Its only variance

Seagull158 · June 2011

Oh PUH - LEEEEEASE! Fix it Sky or shut down.

Flop
MJAMESM	Small blind		£0.04	£0.04	£23.18
BReal	Big blind		£0.08	£0.12	£4.12
	Your hole cards	K A
freechips1	Fold
Wigachick	Fold
OBEONE	Fold
Seagull158	Raise		£0.24	£0.36	£14.89
MJAMESM	Fold
BReal	Call		£0.16	£0.52	£3.96
		2 9 6
BReal	Check
Seagull158	Check
Turn
		K
BReal	Bet		£0.24	£0.76	£3.72
Seagull158	Raise		£0.72	£1.48	£14.17
BReal	Call		£0.48	£1.96	£3.24
River
		10
BReal	Check
Seagull158	Bet		£1.20	£3.16	£12.97
BReal	Call		£1.20	£4.36	£2.04
Seagull158	Show	K A
BReal	Show	9 10
BReal	Win	Two Pairs, 10s and 9s	£4.03		£6.07

DAVEYZZ · June 2011

sky is rigged shocker!

oh.....i give up!

Crunchybob · June 2011

Why arent u raising more with ak pre flop, i make this 24p when playing 4NL, this should be at least 50p for him to call pre flop imo.

ul on the end

AyrGraeme · June 2011

In Response to Re: Its only variance:

Why arent u raising more with ak pre flop, i make this 24p when playing 4NL, this should be at least 50p for him to call pre flop imo. ul on the end
Posted by Crunchybob

Hand absolutely fine as played. Got unlucky - not a fix - it just happens. Get over it or stop playing would be my advice.

I'm not going to lecture you again Crunchy on why pre flop raise size dependant on hand strength aint clever.

Crunchybob · June 2011

In Response to Re: Its only variance:

In Response to Re: Its only variance : Hand absolutely fine as played. Got unlucky - not a fix - it just happens. Get over it or stop playing would be my advice. I'm not going to lecture you again Crunchy on why pre flop raise size dependant on hand strength aint clever.
Posted by AyrGraeme

Lecture me all you like, however if his playing 8NL, why is he bets the same as mine on 4nl?

by raising more he folds out hands, its not rocket science, this hand should be won on the turn(with the correct bet size)
(again some ppl on sky poker have no idea about pot odds sigh)

He hits lucky on river, its not a fix and is ul but again should this hand even reach the river?

AyrGraeme · June 2011

In Response to Re: Its only variance:

In Response to Re: Its only variance : Lecture me all you like, however if his playing 8NL, why is he bets the same as mine on 4nl? by raising more he folds out hands, its not rocket science, this hand should be won on the turn(with the correct bet size) (again some ppl on sky poker have no idea about pot odds sigh) He hits lucky on river, its not a fix and is ul but again should this hand even reach the river?
Posted by Crunchybob[/QUOT

The guy has a pair plus a flush draw - any sensible bet cannot take away his odds - unless you want to do your specialty and jam every time you have top pair with a decent kicker.

If we suppose a more common scenario for examplehe has 9/10 off-suit he has raised an amount which can get a worse hand like 9/10 to call and turn a better profit long term.
This hand played from the turn in a hypothetical 9/10 off scenario, played out 9 times the AK wins 8. Played as it was even if villain folds the river if he doesnt hit 9 or 10 turns a profit of £7.24 if he wins 8 out of 9. If he bets him out on the turn and wins all 9 the profit is only £6.84.

Why would you want to take it down on the turn if you are a big fav going into the river?

AyrGraeme · June 2011

In Response to Re: Its only variance:

In Response to Re: Its only variance : Lecture me all you like, however if his playing 8NL, why is he bets the same as mine on 4nl? by raising more he folds out hands, its not rocket science, this hand should be won on the turn(with the correct bet size) (again some ppl on sky poker have no idea about pot odds sigh) He hits lucky on river, its not a fix and is ul but again should this hand even reach the river?
Posted by Crunchybob

IT HAS BEEN FOLDED TO HIM ON THE BUTTON!! He has AK - he got one caller - if he folds out any more hands he picks up the blinds. Is this what you want to do with AKs on the button?

DOHHHHHHH · June 2011

Pre flop you want to get as much money in the middle as you can. My standard open would depend on how fishy the table is. If they love to see flops, I play a tight range of hands and open big for value. If the table is tight, I'll play more hands, and open smaller.

On the turn if we raise, it isn't with the intention of making people fold. We only want people to fold if we are bluffing?

The turn is a good card, we don't need to bluff, we can call because we think we are ahead, or raise because we think we're ahead and he will call with worse hands.

Pre flop is fine readless. Personally my standard open is 4xbb, but this is ok also.

AyrGraeme · June 2011

In Response to Re: Its only variance:

Pre flop you want to get as much money in the middle as you can. My standard open would depend on how fishy the table is. If they love to see flops, I play a tight range of hands and open big for value. If the table is tight, I'll play more hands, and open smaller. On the turn if we raise, it isn't with the intention of making people fold. We only want people to fold if we are bluffing? The turn is a good card, we don't need to bluff, we can call because we think we are ahead, or raise because we think we're ahead and he will call with worse hands. Pre flop is fine readless. Personally my standard open is 4xbb, but this is ok also.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Spot on DOHHHHHHH. Crunchy mate, I am not criticising you - I see where you are coming from in terms of people not being able to read you at NL 4 or NL 8 - even if you raise 10 bb with QQ KK AA or AK they still dont get it, but in terms of playing poker this guy is playing fine. Because it is differentto your style doesn't make it wrong and Iwould say his style is more likely to be successful if he moves up the levels than your style.

