Strange spot in satellite...

DeucesLive

30 left, 17 seats. Starting stacks are 2500, 11k at 300/600 should be plenty to coast to a seat barring a catastrophe, so settled in to just fold my way through. Then this happened, and I'm honestly curious what people would do here. Villain hadn't been super aggro then suddenly did this out of nowhere- obviously I'm ahead so that's no issue, but he's one of only 2/3 people in the satellite that have me covered- whatever he has (unless I'm super lucky and he has AK, or any ace/king combo for that matter) is probably 15/20% against me. Is there actually any need to call this here?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
talllady01	Small blind		300.00	300.00	2120.00
DeucesLive	Big blind		600.00	900.00	11038.74
	Your hole cards	A A
WHITEADDER	All-in		15081.26	15981.26	0.00
Bridge790	Fold
HIBBIE22	Fold
talllady01	Fold
DeucesLive	????

iBLUFF

In Response to Strange spot in satellite...:

30 left, 17 seats. Starting stacks are 2500, 11k at 300/600 should be plenty to coast to a seat barring a catastrophe, so settled in to just fold my way through. Then this happened, and I'm honestly curious what people would do here. Villain hadn't been super aggro then suddenly did this out of nowhere- obviously I'm ahead so that's no issue, but he's one of only 2/3 people in the satellite that have me covered- whatever he has (unless I'm super lucky and he has AK, or any ace/king combo for that matter) is probably 15/20% against me. Is there actually any need to call this here? Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance talllady01 Small blind   300.00 300.00 2120.00 DeucesLive Big blind   600.00 900.00 11038.74   Your hole cards A A       WHITEADDER All-in   15081.26 15981.26 0.00 Bridge790 Fold         HIBBIE22 Fold         talllady01 Fold         DeucesLive ????  
Posted by DeucesLive

meh.. i call here but i dont like it even though we have aces , as you say you can coast to the seat and theres always a chance he binks on us..

grantorino

mmm, no expert on sattellites but is 18BB really enough to coast to money with 13 players still to bust without risking your chips?. If your really sure I suppose you could fold, if there's any doubt I call. I never play sats so could be way off

DeucesLive

Well, the blind structure is lightning fast (I suppose saying I was sat 3rd of 30 would be relevant- should have mentioned that).

People tend to blind out/be forced to shove very quickly, so 18bbs should probably have been enough, yes.I would have expected (assuming my blind got raised every orbit- unlikely) to finish with some 6-7k or so still. Of course, it doesn't mean it's an absolute guarantee.

Dudeskin8

Never play satelites but I'd personally feel so sick if I folded here and still didn't get a seat, plus folding Aces preflop is like against the law right ?

N1CK

there is only one guarantee in life and you folding your way to a seat here is not it, i would call turn off the computer and turn it back on in the morning to see if im good

DeucesLive

Obviously it's not a guarantee. So, a better question is- let's assume I'm 85% against his range- probably not a million miles off the mark?
Is my chance of cashing (if I fold) better than 85%? Because obviously if I call and win, that IS as good a guarantee as you can get in poker- I can sit away from the computer and get a seat 99.999% of the time. But if I fold this, I'm not sure my chance of getting a seat is less than 85%, more like 90%- it'd take a pretty major slice of bad luck to not get through here.

Fwiw, since the result is kind of immaterial to the point at hand anyway, I called. Quads are always nice, of course. I didn't slowroll him TOO badly either, though I did take 5-10 seconds to make up my mind.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
talllady01	Small blind		300.00	300.00	2120.00
DeucesLive	Big blind		600.00	900.00	11038.74
	Your hole cards	A A
WHITEADDER	All-in		15081.26	15981.26	0.00
Bridge790	Fold
HIBBIE22	Fold
talllady01	Fold
DeucesLive	All-in		11038.74	27020.00	0.00
WHITEADDER	Unmatched bet		3442.52	23577.48	3442.52
DeucesLive	Show	A A
WHITEADDER	Show	J J
Flop
		A 10 6
Turn
		A
River
		5
DeucesLive	Win	Four Aces	23577.48		23577.48

N1CK

not even a sweat, its not a slowroll as such...worth thinking about it for 2 secs

Mohican

With 18bb's and 13 left to go, this is an insta call. Wouldn't even have had time to blink before I've got my chips over the line.

DeucesLive

In Response to Re: Strange spot in satellite...:

With 18bb's and 13 left to go, this is an insta call. Wouldn't even have had time to blink before I've got my chips over the line.
Posted by Mohican

why? Just because my blinds are relatively low, in relation to the field it's huge. Probably ~10 players are sat around the 1-3bb mark, and in serious danger, 18bbs in a fast satellite structure at this stage is enormous. 

If someone I have covered makes this play, obviously I snap it off- still more risk than I'd like, but at least then if I do get a bad beat I've got a chance to claw back up. I couldn't block the feeling that even with AA, this was just a risk that wasn't necessary- I'd already done the hard work getting my stack to where it was, with the bubble being played out over 3 tables I should be able to timewaste my way to the finish line.

pod1

i agree with nick, its the law!!!!