Flopped a monster- how would you play it, and what to bet on river?

DeucesLive

So, villain is Greg, a notorious nit. Calling the 3 bet pre clearly indicates he has something big, and he is capable of slowplaying aces/kings, so my current hand range on him is JJ-AA (obviously AA is a tad unlikely) and AK/AQ (I think I have a laggy enough rep for him to call a 3-bet profitably with AQ here).

Flop is enormous for me- if he has KK/JJ I've lost value, if he has QQ all the money is basically heading to the middle whatever I do. Having top set made it very difficult for Greg to have a big enough part of the board to play back, so first decision- check calling I hoped would under-rep my hand, and perhaps look like KK. 

On the turn, I again wanted it to look quite weak, and leave it to Greg to carry on the betting- but he checks behind, ruining that plan. Should perhaps bet here?

With all that, what's the best bet on river for value? If I check, there is a huge chance now that he checks behind- I feel like he has KK/JJ here and is highly unlikely to put more money in, so I have to bet. How would you play this differently?

layerActionCardsAmountPotBalancehowiecarrSmall blind £0.10£0.10£16.44DeucesLiveBig blind £0.20£0.30£39.80 Your hole cardsAA   EvsyCall £0.20£0.50£11.90AmbassadorFold    CrazyBen23Fold    GREGHOGGRaise £1.00£1.50£67.48howiecarrFold    DeucesLiveRaise £2.60£4.10£37.20EvsyFold    GREGHOGGCall £1.80£5.90£65.68Flop  6QA   DeucesLiveCheck    GREGHOGGBet £2.95£8.85£62.73DeucesLiveCall £2.95£11.80£34.25Turn  9   DeucesLiveCheck    GREGHOGGCheck    River  8   DeucesLiveBet ????

GREGHOGG

I think you should bet the flop, bet the turn, bet the river, and stack me cos im a fish

come on where are the serious replies pls? I want to post my hand, but i am waiting patiently innit

MattBates

Given you both checked on the turn I would be tempted by a large bet on the river made to look like a steal, possibly over the pot, maybe like £13. The hope would be Greg might may a hero call with KK or call thinking he was good with a big ace.

SILEEK

You say he is a nit, and he says he is a fish.
So, he probably calls your 3 bet pre with 10-J suited, and
on sight of the flop, has chased a straight down to the river :-)

MattBates

In Response to Flopped a monster- how would you play it, and what to bet on river?:

I think you should bet the flop, bet the turn, bet the river, and stack me cos im a fish come on where are the serious replies pls? I want to post my hand, but i am waiting patiently innit
Posted by GREGHOGG

Gregg, can you let us know what you had please!

GREGHOGG

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancehowiecarr Small blind  £0.10 £0.10 £16.44 DeucesLive Big blind  £0.20 £0.30 £39.80   Your hole cards A K       Evsy Call  £0.20 £0.50 £11.90 Ambassador Fold     CrazyBen23 Fold     GREGHOGG Raise  £1.00 £1.50 £67.48 howiecarr Fold     DeucesLive Raise  £2.60 £4.10 £37.20 Evsy Fold     GREGHOGG Call  £1.80 £5.90 £65.68 Flop    6 Q A       DeucesLive Check     GREGHOGG Bet  £2.95 £8.85 £62.73 DeucesLive Call  £2.95 £11.80 £34.25 Turn    9       DeucesLive Check     GREGHOGG Check     River    8       DeucesLive Bet  £10.40 £22.20 £23.85 GREGHOGG Fold     DeucesLive Muck     DeucesLive Win  £11.21  £35.06 DeucesLive Return  £10.40 £0.59 £45.46

grantorino

you are 200bb deep bet flop ffs,as played bet 9 on river

greg if you bet flop, bet turn I hate river fold unless deuces is an ubernit