Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it

Luke_Jones

  i have 10 spades 9 dimonds
flop is Q hearts J hearts 8clubs
2 players go allin on flop.and flip there cards forgetting iam in the hand
one player has Q 8
the other has k 10 of hearts
...there is £40 in the middle
and they have both pushed £230 each
what would u do

iBLUFF

In Response to Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:

  i have 10 spades 9 dimonds flop is Q hearts J hearts 8clubs 2 players go allin on flop.and flip there cards forgetting iam in the hand one player has Q 8 the other has k 10 of hearts ... there is £40 in the middle and they have both pushed £230 each what would u do
Posted by Luke_Jones

i would fold but surely the hand would be void ?

unknown_username

If i have the maths right, you fold.

iBLUFF

In Response to Re: Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:

If i have the maths right, you fold.
Posted by DrSharp

yeh i think you do hes not even a 50/50 hes less than that (i think) lol

DeucesLive

WTFFFFF 

come on guys, you should know better than that!!

You have the nuts on the board in holdem=SNAP CALL ANY BET

It doesn't matter WHAT the action is, unless someone else turns over the nuts with redraw to better nuts, you HAVE to play! You're not a 50/50 to win, but you're not on a 50/50 money split- you're calling ~230 to win 460, and you are better than 33%. Off the top of my head, one player has 4 outs, the other has 12, so you're around 40% to win? Not sure on the absolute %s off the top of my head, think you're just over 40%.

40%>33%. CALL.

 

rancid

lol emmmm

SNAP SNAP SNAP

What more do you want lol you have flopped the nutz

MP33

Its a shove and look away as long as you are playing within your BR. 

like deuces said - your about 40% but your getting paid 2/1

Ps - what happened? 

RAB642

In Response to Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:

  i have 10 spades 9 dimonds flop is Q hearts J hearts 8clubs 2 players go allin on flop.and flip there cards forgetting iam in the hand one player has Q 8 the other has k 10 of hearts ... there is £40 in the middle and they have both pushed £230 each what would u do
Posted by Luke_Jones

snap call you are there to win, you already have the hand and they need to hit, you will win more than lose in this spot

unknown_username

In Response to Re: Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:

Its a shove and look away as long as you are playing within your BR.  like deuces said - your about 40% but your getting paid 2/1 Ps - what happened? 
Posted by MP33

Maths say your 40% so i originally said fold. MP33 rightly says the odds suggest you call.

rancid

In Response to Re: Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:

In Response to Re: Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it : Maths say your 40% so i originally said fold. MP33 rightly says the odds suggest you call.
Posted by DrSharp

You have to dodge some cards but hey if anyone folds in this spot then maybe they should stop playing poker
The point is no one will ever fold this hand in this spot so really forget the odds/maths in hindsight.
You have the nutz so why the hell will anyone fold

grantorino

lol at folding the nuts

 you dont need to be 50/50, if you want to fold here give up poker imo

Luke_Jones

well no matter how much i worked it out i hated it but no way was i folding this i came 3rd in the hand flush was made on the turn Q8 made full house on river. looking it over ok i have THE NUTS on the flop but against the     2 pair and the straight flush draw if this hand was played 100 times i would like to see how many time's you would win

salad24

What happened? I am assuming you folded?

salad24

What happened? I am assuming you folded?

DeucesLive

In Response to Re: Nut's on the flop and i STILL dont like it:

well no matter how much i worked it out i hated it but no way was i folding this i came 3rd in the hand flush was made on the turn Q8 made full house on river. looking it over ok i have THE NUTS on the flop but against the     2 pair and the straight flush draw if this hand was played 100 times i would like to see how many time's you would win
Posted by Luke_Jones

that's why it's a mathematical % based decision. You're not a favourite to win it, but put it this way- you pay £230 every hand (that's an outlay of £23000 over 100 identical hands). Every time you lose, you lose that £230. Every time you win, you gain £690 (there's a little dead money involved too which makes it even more lucrative, but you can discard that for this purpose).

40% means simply that- 40% of the time you'll win. 60% of the time you lose. So 40 times in 100 you win £690, 60 times in 100 you win nothing. Your outlay over 100 hands is £23000, and your expected return over 100 hands is £27600. That makes it what's called a +EV spot- which means calling will make you money long term, even though you're technically not a favourite to win the hand.

Well done for making the call, and in future- always make the same play. Do that every time and you'll be successful in that spot at least.