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Facing all in on river. Bluff or Nuts?

edited June 2011 in The Poker Clinic
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceLiberachi7Small blind £0.25£0.25£97.50F_IvanovicBig blind £0.50£0.75£114.59MrSpringsSit out     Your hole cards44   jacklFold    bingo633Raise £1.50£2.25£156.81DAV2Fold    Liberachi7Call £1.25£3.50£96.25F_IvanovicRaise £6.00£9.50£108.59bingo633Fold    Liberachi7Call £5.00£14.50£91.25Flop  QA4   Liberachi7Check    F_IvanovicCheck    Turn  5   Liberachi7Bet £9.00£23.50£82.25F_IvanovicCall £9.00£32.50£99.59River  2   Liberachi7Bet £18.80£51.30£63.45F_IvanovicAll-in £99.59£150.89£0.00Liberachi7Fold    F_IvanovicMuck    F_IvanovicWin £68.30 £68.30F_IvanovicReturn £80.79£1.80£149.09
Throughout hand I was very confident I was ahead, upto and including river. I check to induce on the flop, bet for value on turn and then on the river I am more than happy to value bet. His all in takes me completely by surprise, and really did not smell right.  For me he is completely polarising his range here, as he is never value betting AK, AQ or sets. The only hand which makes sense is a backdoor flush, or a stone cold bluff. 
Part of me did want to call, as the way he slowed down after 3betting preflop had made me confident he had missed, and knew that a bluff was the only way to win the hand. However I reluctantly folded as I couldn't believe he is bluffing enough times in this spot to make it profitable.  What do you think, made the flush or a sick bluff? And can you ever call here?


Comments

  • edited June 2011
    Well 2bh you played that fine i must admit he has gotta have either AAA which he was happy to just call ur turn to build pot and didnt wanna lose customer if he raised or on other hand could be ak spades which is mor elikely i must admit.. i personally would have folded this river bet, cant see him bluffing or turning a hand that he raised pre then just flatted turn into a bluff 2bh
    Good Fold
  • edited June 2011
    Horrible spot,

    good fold
  • edited June 2011
    think the 3 is unlikely.

    this villain is more than capable of 3betting stuff like 98s etc pre.

    gross spot tho
  • edited June 2011
    really tough spot.

    the wheel draw being there makes this really tricky cos he must basically know you never have the 3. 

    think i like the fold....there is so much out there beating you

    i would check/call river though i think in that spot especially this deep
  • edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: Facing all in on river. Bluff or Nuts?:
    really tough spot. the wheel draw being there makes this really tricky cos he must basically know you never have the 3.  think i like the fold....there is so much out there beating you i would check/call river though i think in that spot especially this deep
    Posted by huuuuume
    c/c the river is really bad because he can check back all marginal hands i.e a lot of aces, kings, KQ, jacks etc that might hero you after he checks flop.
  • edited June 2011
    bluff is defiantely possible but if u call this type of re-raise everytime i think you are losing a lot more than you win

    would only call if seen villain making similar plays before or have reads of how he plays made flush that doesn't fit with this play

    like if he usually min or small re-reraises river when he hits a big hand

    he could also have AQ and think he was slow playing you by checking flop and just calling turn but more likely its a flush



  • edited June 2011
    bluff is defiantely possible but if u call this type of re-raise everytime i think you are losing a lot more than you win

    would only call if seen villain making similar plays before or have reads of how he plays made flush that doesn't fit with this play

    like if he usually min or small re-reraises river when he hits a big hand

    he could also have AQ and think he was slow playing you by checking flop and just calling turn but more likely its a flush



  • ybyb
    edited June 2011
    fold pre

    I'd bet slightly more on the turn and river but I think its a good fold.
  • edited June 2011
    pre is ok this deep I think, although it kinda turns your hand face up

    idk I cant see many hands he shows up with here that flat turn/shove river, maybe A3s, Ace with small card flush. I would really want to call this but not sure
  • ybyb
    edited June 2011
    meh I really doubt calling here oop is going to be +EV given that we need to make ~£35 when we flop a set to make calling profitable, and given that ivanovic's 3betting range is pretty wide here we probably aren't going to make that on average. And its really hard for us to win the hand without flopping a set and we sometimes flop a set and lose.

    Also the only hands we beat on the river is stuff like KK/Ax that he is turning into a bluff and I don't think he's going to be doing that enough at 50nl for calling to be good tbh.

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