10 seated live game river desision

The_Don90

Ok background info on the game. it was a £20 unlimited rebuy. However this is now past the rebuy period and we're onto final table with 10 left.

opponent. The opponent is one i know really well. A tight aggressive game. The likelyhood of a bluff is almost nil. Ive played with them alot and i honestly can say ive never seen them bluff.

the hand. (blinds 500/1000)

I have 22.5K and im UTG, BB is opponent they have around 60K
 
Hero looks at Js Jh in UTG posision and raises to 3500.

Every one folds round to BB who flat calls.

Flop. Qc 9s 2c

BB checks

Hero checks

I felt i could get information from my opponent by checking here, hes pretty tight as said and would likley have lead a Q on this board.


Turn 7h

BB checks

Hero bets 4500.

BB calls.

With the call here im pretty sure my opponent is on a draw. Straight and flush draws both out there.

River Jc

BB leads for heros stack.


Hero ???????



Now just to put this into context. Im sure he leads the flop with a Q so on the turn im actually going for value. However whwen the J of clubs hit it completes every single draw. KT, T8 both make a straight and any two clubs have completed their flush. I think the way the hand is played we can rule out all two pair/set combinations. Therefore personally think we're against a flush/straight or a complete bluff however ive never seen this opponent bluff.

Going by my read i think a fold is correct. However can i ever fold this spot PROFITABLLY.

DOHHHHHHH

If he never ever bluffs then it has to be a fold?

I wouldn't fold though, lol. I suspect you're probably giving him too much credit, but I'll use your read to answer the question..........

U can rule out QJ if he always bets flop and/or turn with Queen x.

Would he defend his bb to an utg open w/J9 or J7? - Probably not going by your description of him.

How would he play a set on the flop? Would he c/r the turn with a set? - This is the key question as sets r the only value hands that you can beat.

So given your read on him that he never bluffs, his value range crushes us, so you probably have to fold.

The_Don90

In Response to Re: 10 seated live game river desision:

If he never ever bluffs then it has to be a fold? I wouldn't fold though, lol. I suspect you're probably giving him too much credit, but I'll use your read to answer the question.......... U can rule out QJ if he always bets flop and/or turn with Queen x. Would he defend his bb to an utg open w/J9 or J7? - Probably not going by your description of him. How would he play a set on the flop? Would he c/r the turn with a set? - This is the key question as sets r the only value hands that you can beat. So given your read on him that he never bluffs, his value range crushes us, so you probably have to fold.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Given the opponent i think hes always check shoving the turn with a set mate. J7 is very out of his range. J9 suited i guess he might peel a flop with. and he certainly would play second pair rivering 2P in this manner aswell.

DOHHHHHHH

So his range is straights, flushes and J9? No other possible hands?

It's deffo a fold then.

The_Don90

In Response to Re: 10 seated live game river desision:

So his range is straights, flushes and J9? No other possible hands? It's deffo a fold then.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

yea im pretty sure i cant think of anything, 97s might be possible not 100% sure on how opponent would play the turn with a Turned 2P. any 2x hand and Qx im 100% sure i can rule out. hes pretty tight so very unlikley to have 2x with 2P and Qx im 100% sure he leads the flop.

AMYBR

Having 60k there might induce a bluff, especially if he's called pre, c/c turn.

Personally I have to lead flop, if I'm behind out of the gates  I want to know it cheaply, plus it doesnt let any fillers or draws come off for free.

If he calls flop your IP to check behind on each street or elect to fold with enough ammunition for a solid double through in the next orbit or so.

As the hand plays its really close.  The board does potentially connect with callers range.  If you say he's pretty rocky would he put you in on river with 1pr/2pr after you lead turn + raise UTG?  Your the only one who knows the answer to that.  If he's more likely to put you in with the hand than believe you'll muck most hands to the allin bet, the answers clear.

I think its very player dependant.

Dudeskin8

You start with 22.5k and by river have 35% of your stack in the middle.

In this situation it's pretty clear he has you beat by suddenly going crazy after playing so weak/passive limp previously, but I would personally check the turn and call off a small bet on a safe river.

grantorino

if he adecent tag he should have a very narrow flatting range oop to an utg open 22BB deep


why do you think he donks flop with a Q? If he flats hands like KT pre and leads when he flops top pair its pretty likely hes a fish. Idk, I cant really put him on a range pre which is really important here. From your reads it sounds like a fold but getting 2/1 with a set 22BB deep I would never fold this in game

LOL_RAISE

folding is never profitable!
can you 100% rule out smaller sets?

ZedsDeadBa

When I read threads like this I get so dispirited ;o((

You're a very clever bunch of dudes.

Fair play to you.

Regards,

Z.

The_Don90

In Response to Re: 10 seated live game river desision:

folding is never profitable! can you 100% rule out smaller sets?
Posted by LOL_RAISE

I probably cant rule out 7's or 2's tbh. fairly positive my opponent doesnt play a set like this. One thing i forgot to mention my opponent wasnt the average guy ud find in a pub he plays online STTs alot.

Just the way its played the only set i could put him on myself (going by way hes played it) is jacks. which obviously he cant have. Queens he certainly wouldnt play like this and im 90% sure he leads the turns with 9s. 7s and 2s i guess could have been played this way but really not sure.