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Playing bad or Running bad?
Playing NLHE100 at alternate site. Tables pretty tight, I'm opening and c betting alot KJo on the button 4x BB
Flop A10Qr. I open big to look bluffy, guy min raises, I raise big he flats.
Turn A10Q2. I open two thirds, he min raises I jam, he calls.
Hel holds 10 Q, Q binks the river. Flopped BW to house.
Few hands later pocket 8's. Flop comes 8s3c2s. I open, he raises, I Jam he calls. he holds pocket 4's, hits runner runner flush. Top set, beatan by runner runner flush.
My AA 4 bet (big) pre flop comes 6s7sQh. He opens, I raise, he jams, I'm slightly snakebit so call off alot more than i should. He shows pocket 5's, 5 binks the river. Over pair beat by river 4.4% lightning bolt.
I'm not complaining or moaning, I see this live more often than I'd like also.
I'm just trying to take a new look at my online game to see if there's a flaw I'm missing. All these hands were heads up to the flop. This is my average day online. So running bad or playing bad?
Flop A10Qr. I open big to look bluffy, guy min raises, I raise big he flats.
Turn A10Q2. I open two thirds, he min raises I jam, he calls.
Hel holds 10 Q, Q binks the river. Flopped BW to house.
Few hands later pocket 8's. Flop comes 8s3c2s. I open, he raises, I Jam he calls. he holds pocket 4's, hits runner runner flush. Top set, beatan by runner runner flush.
My AA 4 bet (big) pre flop comes 6s7sQh. He opens, I raise, he jams, I'm slightly snakebit so call off alot more than i should. He shows pocket 5's, 5 binks the river. Over pair beat by river 4.4% lightning bolt.
I'm not complaining or moaning, I see this live more often than I'd like also.
I'm just trying to take a new look at my online game to see if there's a flaw I'm missing. All these hands were heads up to the flop. This is my average day online. So running bad or playing bad?
Comments
Good ruck.
I CANNOT win online lol, I'm just asking you guys that can, if you can see what I'm doing wrong here. I've pretty much given up online play, I've put 2k on a new site, but have had no success there either.
I'm sincerely asking if this is running bad or playing bad. I cant decide if I should be letting a card come off or stab at poy control. Both of which I find very hard to do here as am 90% and upwards.
Again what bias? Also I dont agree that you should EXPECT TO RUN BAD, merely BE PREPARED TO RUN BAD.
Where is the bias??? I'm asking a question!! I'm making no judgement on the outcome, nor my opponents actions. I'm asking If there is a flaw to my approach - as in did I play the hand correctly/wrongly - or am i just currently running bad??? Where is the bias???
I am sincerely asking if there is a critical flaw to my game that I'm not aware of. This is TRULY how I have been running for a very long time now, which may be responsible for my (perhaps) twisted point of view. Honestly pretty much every critical hand goes this way online for me. Maybe I am just on the very far end of the negative variance spectrum. I'm not sending you up, nor looking to do anything than ask your opinions. But I guess I can understand why you feel that may be the case.
This is how bad online poker has got my head turned round.
I have no problem loosing, I applaud a guy who traps and felts me. But on everything I hold sacred if I'm not in the 75% range at the turn I prefer to use pot control, having suffered negative variance for so long. It just seems I cant dodge the 4 or less outs when the moneys in. Again not blaming anything, trying to to take something away from NODEAL's critisism - questioning, rather than accusing. Maybe there's an answer out there that I've blinded myself too.
You have no idea how much I've read or played bud. I dont agree in moving down, as lower the money is utterly meaningless and the play 10x worse I am a very successful live player. I'm not looking to be improved either really. I was maybe just looking for some validation at running so bad so long. Believe it or not bud there are alot of people out there where the math simply just does not hold up, I am sincerely one of them. I was never talking about the first outome, I dont whine or get annoyed at one bad beat.
Maybe I have just run so bad for so long online my persective is utterly distorted.
Thats actually a really good point, I'll put some up. But it doesnt help when you lose the vast majority of all in critical pots at 90% and upwards.
