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How much would you call here, this deep?

edited June 2011 in The Poker Clinic
Been playing on FT this week, building up a HH.  Played the daily dollar to help ground the cash games I was playing (rush).

14,000 entrents, get down to last 70 so was pretty happy with it.  Money isnt too hot till last 5 seats, even then only about $9,000 for 1st

I have around 480,000, been playing around 6 hours at it.

Find A's in the cut off.  Blinds are 6/12k.  Accepted raise is around 2.4XB.  I make it 30k to go, button calls.  Other seats fold.  Button has played pretty solid throughout, pretty evenly stacked.

4hQc2S
Flop about 80k in pot.  I lead for 50K hoping opponent has a hand.  He flats.
4hQc2s  As  180K in pot I have around 400k back.  I lead out 70k, as I dont think there's too many hands he's going to love, I dont feel like he's holding the case A.
4hQc2s  As  9s.  320k in pot.  Flush gets there. 

The only real hand I can be afraid of is 2 spades, one of which likely being (a) Q. 

I have 330k back, which is still a significant stack in relation to the field.  But the winner of this pot will go into top 5.

Lead with the intention of calling all in?
Check call?
Check fold?
Jam?

He held KQ spades, I likely play his hand same way.  What bet size are you willing to call on river? 

Turn lead is far too small.

Comments

  • edited June 2011
    god yes you have somehow left yourself with over a pot bet left on the riverr despite going into the turn with  only 2x the pot stacksizes

    if u make it 110 on turn, river is super easy jam of 290k into 400k.
    i think i make it just under 150k unless you have loose/aggro/spewy/bluffy image then i shove


  • edited June 2011
    I'd played pretty tight throughout, mostly. 

    You see no need to slow down on river?  Your just happy to stack off readless here, if he shows up with a hand its a case of a bad beat and unavoidable?
  • edited June 2011
    yeah, bet turn bigger, shove river
  • edited June 2011
    If the flush is of such concern to you....

    Then why bet so small on the turn....

    I think it's a case of if he's somehow landed a flush then so be it, get the monies in.
  • edited June 2011
    I think I committed the cardinal sin of betting small to keep customer.

    This opponent had been sat on my left for around three hours so I had a pretty good feel for his range and tendancies.

    I think I half put him on two spades with a Q at the turn, but making top set with the 4th spade kind of froze me a little.  So knowing the only card you have to worry about on the river is a spade, then the spade falls kind of leaves you with some serious doubts. 

    I think this is also why i sized bet at turn as I did.  Know point making the pot so big I cant get away from it, which I wouldnt if I bet 130k, he calls then either I'm jamming the river or he is.  I dont have to go broke there.

    But in hindsight I'd just essentially jam turn.  Charge the maximum, dumb bet at turn.  Extracting value with a side order of fear is never good :p
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