Too Agro too early Vs Chip Leader?

mattless · May 2011

Preflop - Ok raise, I'd just make it 3x but that cus im lazy.

Flop - Very good for you, shove is aggro but seems right play to me.

mattless · May 2011

Played this hand last night in Primo. Sitting on above average chips I get in situation below with Chip Leader. I notice he went on to win tourney, which is immaterial to questions, but anyway. He has just moved to table but has been involved in more than 1/2 pots so far, seems to be pressuring shorter stacks, but nothing has gone to showdown so don't know how light he is doing this. It is a blind on blind which always complicates things as I don't believe his raises hence my all in.

1) Pre I think raise is fine, but should I be folding or 4 betting to Re-raise.
2) On flop I make decision based on the fact I have a feeling he would make this move without tptk and even if he has King, a 10 or club should get me there, before I saw his hand there is a chance that an Ace or Queen are also good

Understand result is immaterial (kinda) but is this fair enough?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
mattless	Small blind		50.00	50.00	6130.00
Mcwood	Big blind		100.00	150.00	11353.75
	Your hole cards	Q A
RADAGAST	Fold
Stewart1	Fold
KickaStink	Fold
flyer169	Fold
mattless	Raise		250.00	400.00	5880.00
Mcwood	Raise		800.00	1200.00	10553.75
mattless	Call		600.00	1800.00	5280.00
Flop
		J 8 K
mattless	Check
Mcwood	Bet		1800.00	3600.00	8753.75
mattless	All-in		5280.00	8880.00	0.00
Mcwood	Call		3480.00	12360.00	5273.75
mattless	Show	Q A
Mcwood	Show	K A
Turn
		5
River
		9
Mcwood	Win	Pair of Kings	12360.00		17633.75

DeucesLive · May 2011

I like the 2.5x raise, but I think in the sb/bb confrontation I'd normally err towards 3x to compensate for weak position.

I know the school of thought not to vary your raise size apart from complete randomisation, but changing your sizing based on your position in the hand doesn't give away anything about the strength of your hand- it's just a standard defence against your weaker position postflop. Smaller raises in cutoff+button, larger raises when you're out of position to try and price people out from playing back at you. Not sure whether top players would agree or not, but that's something I like to think about.

When he 3bets you, again- position becomes a problem here. If you call, you are going to be in a tough spot postflop mostly- on the upside, if you hit the flop you can probably get more chips out of him, but if you miss it you'll either be betting into the dark or giving up. So 4bet shoving is a consideration, gets rid of most of his hands he plays back at you with. I think AQ is too strong to just give up on preflop, and the shove is a little too risky with your chipstacks, so call is my favourite option there.

On the flop, checking is fine- he's got the betting lead, so let him take it. That's a great flop for you- NFD+gutshot- and he doesn't have to have a king by any means, he could have AQ/AJ/A10 in which case you either have live outs, or are even ahead- he could have a smaller pair, anything. Could also have K10, leaving your ace as an out. When you get that bet, I like the jam- folds out a lot of those hands, if he does have a piece and calls- you're far from drawing dead with your NFD.

Also in the consideration is the fact you've seen he's been raising more than his share- everything about the preflop and flop action should lead you to the conclusion he definitely doesn't have to have TPTK- which you saw. If he's made a move with 56os he makes that same bet on the flop.

Basically, I like everything about how you played it- nice and aggressive, you haven't got nearly enough chips to be in coast mode, and if you double here you're a real threat and can bully people around to amass a nice chipstack to take into the latter stages. Ul to run into such a big hand ofc, but definitely would play it the same way again if you have to!

CrazyBen23 · May 2011

4bet or fold pre

LOL_RAISE · May 2011

he did 3x it preflop its 250+ the 50sb he has already in.
postflop is pretty straightforward imo. honestly idk what i would do preflop when he 3bets to that size, too deep to jam over only 1 or 2 orbits worth of reads i would think, flatting isnt super fun but folding AQ BvB seems super weak

grantorino · May 2011

pre it sucks when he 3bets, 4betting is meh this deep, folding seems weak bvb, calling oop doesnt appeal. What was your plan when you flatted pre?

