads and style etc. but you should be always 100% of the time be trying to get all of your chips in the middle.

The fact that villian had an over set is besides the point, he has a hell of a lot more aces and bluffs in his range than the exsact hand of 88

As played: the raise on the river is good.

CLIOKID

In Response to Re: Call or raise river with bottom set?:

raise pre imo, as played river is an easy ship.
Posted by yb

I'm not sure raising pre with 3's at this level is the way to go.

You are guaranteed callers and non-folders post flop. 

Get in cheaply and play it very strongly when you make a set I'd say. 

Flatting the river here would be horrible. It sucks that you lost but not raising here you would be losing out on so much value in the long run.

mattless

In Response to Re: Call or raise river with bottom set?:

You floped a set, even better you floped a set with an ace on board mult-way with someone leading into you on every street. Stop being results oriented, you absolutly need to be raising at some point in this hand with a view of getting all your chips in here, wether you do it on flop, turn or river that depends on your reads and style etc. but you should be always 100% of the time be trying to get all of your chips in the middle. The fact that villian had an over set is besides the point, he has a hell of a lot more aces and bluffs in his range than the exsact hand of 88 As played: the raise on the river is good.
Posted by ciderhic

Not being results orientated, know it was a bit of a cooler. Just wanted reassurance that raise on river as played is correct. Concensus is that it was, so v happy.

The_Don90

i already posted this and it failed

Raise on the river is always correct. However they way youve played till then is bad, Raise the flop and the turn, we as a set get the money in and 8/10 times your getting PAID!!!!


I also know your opponent pretty well, and i actually know they probably wont call the river with worse unless they have T2P but even still in the long term BET BET BET

Dudeskin8

Why are you not raising the flop and at the very least the turn, do you actually want to win moniez ?

DeucesLive

Don't particularly mind the limp pre, 3's are hardly a monster and you're unlikely to get any folds- with one limper already, you can comfortably limp behind and call a small raise if it comes in- raising gets you in more trouble than it's worth at this level IMO, since you're forced to fold almost any flop not including a 3. Assuming you don't get 3 bet and then stuck in a pot way bigger than your hand.

Flatting the flop is fine for me- could have just been a c-bet with air, so at least give him the initiative to try again on turn.

I'd be looking to get it in then on turn, expecting to be up against an ace or maybe two pair- sucks when he's got a set but oh well.

As played, and I know hindsight is 20/20, I'd actually be very wary of that river against villain in question- against an unknown it's a snap shove, and because of what he has back, it's still probably the right play- but I think after limping pre then firing on every street, that villain has a set like 90% of the time. He's not representing any draws, namely as there aren't any, so unless he's gone wild with a 3 barrel bluff (I've seen him rep two streets a couple times before checking and giving up on river, but never 3 with air) there's almost no other hands he has. Pretty sure he check/calls any ace on the river, maybe even 2 pair.

CLIOKID

Deuces shouldn't be allowed to post on this thread after his flat with the set the other week.

:-)

Seriously though...

You say that villain has a set 90% of the time? The only reallistic set is 8's. 

You can't just rigidly stick them on 8's here IMO.

Much more likely to have 2 pair than a set if you ask me. I'd be value betting A8, AT, A3 & A4 on this river.

Playing effectively 70 bigs here, we should be looking to get all the money in 100% of the time.

DeucesLive

lol I so didn't flat with a set!

I flatted with a house, big difference still haven't seen it! I cry a little more every time I think about it though. I'm such a nit. I actually think I should be banned from the clinic altogether.

This is totally villain dependent for me though, he *may* vbet with A10 and A8, A3 is hugely unlikely, and he doesn't bet till the river with A4 IMO, he would normally shut down and go into check/call mode by the turn.

I think he has A10/A8 sometimes here, but 88/TT far more often. Agreed that it would be an unbelievably well disguised play with aces, can't see that ever. I do agree that as played with the stack he has back, you have to shove here- but I think if stacks are deeper I'd be more inclined to flat, he's a tight player who will rarely bet on 3 streets without a very solid hand, and I mean set minimum. If the board was a bit more drawy and all the draws missed on the river, I could see him v-betting wider, but the board is too dry I think.

CLIOKID

In Response to Re: Call or raise river with bottom set?:

lol I so didn't flat with a set! I flatted with a house, big difference still haven't seen it! I cry a little more every time I think about it though. I'm such a nit. I actually think I should be banned from the clinic altogether. This is totally villain dependent for me though, he *may* vbet with A10 and A8, A3 is hugely unlikely, and he doesn't bet till the river with A4 IMO, he would normally shut down and go into check/call mode by the turn. I think he has A10/A8 sometimes here, but 88/TT far more often. Agreed that it would be an unbelievably well disguised play with aces, can't see that ever. I do agree that as played with the stack he has back, you have to shove here- but I think if stacks are deeper I'd be more inclined to flat, he's a tight player who will rarely bet on 3 streets without a very solid hand, and I mean set minimum. If the board was a bit more drawy and all the draws missed on the river, I could see him v-betting wider, but the board is too dry I think.
Posted by DeucesLive

Why would you limp with TT and bet an A high flop?

You'd have to be an uber nit not to value bet A8/AT in this spot IMO.

yb

the river is definitely a shove against any opponent, I think 88/TT are heavily discounted because of the preflop action and if the villain does have Ax here they aren't folding for 23 bbs into a ~135bb pot.

cliokid idk if its right at this level but I'd be iso raising pre in position against the utg limper as we should be able to get plenty of c/f's on the right flops.

DeucesLive

ofc it is with stack sizes, you can't dodge there- but I do think flatting if you were much deeper would, against this player, be better IMO. If he has 80+bbs back on river, he doesn't call a raise without a set from what I know of him, even if he does v-bet with 2 pair.

And fair point, it's very unlikely he has TT ever here.