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November Nine - who's your money on?

Sky_DaveSky_Dave
edited September 2009 in Poker Chat
In Response to November Nine - who's your money on?:
After having a mini-rant on how James Akenhead is definitely winning the WSOP Main Event come November, I had a little wander over to SkyBet.com to see if they had a market on it. Deep joy - they do! Moon D (58,930,000) 3/1    Buchman E (34,800,000) 7/2    Begleiter S (29,885,000) 6/1    Shulman J (19,580,000) 6/1    Ivey P (9,765,000) 6/1 Schaffel K (12,390,000) 10/1 Cada J (13,215,000) 12/1 Akenhead J (6,800,000) 12/1 Saout A (9,500,000) 16/1 So, who is your money on? I think I will have a couple of quid on Akenhead, with Buchman as my insurance bet, Ivey at 6/1 has got to be considered decent value though, or not?
Posted by Sky_Dave
Ivey to win IMO. I don't think that Darvin Moon will be able to keep running like God come November.

If not Ivey then it will be one of the two big stacks - Buchman or Begleiter.

Akenhead just doesn't have enough chips.

Dave
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Comments

  • Sky_DaveSky_Dave
    edited September 2009
    After having a mini-rant on how James Akenhead is definitely winning the WSOP Main Event come November, I had a little wander over to SkyBet.com to see if they had a market on it. Deep joy - they do!

    Moon D (58,930,000) 3/1   
    Buchman E (34,800,000) 7/2   
    Begleiter S (29,885,000) 6/1   
    Shulman J (19,580,000) 6/1   
    Ivey P (9,765,000) 6/1
    Schaffel K (12,390,000) 10/1
    Cada J (13,215,000) 12/1
    Akenhead J (6,800,000) 12/1
    Saout A (9,500,000) 16/1

    So, who is your money on? I think I will have a couple of quid on Akenhead, with Buchman as my insurance bet, Ivey at 6/1 has got to be considered decent value though, or not?

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  • Sky_DaveSky_Dave
    edited September 2009
    You say that but one double up and our man is in contention. Ivey went so far to say he found Akenhead the trickiest player at the table in an interview. That's as close as you're ever going to get of Phil Ivey saying "that dude is good". 

    Gotta believe in the dream, Grim! :)
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  • Taller_GuyTaller_Guy
    edited September 2009
    I like the idea of Akenhead winning it, if only because he's a Brit and we haven't won the thing for twenty years.  I have a sneaking feeling that Shulman will take it, though.  As the rank outsider, Saout could be worth a flutter.  He has that Gallic coolness about him that will serve him well.

    Anyway, they'd be my top three.  They'll probably now lose their chips quicker than a drunk outside a fish shop!
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  • Grimstar30Grimstar30
    edited September 2009
    In Response to Re: November Nine - who's your money on?:
    You say that but one double up and our man is in contention. Ivey went so far to say he found Akenhead the trickiest player at the table in an interview. That's as close as you're ever going to get of Phil Ivey saying "that dude is good".  Gotta believe in the dream, Grim! :)
    Posted by Sky_Dave
    Yeah thought about the double up point after I wrote my entry lol
    OK ok how about Ivey v. Akenhead HU now that would be titanic.
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  • scrumdownscrumdown
    edited September 2009
    hi  grimstar  my  money  on  phil  ivey  like to see akenhead  win  it  think  ivry  skill and   experience   win him it
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  • Sky_DaveSky_Dave
    edited September 2009
    How about Ivey vs. Moon HU, Moon with a 9:1 chip lead? That would get the whole 'is poker a game of skill' debate right back out of the bag.

    Provided he had over 50BBs, my money would be on Ivey. If he's there long enough to make the last three, his read will be so good he'll be able to tell them what they'll have for breakfast the next morning.

