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HU SNG Variance
I've been playing poker online for around 9 or 10 years and in that time have played on most of the major sites, yet SKY poker has without doubt been the provider of my sickest EVER run of "bad luck". I've played nothing but HU SNG's for my last 600(ish) games because they are normally very profitable for me. In my last 25 games, i've won only 2. Yes TWO. The number of 1, 2 and 3 card suck outs seem miraculous in itself but i KNOW that what goes around comes around, so my extremely long run of GOOD luck is due soon. Thank God i never tilt. I might moan a bit, but i never tilt. 
)
A bad run like that certainly makes you question your game (and on a really bad day, the integrity of the site), so i wrote myself a simple script that runs all my hand histories through an evaluator. Unsurprisingly, the result is that my actual win rate is 7% less than my expected win rate.
So next time you think that a poker site is rigged or otherwise dodgy, remember our old friend "variance", cos it's him that makes poker both fantastic AND sick.
So what's YOUR worst run of consecutive losses?
)A bad run like that certainly makes you question your game (and on a really bad day, the integrity of the site), so i wrote myself a simple script that runs all my hand histories through an evaluator. Unsurprisingly, the result is that my actual win rate is 7% less than my expected win rate.
So next time you think that a poker site is rigged or otherwise dodgy, remember our old friend "variance", cos it's him that makes poker both fantastic AND sick.
So what's YOUR worst run of consecutive losses?
Comments
It's interesting to see what impact a 7% hand fluctuation has on game results although I'm not sure exactly what the hand evaluator is telling you? Is it just evaluating your pre-flop odds on hands that went to showdown? Where the opponent's cards aren't known, then obviously any evaluation is risky, at best.
How many hands did this sample contain?
in sng's recently had 11 pocket pairs bust by lower poket pairs in consecutive games. But then again yesterday i cracked kings twice with A Q and A J. (both hands were slow played by my opponent may I add) so its swings and roundabouts.
No real complaints here about the sites integrity, sometimes the plays you see are a touch ambitious but if you adapt your play to reflect this then Sky seems as profitible to me as any other site i've used.
Currently testing a style simlilar to sklansky's "system" that will certainly pinpoint any major discrepencies.