Thoughts on how i played flush/straight draw on the flop

hamster880

i know the preflop call here is a bit loose, and i was almost certain i was up against an overpair (and i knew it from his re-raise) but was looking to get a little lucky on the flop. I didnt hit the flop, but had a MASSIVE draw. (I check out the % and on the flop i was actually a very slight favourite) Do you guys think it pretty much played itself (or was i little over aggressive on the flop).



Hand History #363237365 (01:55 19/04/2011)

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
ZINOM	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£12.54
BigJDizzle	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£1.67
	Your hole cards	·         9 club·         8 club
gurdyboy	Fold
hamster880	Raise		£0.30	£0.45	£8.40
stacks07	Fold
xxxxx	Raise		£0.90	£1.35	£8.80
ZINOM	Fold
BigJDizzle	Fold
hamster880	Call		£0.60	£1.95	£7.80
Flop
		·         J club·         10 club·         4 heart
hamster880	Check
xxxxx	Bet		£1.46	£3.41	£7.34
hamster880	All-in		£7.80	£11.21	£0.00
xxxx	Call		£6.34	£17.55	£1.00
hamster880	Show	·         9 club·         8 club
xxxx	Show	·         A heart·         A club
Turn
		·         9 heart
River
		·         3 spade
xxxx	Win	Pair of Aces	£16.23		£17.23

 

grantorino

I think this is a clear fold pre oop
Getting it in on flop cant be bad, I'd consider a flat IP if you are SURE he has an overpair

AMYBR

I totally disagree.  Its a hand that will become very profitable in deepstack cash games.  Board comes dry you lose nothing beyond the furthar 6BB's you were asked for - 60p into 1.35 is fine also.

Your 66% favourite to win on flop, as long as opponent isnt holding two big clubs.  If your not playing scared you should always be happy to get your stack in on the flop.  Your never check folding the flop, nor bet folding.  You dont want to have a tricky decision if the turn blanks.  I think you play it fine.  I probably lead out though.

N1CK

this is far from deep stack

AcidMan27

Unlucky on this hand Hamster, I was half expecting a club to fall. When you shoved I thought you're either on a flush draw, got kings or you've hit a set.

grantorino

In Response to Re: Thoughts on how i played flush/straight draw on the flop:

I totally disagree.  Its a hand that will become very profitable in deepstack cash games.  Board comes dry you lose nothing beyond the furthar 6BB's you were asked for - 60p into 1.35 is fine also. Your 66% favourite to win on flop, as long as opponent isnt holding two big clubs.  If your not playing scared you should always be happy to get your stack in on the flop.  Your never check folding the flop, nor bet folding.  You dont want to have a tricky decision if the turn blanks.  I think you play it fine.  I probably lead out though.
Posted by AMYBR

They are not deep, in fact they have less than 100BB

how are we a 66% favourite?

If I call pre I check/shove the flop, but if he always has an overpair which is the read we are given he is never folding and we get to be a slight favourite in a flip. This is after hitting a great flop, we throw away the 6BBs on most flops 

iBLUFF

like i said to you yesterday mate, if your going to play it pre flop (not a bad call pre imo) then you have to be willing to put every penny in on this flop you have a massive draw and just unlucky not to hit one of them.

AMYBR

I didnt say they were sat deep, It was a generic comment.  Whether its deep or not doesnt change a thing.  This would be exactly the kind of match up you'd want post in a deep stack cash game, this hand being viable and valuable.  The fact that in this instance he's only sat with 80 BB's makes it even easier.

How is it 66% favourite?  nine clubs three 7's three Q's = 15 outs at the flop for the nut hand.  Unless opponent is holding two big clubs (or the very unlikely QK) which i did say origonally.

15 x 2.2 x 2 = 66% Its not difficult.