Personally I prob fold, weak as it is. I also prefer 4betting to calling, if you miss its going to be pretty tough oop without reads and we can still valuetown oureselves when we hit Q hi flops etc v top of his range

Post I dont think you can do anything else, I'm not that delighted though, I doubt he b/f many hands on this board

rusty762 · May 2011

In Response to Too Agro too early Vs Chip Leader?:Yes, I think too early, too aggro v chip leader. Calling a hefty 3 bet oop with AQo usually ends in misery, and alot of chips stacking off when the board hits you and the villain the way it did!.
I know you read him as the table captain, but big hands do hit the BB, and AK was certainly a possibility, along with a few others that have you crushed.
Personally I would fold AQo to a big 3 bet oop. I know you read him as a bit of a table bully, but at this stage of the tourney you have time and over 60 bbs on your side. You cannot win a primo on level 2.

mattless · May 2011

Big decision was pre for me, was leaning toward fold more than 4 bet, but as replies have suggested, just felt weak. Plan on flop was to lead out but fold to re-raise on pretty much any board. All clubs just seemed perfect for c/r.

Once we get to flop I can't see any other way to play it. Is there another way I can't see? I still feel that he folds all pairs less than 88 or even Ax hands including A8 but is it too early for such a big semi bluff?

DeucesLive · May 2011

Pre is a nightmare. Ideally, you want to see him flat or fold, obviously- so you should have a plan for how to respond if he does come back over the top. What other options are there- flat the bb? If he then raises, you either play small ball and flat, which I think is too weak with AQ, or reraise him- then essentially turning AQ into a bluff, since you have to fold to a 4bet. So, I think overall the way you've played it is best- folding AQ to a single 3bet from the bb is super weak, since all you're truly scared of is 4 hands. True, you're oop postflop, but there's enough board textures to keep you interested.

After you raise, I think call>fold=4bet. Both folding and 4betting are bad ideas, and depending on what day it is I might say folding or 4betting is a better/worse option. Folding may edge

To Rusty, firstly this isn't level 2 of primo, it's around lv 6 or 7 I think, which is the time you need to get active and start accumulating chips to win. I hear what you're saying about plenty of bbs behind, but if you want to win, you need a chipstack to play with or an absolute stack of luck in the latter stages.

Winning tournaments is all about flips, and if you always have a stack that means 1 lost flip kills you, you're in trouble. If you can lose a flip and still have chips left, you're in the perfect position (case in point- villain in this hand won what could loosely be called a 'flip', would have had a playable stack if he lost, actually won it and went on to win the whole tournament). If this flip goes the other way, Mattless virtually swaps seats with the chipleader. This is as good a spot as any to get your chips in, you're unlucky to be against one of the few hands truly dominating you and even then- you still had a plenty strong chance to hit. I think every decision was made as optimally as possible here.

rancid · May 2011

I can't see anything wroung here with what you have done, blind on blind you have AQ just unlucky he got AK.

You get a great flop 13 good outs, backdoor possible outs so you shove it up him.
Shame he got a hand to call with ;_(

Unlucky

If you want to be a nit then just fold pre to his 3 bet.
If you 4 bet he will shove on you anyway with AK :S

The_Don90 · May 2011

im +1 ing everything Deuceslive has said here.

grantorino · May 2011

deuces, what are all there flops we can show interest in, and how do you intend to play them? I doubt we are always ahead on these flops either, I think readless oop we actually have pretty big rio.

Why are folding and 4betting bad ideas? I especially cant see how folding is that bad pre here, I'm open to other options being better.

op, has villain 3bet before?

DeucesLive · May 2011

folding AQ BvB is too passive I think and not going to win you tournaments, but that's just my opinion.

What I like to do in this spot, since the whole AK thing really taints your view on it since that's the hand you're playing against, is imagine what happens in this spot with AJ (the best hand that we're ahead of)? Will the villain 3bet with AJ- probably, yes. Will he call a 4bet shove? Relatively unlikely. So with that in mind, 4betting is only going to fold out hands we beat, we get action from QQ/KK/AA/AK. Possibly you'll get action from some smaller pairs. That's too aggro for me, since all the hands we get action from have us crushed, unless he calls with J's or 10's, and you're still behind then.

If the board comes down ace high, then you have to stack off IMO. You've gone ahead of his entire range, barring AA and AK. If the board comes down Q high, again- you have to stack off against AA/KK, since you're crushing everything else. These boards come down often enough, and the villain will have AJ/A10 enough compared to AK to make this worthwhile (I think). Then there's flops like this, where it comes down giving you the NFD. If it comes all low cards, you can put your hand reading to the test, and see if your opponent a) c-bets, b) gives away any information about his hand with the c-bet- such as sizing, time taken etc. You could also lead out at a low flop (not a fan of this really, I'd be much happier to take my chances doing a c/r if it feels he just has overs, or just folding).

