Name your value bet

TommyD

No reads on the villain.  Been sat for less than a dozen hands or so.  What would you value bet here and why?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
ezryder	Small blind		£0.50	£0.50	£153.24
x	Big blind		£1.00	£1.50	£176.42
	Your hole cards	A J
TommyD	Raise		£3.00	£4.50	£129.80
EVILEDNA	Fold
5toneFace	Fold
ezryder	Fold
x	Call		£2.00	£6.50	£174.42
Flop
		4 K Q
x	Check
TommyD	Check
Turn
		10
x	Check
TommyD	Bet		£5.00	£11.50	£124.80
x	Call		£5.00	£16.50	£169.42
River
		9
x	Bet		£16.50	£33.00	£152.92
TommyD	?

CrazyBen23

Shove, they'll prob call if they have a jack and fold to whatever you raise without one so go for max value

scotty77

reg like 45

random shove

DOHHHHHHH

I'd go just above a min raise and let him sp/azz shove.

splashies

In Response to Re: Name your value bet:

Shove, they'll prob call if they have a jack and fold to whatever you raise without one so go for max value
Posted by CrazyBen23

+1. They are repping the jack so will probably call a shove if they do have it. If they are bluffing then they won't call any raise.

LOL_RAISE

id be cbetting this flop almost always

about bet sizing..what scotty said

rancid

65  - he may shove on you

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Name your value bet:

id be cbetting this flop almost always about bet sizing..what scotty said
Posted by LOL_RAISE

Doesn't K, Q x with a fd hit his calling range pre v hard?

I can't c bet these boards at my level they don't fold enough.

TommyD

In Response to Re: Name your value bet:

In Response to Re: Name your value bet : Doesn't K, Q x with a fd hit his calling range pre v hard? I can't c bet these boards at my level they don't fold enough.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

This

Well open to a c/r here with made hands, draws and air.  Also balancing, got to check my air sometimes otherwise it all goes messy.

BTW, I shoved.

LOL_RAISE

In Response to Re: Name your value bet:

In Response to Re: Name your value bet : Doesn't K, Q x with a fd hit his calling range pre v hard? I can't c bet these boards at my level they don't fold enough.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

how does it hit his calling range v hard? hes got 1 set & KQ for strong made hands. 1 set & KQ is 12combos which is just under 1% of total hands. lets say he defends 10% which is pretty nitty, then  hes only ever going to have a strong hand ~10% of the time, hes going to fold flop with all underpairs, peel flop fold turn with Qx. and him bluff raising this board is really bad because big cards = stronger pfr range

DOHHHHHHH

TJ, TQ, TK, QT, QJ, Q9, KJ, KQ K9 AQ all heart/heart hands.

... and 1 set 

edd-it - QT and TQ r 2 diff hands I was on a rolllll

TommyD

Anyways, if I decide to I can delay C-Bet a lot of turns even if he leads the turn, repping extreme strength and add a second barrel on most rivers if needed.  I have the early aggression and position.

YOUNG_GUN

i bet 40 hope he jams, but think he'll only call

LOL_RAISE

In Response to Re: Name your value bet:

TJ, TQ, TK, QT, QJ, Q9, KJ, KQ K9 AQ all heart/heart hands. ... and 1 set  edd-it - QT and TQ r 2 diff hands I was on a rolllll
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

so when a complete unknown with 100bb is at table u think they defend their BB with all these hands?
we beat TJ TK & heart draws

N1CK

In Response to Re: Name your value bet:

In Response to Re: Name your value bet : so when a complete unknown with 100bb is at table u think they defend their BB with all these hands? we beat TJ TK & heart draws
Posted by LOL_RAISE

we only have a gutter+over and hands that call have us beat or good equity, i dont mind either tbf

TommyD

Ok let's tie this hand up.

I thought the way he played it he had turned a Jack face up.  I made the over bet shove, he called fairly quickly with KJo for the worse straight.  FWIW I think he was preparing a C/R on the flop.

Putting myself in the villian's shoes, if they had a set/two pair hand is this a good river bet/fold spot?  In which case they will fold to any decent bet and certainly the shove but may get curious for a bet a little better than a click back.  My argument is if I always shove here am I losing value by not getting the click back calls from worse than straights?  The lower straight may still shove but of course I'm giving them a chance to get off the hook cheaply.

DeucesLive

I think when you raise in this hand you almost 100% telegraph you have a jack in your hand- his bet is certainly screaming it, so to reraise there with less than a jack is so risky. If he has any less than a straight it's an incredibly difficult call. However, if he has the jack and you make a standard v-bet, he will most likely call, figuring there's no way he's doing better than splitting and shoving is only likely to make the rake the winner. Not to mention the outside chance you have the nut straight.

I love the shove, it's very, very difficult to fold a jack here and if he has less than that, you probably don't get paid off anyway. He has the straight way more often than he has anything else anyway, good move IMO.