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200nl - set facing river shove.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dantb10 | Small blind | £1.00 | £1.00 | £197.00 | |
| offshoot | Big blind | £2.00 | £3.00 | £198.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| CharlieF29 | Fold | ||||
| mrpoate3 | Call | £2.00 | £5.00 | £447.96 | |
| villain | Raise | £8.00 | £13.00 | £218.30 | |
| dantb10 | Fold | ||||
| offshoot | Call | £6.00 | £19.00 | £192.00 | |
| mrpoate3 | Fold | ||||
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| offshoot | Check | ||||
| villain | Check | ||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| offshoot | Check | ||||
| villain | Bet | £12.00 | £31.00 | £206.30 | |
| offshoot | Raise | £36.00 | £67.00 | £156.00 | |
| villain | Call | £24.00 | £91.00 | £182.30 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| offshoot | Bet | £68.00 | £159.00 | £88.00 | |
| villain | All-in | £182.30 | £341.30 | £0.00 | |
| offshoot? | |||||
Comments
I'm with you on ruling out 22+66, that's unlikely to say the least. I also don't THINK he checks an overpair to the board? Obviously this is readless, but if you raise pre with jacks in position, this is exactly the board you want to be betting out on to stop yourself seeing an ace or king on the turn- if he doesn't bet this with jacks it's a very, very poor move. 89 still makes sense here, as does 77.
Starts betting on turn, and calls a raise too. He's not bluffing here (or really shouldn't be) because of the river action, so that card must have helped him- 77 and 89 both still make sense, although there's an outside possibility he picked up a flush draw (AKs?). Still doesn't make that much sense to me since he should probably be betting that flop with 2 overs.
My instinct definitely leans towards 89 because of how much interest he's shown, but 77 is a possibility. With how aggro you've been though, I think 3rd set on that board is actually a very vulnerable hand, your action came when the board straightened- so if he's not holding that hand himself, I don't know why he raises the river.
Hands i put him on here is JJ, QQ, KK, AA, so if its accurate so it makes it an easier call imo. if he's outsetted us just ul
Giving villian a range of TT,66,22,JTs and 98s we win 53.48% of the time, giving the price we are getting it should be a snap call with fist pump.
---
3,618,923 games 1.056 secs 3,427,010 games/sec
Board: 6s 2h Td 7s Jc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.349% 53.48% 00.00% 1935311 0.00 { 7d7h }
Hand 1: 46.651% 46.77% 00.00% 1692531 0.00 { TT, 66, 22, JTs, 98s }
--- (source PokerStove)
not to mention villian turns up with some weird stuff now and again like AJ and 2 spades
bet turn yourself
you will see 89 a bit here but I think its a snapcall with those odds
How he plays the turn and river is very interesting. While you're reads on him are not complete you appear to have played him enough for him to have reads on you. I think he can flat your raise on the turn with a wide value range knowing you can bet both ends of your range on the river. The question is how big is his value shove range on the river and how big does he think your V-Bet range on the river is? You've pretty much pot committed yourself on the river so if he thinks TP/GK and weak 2 pair hands are in your v-bet range he can easily have JT and be shoving for value. Likewise lower sets as well as higher sets and the straight. With how much you've put in I'm sigh calling to be honest as played. The fact we've made the set on the turn and the fact sets are so well hidden has disguised our hand strength enough to make this a +ev call IMO.
Of course if we throw in the actual ability of the player this can now be anything between a fistpump call and a snap fold, even with the pot odds offered.
I just can't fold here myself, not convinced either way that I am beaten or not the way hand was played out.
So I just say sod it and call
what are you beating overpair, 2 pr, set 3's & 6's, bluff
Screams 89 like you say, but also just as possible AA/KK
You have to call because you can't be certain right ?
Or if your not certain do you fold ?
I cant fold this set here without a stronger read on the player.
If hes got 89 or a better set, its just a cooler.
You have mentioned that you think he might be an agro fish and for this reason, i think we must call, because there might be weird bluffs in his range in addition to the other hands mentioned that you beat.