Basically, the amount he has left to call leaves him with plenty behind if things go wrong on the flop, but it's just too big a hand to fold to a single 3bet pre. If you hold AJ/A10, I'd probably be more inclined to fold pre.

grantorino · May 2011

In Response to Re: Too Agro too early Vs Chip Leader?:

folding AQ BvB is too passive I think and not going to win you tournaments, but that's just my opinion. I dont really get this
What I like to do in this spot, since the whole AK thing really taints your view on it since that's the hand you're playing against, is imagine what happens in this spot with AJ (the best hand that we're ahead of)? Will the villain 3bet with AJ- probably, yes. Will he call a 4bet shove? Relatively unlikely. So with that in mind, 4betting is only going to fold out hands we beat, we get action from QQ/KK/AA/AK. Possibly you'll get action from some smaller pairs. That's too aggro for me, since all the hands we get action from have us crushed, unless he calls with J's or 10's, and you're still behind then. If the board comes down ace high, then you have to stack off IMO. You've gone ahead of his entire range, barring AA and AK. If the board comes down Q high, again- you have to stack off against AA/KK, since you're crushing everything else. These boards come down often enough, and the villain will have AJ/A10 enough compared to AK to make this worthwhile (I think). Then there's flops like this, where it comes down giving you the NFD. If it comes all low cards, you can put your hand reading to the test, and see if your opponent a) c-bets, b) gives away any information about his hand with the c-bet- such as sizing, time taken etc. You could also lead out at a low flop (not a fan of this really, I'd be much happier to take my chances doing a c/r if it feels he just has overs, or just folding). Basically, the amount he has left to call leaves him with plenty behind if things go wrong on the flop, but it's just too big a hand to fold to a single 3bet pre. If you hold AJ/A10, I'd probably be more inclined to fold pre.
Posted by DeucesLive

1. Why do you assume he 3bets AJ? I would think its far from standard. I certainly wouldnt without a good read on op in this spot
2. Obv we stack when we flop top pair, the question is how often we are still ahead and how often he pays us off with worse
3. Hand reading is going to be pretty difficult with no real reads on his 3betting range or how often he cbets to what size etc
4. I wouldnt think he often calls 4bets with worse, but if he has a wide 3betting range and folds pairs sometimes then it could be +EV. I dont really like it this deep though. Im not convinced calling will be +EV, folding is 0EV so it may be the best move. Folding AQ seems weak, but who cares no one knows you folded it

I can see why call seems good here, but oop with no reads its going to be a minefield doing things like c/r on low boards. If you can convince me its +EV I'll accept it, but imo its going to be pretty marginal between folding and calling so folding will never be a big mistake here

DeucesLive · May 2011

if your plan is to fold to a 3bet, why raise at all? Why not complete the sb and then call a raise, or fold? If your plan is to essentially stone cold bluff, why not raise with any 2? Sure, if he flats then you like the fact AQ plays better postflop, but you've thrown away a very strong hand BvB by raise/folding.

I think AJ/A10 is very worth 3 betting from the BB here- he doesn't have stone cold reads on him, but going by the information we do have;

a) player has a big chipstack- passive play rarely gathers many chips early on

b) player has been involved in a lot of pots since joining the table

That information alone suggests our villain is fairly active, and as such has a less than premium range. AQ figures to be at least in good shape against his preflop range, by my guess.

Obviously, he could have just been getting lucky and picking up big hands, which is why he has his stack and has been active. But of the two options, him tending towards LAG rather than TAG is definitely how I would read him.

grantorino · May 2011

In Response to Re: Too Agro too early Vs Chip Leader?:

if your plan is to fold to a 3bet, why raise at all? Why not complete the sb and then call a raise, or fold? If your plan is to essentially stone cold bluff, why not raise with any 2? Sure, if he flats then you like the fact AQ plays better postflop, but you've thrown away a very strong hand BvB by raise/folding.

I would think he flats more than he 3bets with these stacks, I would be raising for value from worse. Not betting because we might get raised is not a good enough reason imo

I think AJ/A10 is very worth 3 betting from the BB here- he doesn't have stone cold reads on him, but going by the information we do have; a) player has a big chipstack- passive play rarely gathers many chips early on b) player has been involved in a lot of pots since joining the table That information alone suggests our villain is fairly active, and as such has a less than premium range.