My losses arent connected to a lack of understanding or flamey style. It is directly connected to loosing all but a minority of critical all in pots, where I'm normally 90% upwards favourite. I respect that that sounds incredible but its the truth. I rarely tilt, nor get my money in bad, maybe I'm an utter abberation, who knows. What I was really looking to find was if there was something in my STYLE that was harmful or incompatible.
But I guess I am being ungracious as I was looking for advice, but theres a way and a means you know? I'm going to work with whats left of my 2K at PS then call online a day I think.
If I do have a very very serious flaw though its this. I am a pretty successful at online tournaments. It is my strongest game, thats how my BR got so big so fast (coming second in the sunday brawl). The majority of my online losses are cash. So I really should stop playing online cash right? But either way when your 90% going to the turn when two to a flop, whether its cash or S+G shouldnt change anything. I guess working against a known flaw is pretty stubborn though.
Every hand you post involves getting it all in. Now I understand the mathematics of a 90% shot paying even money (I've got a rusty degree in mathematics!), but this question was not about whether all of your bets were good ones as clearly they were, you asked about your style of play.
Something to ponder?
I've kind of just decided that I run bad and accepted it. I think I may just deposit 5% of my live winnings a month for a bit and see if this pattern can change.
But thanks, this was the question of "style" i was meaning.
its good for someone to look at your game you can have some serious leaks in other areas of your game, you can be spewing a load of cash in certain areas and leaving a ton of dead money or value in other spots which can seriously effect your win rate, its so easy just to put it down to variance, by improving other areas you can seriously reduce downswings
it also sounds that you are letting bad variance effect your decisions thus you probably are losing value in these spots,
This aside, I dont see how my run changes if I keep losing the allin critical pots. Genuinely not talking coin flips, am talking AT LEAST 80% at turn and less than 1% off the flop, getting binked a very improbable amount of the time. Plus Losing far too often when flopping the SCN to runner runner FH, or river set. I really am not exaggerating, that is how bad I run. Without whining or moaning about it, I just dont see playing online as my path forward. With this in mind the argument about online/live harder/easier becomes kind of moot also (speaking for myself).
But You've given me a new angle to look at and think upon, so thankyou. As I've said I just cannot win online, If I showed you the run of seriously improbable beats I've sustained It'd give you a clearer picture, but its mostly pointless. I'm going to ride out my remaining BR, hoping the tide changes. But I make very good money live, it just feels like I should be putting more energy into that area again. Which also means no more online poker critiqueing from me
But getting more value is always a good thing so I shall definately look into it.
if you have HM take a screenshot of your stats and post it on here and see what feedback you get if you havnt got HM or PT then thats probably a leak in its self
I know much of my posts have had a certain slant, thanks for taking this thread in the spirit it was intended.
Three hands in round 90 minutes last night left me clutching the sides of my head:
AJ vs 55
AJ6 9 at the turn. Standard bets pre/flop. I like to Dwan it a bit and overbet this strong normally. I bet two thirds pot, he min raises I call.
AJ6 9 5. I lead out, he jams, for the difference folding isnt an option I call. River set takes it
A7 vs JJ
flop A74. Again standard bets
A74 7. Should be gin. Exactly same type of bets
A74 7 J. He Jams on top I call. River set.
This happened to me like 19 times in a 4 day period online, which is probably where some of my recent negativity came from. I really do run consistently this bad Within a 1hr session this week I had J's Q' and K's cracked concurrently by pocket 3's.
Again, I'm not complaining or questioning online poker, I'm trying to get past my suspicions and hold a mirror to my game. I can be the voice of dissent or I can respect that there are a fair few guys making a living on here and see if there's an deep flaw to my game.
I just think that online poker may not be a fit for me. My strengths are patience and a really strong reading ability, which are kind of nullified by the online aspect. If I'm going to retire my accounts, I think I'll do it on that basis, rather than go out whining.
If I'm going to let the river come off for free, its just really problematic to considor folding to the 1 or two hands I felt I was drawing against. Question is, after at least three bets have gone, how hard is that fold going to be? Surely the preffered play is to get it in on the 90%, fading the losses of the 1/10 to the huge gains of the 9/10. It hasnt seemed to work out for me though.