    Dave - pedaling yet more controversial poker views ;)
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  • Sky_DaveSky_Dave
    edited September 2009
    In Response to Re: November Nine - who's your money on?:
    hi  grimstar  my  money  on  phil  ivey  like to see akenhead  win  it  think  ivry  skill and   experience   win him it
    Posted by scrumdown
    Good shout on the experience, and for that reason I think Jeff Shulman is worth a bit of consideration. I personally hope he doesn't win it, just because I'd hate to see him back-pedal on that 'I'll dump the bracelet in the bin' spiel he came out with.
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  • PiAnOpLaYaPiAnOpLaYa
    edited September 2009
    what are hte blinds and antes wen they start again?
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  • Sky_DaveSky_Dave
    edited September 2009
    In Response to Re: November Nine - who's your money on?:
    what are hte blinds and antes wen they start again?
    Posted by PiAnOpLaYa
    I think they're 120k/240k with an ante of 30k, but don't quote me on that... am 90% sure.
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  • RickyVillaRickyVilla
    edited September 2009

    Ivey is overpriced at 6/1 imo great value.

    What are the blind levels when they resume?

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  • Sky_DaveSky_Dave
    edited September 2009
    Yeah, 6/1 looks interesting - it's better value than Betfair, and that's rare for a fixed-odds firm. Then again, he has got to get all of the chips and a lot of those are elsewhere right now. While 6/1 is longer, is it *actually* value? Hmm...
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  • RickyVillaRickyVilla
    edited September 2009
    In Response to Re: November Nine - who's your money on?:
    Yeah, 6/1 looks interesting - it's better value than Betfair, and that's rare for a fixed-odds firm. Then again, he has got to get all of the chips and a lot of those are elsewhere right now. While 6/1 is longer, is it *actually* value? Hmm...
    Posted by Sky_Dave

    I know he doesn't have many chips right now but he is never a 6/1 shot imo. According to Neil Channing he should be no better than a 6/4 shot in this field.
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  • RickyVillaRickyVilla
    edited September 2009
    Although to be fair Dave its pretty hard to determine what odds Ivey should be with the amount of luck involved in winning.
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  • JingleMaJingleMa
    edited September 2009

    P H I L  I V E Y .

    And at 6/1, yes please!

    He'll prob go busto 1st hand now.
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  • Chompy_imoChompy_imo
    edited September 2009
    6-1 Phil Ivey is NOT value. Please stop over-estimating the amount of skill involved at a final table imo.
    I can't have Darvin Moon winning it from what I've heard but it's far more likely to fall to the second or third stack.
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  • JingleMaJingleMa
    edited September 2009

    That's the thing chompy, if its all luck then the person with the most skill is still the most likely, no?

    That's not saying Ivey is guaranteed by any means, just the most likely.

    His skill might mean that he only has 10% more chance than the others, but that's still a slight edge the others don't have.
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  • MereNoviceMereNovice
    edited September 2009
    If it's "all luck", then the relative chances are directly proportional to the stack sizes so Ivey has very little chance.
    If he has a 10% edge (which may be a reasonable assessment) then the stack sizes are still the most important factor because there is such a difference in the stack sizes.
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  • daveydaveydaveydavey
    edited September 2009
    Have to think all the coaching players will have had/done will have been on busting Phil Ivey, might be a good thing for Phil.
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  • webby234webby234
    edited September 2009
    i would never back against phil ivey, the guy is a genius and will take some beating imo

    webby
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  • J-HartiganJ-Hartigan
    edited September 2009
    In Response to Re: November Nine - who's your money on?:
    6-1 Phil Ivey is NOT value. Please stop over-estimating the amount of skill involved at a final table imo. I can't have Darvin Moon winning it from what I've heard but it's far more likely to fall to the second or third stack.
    Posted by Chompy_imo
    I'm with Chompy.  I've stopped betting on final tables of major tournaments.  Too much variance!

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  • BigBlusterBigBluster
    edited September 2009

    In betting terms, Ivey is a complete rip-off at 6/1. He's not up against a table of mugs here, he's playing guys of similar skill but giving them 2,3 or even 6 times chip advantage. Is he 6 times as good as the guy he's given a 6x lead to?

    Saout has roughly the same chip stack, about 5% of the total chips and is 16/1. Ivey should be similarly priced. Chip stack is the 2nd most important factor at this stage, with luck being the primary factor.

    If I can, I'll lay Ivey at 6/1.

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