Why do you think he should 3bet AJ/AT from the BB? I think he shouldnt . Also the fact he has been active doesnt mean he has a wide 3betting range. Also even if he does his 3betting range may be very polarized (I accept this may be a reason to call, but we also fold best hand on flop lots and dont usually get paid when we hit so it does affect things)

AQ figures to be at least in good shape against his preflop range, by my guess. Obviously, he could have just been getting lucky and picking up big hands, which is why he has his stack and has been active. But of the two options, him tending towards LAG rather than TAG is definitely how I would read him.

Just because he seems laggy doesnt tell us much about his 3bet range
Posted by DeucesLive

I think its actually close between calling and folding, I dont think anything you have said is very wrong , i am just putting forward a few counter arguments

rusty762 · May 2011

In Response to Re: Too Agro too early Vs Chip Leader?: Deuces, I still think prefold (even tho maybe looks weak) was the way to proceed here when oop. Calling got exactly what you you wanted, or didn't, as the case maybe!

Poker debates, on the way are hands played, always remind us that it shouldn't be results orientated. But, the way this hand was played, and subsequently developed, the result was exactly what should have happened.And it did.
Postflop: I notice a few people agreed with the shove, but again I think to shove back over the top of the postflop bet was madness and was just a pure gamble for your tounament life and 62%+ certain dog to crash out.
I will reiterate, at this stage of the tourney, I do not think you do not need to throw your life away. I have heard quoted before from top pros that they would never throw their tournament life in on a draw unless they absolutely had no choice but.
Think this play in question is a classic confrontation with a chip leader that appears to bully the table. (For all you know he may well have built his stack from plays just such as this)!

When Gus Hansen won the Aussie Millions, he was all in just 4 times for his tournament life, but on all 4 occasions he was a huge favourite having respectively 91%,77%,89% and 87% winning chance.
He also says,quote : 'Let's put the luck factor aside, since you have absolutely no way of controlling coin flips. What you can control is whether to lock heads with the big stacks, or punish the small..........
I really would like to know what the guest pro analyst would think of this too.
'

In Response to Re: Too Agro too early Vs Chip Leader? : I think its actually close between calling and folding, I dont think anything you have said is very wrong , i am just putting forward a few counter arguments
Posted by grantorino

DeucesLive · May 2011

As much as I love Gus, he was also very lucky to be such a huge favourite. What isn't mentioned there, is all the times he was allin with not his tournament life at stake, but an enormous chunk of his chips invested not quite as much of a favourite. Also, the times he jammed allin where if he was called, was going to be an enormous dog.

Now, I'm not saying this is all luck. Pros make their own luck, and he certainly made his, by reading action, reading players, and taking calculated risks. He would never call off his entire stack with far off the nuts, but he would definitely shove with less than the nuts. But I think postflop, Gus plays this hand exactly the same, and busts exactly the same. You can't fold that to a single c-bet, and you certainly can't call it oop- it's got to be a shove. If it's reversed, and you lead out and get shoved on, you either grudgingly call because you've backed yourself into a corner where you're potstuck and know you're behind, or fold having committed a large portion of the stack. C/R is absolutely the way to play this postflop optimally.

The only debatable decision here is preflop- and I see your point GT, definitely. I can kinda see why you'd fold, and in retrospect- folding is superior to shoving, definitely, and perhaps close to calling. In this situation, calling is the aggressive option- rarely would I say that, but I think it's true here. Shoving isn't aggressive, it's spewy.

When faced with a passive or aggressive option, I always favour the latter- I think aggression wins tourneys, passivity cashes in them. I want to win rather than cash. The amount you're being asked to invest for such a big chance isn't massive considering you've already invested 300.

I know you wouldn't 3bet pre with AT+, I might not either. Depends on table dynamic. But you have to go on your information. Players when they've moved tables tend to normally sit tight, not come out raising- he's been involved in a lot of pots in the short time he's been there. This means one of two things- he's being dealt a lot of premium hands (possible but statistically unlikely) or he's trying to stamp his authority early on. If he's that kind of player, giving him the freedom to roll over the table isn't a good idea. Everything in poker is about odds, and the odds are in favour of him being on the loose aggressive side as opposed to him being a tight aggressive player who's just moved to your table and happened to be dealt a bunch of premium hands.

Too Agro too early Vs Chip Leader?

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