Overly Cautious or good read..... Hmmmmmm not sure.

AMYBR

QQJ flop - run for the hills! Hits a bullseye on just about everything that villains like to play.

AMYBR

Playing 2/4 live last night after taking down 3rd in a 80 seater £250 DS FO.  Decent cash, followed by marginal gain in cash game.  One very strange hand though.

Playing 6 seater cash , I've got a little less than £500, but as Its very late the regulars are sat really deep.  I've not been sat too long though as hung around in the FO.

Played a pot with 2 of my poker "buddies" .  I've called a 3xBB from the button with 910d.  3 to the flop.

JQQ.  Goes check check chech.

JQQ9 I decide to put some money in incase I make my straight on the river/9 may be good, but mainly to see what they do  I bet £18.  Initial raiser wastes little time re popping to £55 (same guy from the other hand I posted that likes to bet any draw BIG).  Guy on my right calls, in a somewhat timid way but I've played with him for years so didnt quite know what to make of it.  Normally I dont really feel like folding here, given the re draw odds: £37 into £164 getting maybe 29% most likely 17% or even only 9% i guess.

On this occasion I just felt like  might of already been drawing dead, or that I was drawing to the same hand, or weaker straight.  Really felt like raiser only held a 10 also, but I also just felt if my "timid" friend held KQ I was setting myself up for alot of hurt on the river.  I reluctantly fold, feeling like it was the right movet though.

JQQ98

Hmmm, felt like I may have lost out on this one, until the betting starts.  Guys go crazy on the river, ends up being 4 bet all in.  Raiser held 104, my "timid" friend had flopped quads

Think I have to thank online poker for steering me clear of that one.

To peel any way or not to peel, given known odds?

scotty77

on paired boards, especially with paint, always best to get out the way. 

even if you do call and bink a K/8, you can't really be look to getting much money in the pot as the only hands you will get action from you are chopping with/losing to.

CLIOKID

Chance of already drawing dead [x]

Chance of getting paid if you make your straight for the best hand [ ]

Fold [xxxxxxxx]

DeucesLive

Well, you have to look at your implied odds as everyone else said- if you hit your card there's a 0% chance of someone calling you with worse than the same straight, so your implied odds here are non existant when there's 4 straightening cards on the board.

What would be interesting though, is say it comes a 2 on the turn- forget the fact he ended up having quads, what would you have done on the turn then? Implied odds are infinitely higher now you know a K or 8 makes a much more disguised straight that has a better chance of being paid off by trips.

Say you do get involved and the 8 rivers again- would you stack off happily?

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Overly Cautious or good read..... Hmmmmmm not sure.:

Well, you have to look at your implied odds as everyone else said- if you hit your card there's a 0% chance of someone calling you with worse than the same straight, so your implied odds here are non existant when there's 4 straightening cards on the board. What would be interesting though, is say it comes a 2 on the turn- forget the fact he ended up having quads, what would you have done on the turn then? Implied odds are infinitely higher now you know a K or 8 makes a much more disguised straight that has a better chance of being paid off by trips. Say you do get involved and the 8 rivers again- would you stack off happily?
Posted by DeucesLive

Yeah good question.  With the board being paired I know I dont go broke on the river.  As someone mentioned above (and as I mentioned in OP) too high a chance your drawing dead anyhow

In this spot it just seemed far easier to not set my self up for a difficult decision on the river, by folding the turn.  At this table though its not always the right move to play timid against the gentleman raising my bet on the turn.  Have played with him for a very long time and his games a bit of an open book to me.  So when he raises to £55 there's just no way I'm folding to him, in that spot.  The paired board is utterly meaningless - or over the long run if you gave him credit for connecting with that board you may as well just meet him outside and give him your money .   But Mr oh so timid with quads call just made me lose interest.  

To be honest I was surprised to see him 4 bet all in on the river.  I think once his check raise had been re popped, he felt he had to turn his hand into a bluff, reping J's or JQ.

DeucesLive

oh, in this spot it's definitely a fold no question. I'd be curious to see what the opinion is if it's only 2 straightening cards on the turn as opposed to 3 though, whether or not you'd be more inclined to call with implied odds and then how much you lose when you river the straight. 

I think possibly with your reads it's still not worth calling turn in that spot.

offshoot

just check turn, dont like the lead. Youre not gonna get paid if you hit on the river and there arent many hands you need to prtect against, plus people check back better hands on that flop.

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Overly Cautious or good read..... Hmmmmmm not sure.:

just check turn, dont like the lead. Youre not gonna get paid if you hit on the river and there arent many hands you need to prtect against, plus people check back better hands on that flop.
Posted by offshoot

I was on the button, they both check the flop to me, then again on the turn.  I think it would have been incredibly more expensive getting to the river with no information and making  what would seem to be the nut straight, as its very rare someone would check the 10 K twice.  I think I have to do a bit of cheap recon at the turn just to see whats happening in the hand.  The bet cheaply gives me the information I need going to the river.  I'm perfectly happy with the bet there.  Going to the river blind would have been far more confusing. 

offshoot

soz i didnt see you were last to act.

AMYBR

In Response to Re: Overly Cautious or good read..... Hmmmmmm not sure.:

oh, in this spot it's definitely a fold no question. I'd be curious to see what the opinion is if it's only 2 straightening cards on the turn as opposed to 3 though, whether or not you'd be more inclined to call with implied odds and then how much you lose when you river the straight.  I think possibly with your reads it's still not worth calling turn in that spot.
Posted by DeucesLive

I think with the 2 straighteners, rather than 3 then I do peel, getting the nearly 5/1, as I can discount a couple of paint variants nullifying my hand - still get to play the hand in position at the river but wouldnt be looking to make a big pot out of it no matter what.  I'm just pretty happy there was a rock in a buffer position in the hand, as I know that I'm going to face a tricky decision from the reg making it £55 whether he makes his hand or not.

But again this is why i folded, I did only put him on the 10 correctly, but doesnt mean he'd make it easy for me on the end.

I'm a 80% math/20% feel player.  So ignoring those odds against a known loose cannon is tricky