I like the opening raise also, disguises the intrinsic potential of your hand.  I definately dont think you should be folding to the cheap raise.  Its an easy fold on the flop on a lot of boards.  But you get the right one and your hand potential is strong.  I dont get some of you overly critical guys. Do you just sit around waiting for A's all day?

grantorino

In Response to Re: Thoughts on how i played flush/straight draw on the flop:

I didnt say they were sat deep, It was a generic comment.  Whether its deep or not doesnt change a thing.  This would be exactly the kind of match up you'd want post in a deep stack cash game, this hand being viable and valuable.  The fact that in this instance he's only sat with 80 BB's makes it even easier. How is it 66% favourite?  nine clubs three 7's three Q's = 15 outs at the flop for the nut hand.  Unless opponent is holding two big clubs (or the very unlikely QK) which i did say origonally. 15 x 2.2 x 2 = 66% Its not difficult. I like the opening raise also, disguises the intrinsic potential of your hand.  I definately dont think you should be folding to the cheap raise.  Its an easy fold on the flop on a lot of boards.  But you get the right one and your hand potential is strong.  I dont get some of you overly critical guys. Do you just sit around waiting for A's all day?
Posted by AMYBR

Being deep does make a difference , I would like the call much better if we were deep

We are 51% against QQ+ on that board, a little better if you take out QQ as it blocks some of our outs. That calc you have is incorrect I think, I think its outs by 4 on flop and I think you need to even reduce that when out s go over 9 or something, not really sure

Its not about being overcritical, its not about being nitty its about playing hands in a +EV way. Im certainly pretty unsure that calling a 3bet shallow OOP with suited connectors is going to be profitable, especially when if we flop a monster draw our fold equity is likely to be low

AMYBR

I hear what your saying but its ambitious to shave off 15% in the event that our opponent is holding one particular hand, Q's.  I'd be far more concerned about two bigger clubs.  If opponent had made it £1.3 - £1.6 pre then yes i would also advocate the fold.  But based on the price offered, for me, its going to always be a call, happily folding most flops.

Yes, fold equity is going to low post.  But with stack sizes being what they are this would always seem like a good opportunity to double through.  But as I've said, I'm a bigtime online cash looser, so your most likely right

hamster880

Hi Acidman


I was only a marginal favourite.. so not that unlucky... the situation reversed though would you have shoved too or do you would call your bet

AcidMan27

Tbh i'm a nit so don't shove there in that situation. I'd certainly lead out or check call on the flop though.

hamster880

Hi i was thinking off doing that, but if a club or one of the straight cards didnt come out then my hand would lose serious value. I suppose though i would have had the option to not lose my whole stack instead lol... Anyway wp in the hand

LOL_RAISE

amybr we are just over 50% equity with 15 clean outs,

the x4 rule doesnt work when you have more than 10 outs

silentbob

In Response to Re: Thoughts on how i played flush/straight draw on the flop:

amybr we are just over 50% equity with 15 clean outs, the x4 rule doesnt work when you have more than 10 outs
Posted by LOL_RAISE

Could you explain that for me please LOL? I'm not great at working out odds & percentages at the best of times! I always thought your outs were x4 on the flop regardless of how many you have.

Thanks in advance

LOL_RAISE

87cc on 9cTc4h vs AhAs

we have 15 clean outs, and there are 7 known cards and 45 unknown

the total %age we have of winning the hand(im going to assume that when we hit we always win for simplicity)

*we hit on the turn and miss the river*  15/45*30/44 = 0.227
*we miss on the turn and hit the river*   30/45*15/44 = 0.227
*we hit on both the turn and river*         15/45*14/44 = 0.106

total = 0.56   56%

pokerstove has it at 56.2% which is down to us hitting twopair/trips  slightly more often than villain boating up i guess.

the x4 is really more of a rough estimate. i believe in HoH he says that when you get to 10+ outs you should take 5 off the final result or something like that but its years since i read them

silentbob

Thanks LOL. Think I should probably dig out my HoH & have a re-read