Great point about sizing your bet in relation to table dynamics. Crunchy is an advocate of sizing bets dependant on strength of hole cards. I am merely trying to educate him this is not a great long term strategy.

Great point also about getting worse hands to call. Crunchy wants to take hands down pre, on flop or by the turn at the very latest.

DOHHHHHHH · June 2011

Crunchy is a dym player I think? Or started as one....

That might explain some of the problems he's having converting to cash, or maybe why he's questioning the changes in your thought process.

Quite often in dyms you're happy to take hands down when you're marginally ahead, whereas cash is all about maximizing your winnings, and finding every bit of value you can....

Good that he's questioning things though, be even better if he listens and understands!

ecoutez et repetez! Or sumthin like that ........

Get all your money in everytime you're a 55/45 favourite crunchy and you'll be a millionnaire b4 long !

AyrGraeme · June 2011

In Response to Re: Its only variance:

Crunchy is a dym player I think? Or started as one.... That might explain some of the problems he's having converting to cash, or maybe why he's questioning the changes in your thought process. Quite often in dyms you're happy to take hands down when you're marginally ahead, whereas cash is all about maximizing your winnings, and finding every bit of value you can.... Good that he's questioning things though, be even better if he listens and understands! ecoutez et repetez! Or sumthin like that ........ Get all your money in everytime you're a 55/45 favourite crunchy and you'll be a millionnaire b4 long !
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

At the risk of sounding like I want to suck ye off - great point again!! If he was a DYM player a lot now makes sense. Don't get me wrong. By the sounds of it he has similar traits to what I did when I started out at nl4 - I used to wait for big pairs, raise 25 (yes 25!!) bb and shove any flop with no overs and I turned a profit. I have no issue with him promoting this tactic. He is being a bit naive, however, in some of his points which criticise players who do not play 'his way'

AyrGraeme · June 2011

Sometimes it pays to keep em in the hand

Flop
tallboy	Small blind		£0.25	£0.25	£60.15
AyrGraeme	Big blind		£0.50	£0.75	£49.92
	Your hole cards	J J
Windy695	Call		£0.50	£1.25	£23.34
kidgirlgy	Call		£0.50	£1.75	£21.07
uBrick	Fold
ArcadeAmbo	Fold
drb76	Fold
tallboy	Fold
AyrGraeme	Raise		£2.00	£3.75	£47.92
Windy695	Fold
kidgirlgy	Call		£2.00	£5.75	£19.07
		7 3 4
AyrGraeme	Check
kidgirlgy	Check
Turn
		10
AyrGraeme	Check
kidgirlgy	Bet		£2.88	£8.63	£16.19
AyrGraeme	Raise		£11.51	£20.14	£36.41
kidgirlgy	Call		£8.63	£28.77	£7.56
River
		2
AyrGraeme	Bet		£14.39	£43.16	£22.02
kidgirlgy	All-in		£7.56	£50.72	£0.00
AyrGraeme	Unmatched bet		£6.83	£43.89	£28.85
AyrGraeme	Show	J J
kidgirlgy	Show	10 8
AyrGraeme	Win	Pair of Jacks	£42.09		£70.94

Crunchybob · June 2011

My bet sizing is down to the fact that ppl call with pretty much any 2 suited/pair/connectors, at low stakes imo.

therefore if u do have a good hand, raise big. Isnt this one of the points u make in ur nl4 guide dohhh?

alot of ppl suckout on the river, theres a whole thread on it a51, if u dont get down to the river u cant suckout. simples.

obv if u have the nuts, then u value bet.

ps. my comments about bet sizing pretty much relates to seagulls complete archive of 'bad beats', he simply dont bet enough for this level imo.

AyrGraeme · June 2011

In Response to Re: Its only variance:

Sometimes it pays to keep em in the hand tallboy Small blind £0.25 £0.25 £60.15 AyrGraeme Big blind £0.50 £0.75 £49.92 Your hole cards J J Windy695 Call £0.50 £1.25 £23.34 kidgirlgy Call £0.50 £1.75 £21.07 uBrick Fold ArcadeAmbo Fold drb76 Fold tallboy Fold AyrGraeme Raise £2.00 £3.75 £47.92 Windy695 Fold kidgirlgy Call £2.00 £5.75 £19.07 Flop 7 3 4 AyrGraeme Check kidgirlgy Check Turn 10 AyrGraeme Check kidgirlgy Bet £2.88 £8.63 £16.19 AyrGraeme Raise £11.51 £20.14 £36.41 kidgirlgy Call £8.63 £28.77 £7.56 River 2 AyrGraeme Bet £14.39 £43.16 £22.02 kidgirlgy All-in £7.56 £50.72 £0.00 AyrGraeme Unmatched bet £6.83 £43.89 £28.85 AyrGraeme Show J J kidgirlgy Show 10 8 AyrGraeme Win Pair of Jacks £42.09 £70.94
Posted by AyrGraeme

........................................and sometimes it doesnt

Flop
tooly2	Small blind		£0.20	£0.20	£22.44
AyrGraeme	Big blind		£0.40	£0.60	£60.14
	Your hole cards	K Q
bignutz39	Fold
Dafned84	Fold
_4JACKS	Fold
chiphazad	Fold
tooly2	Raise		£1.00	£1.60	£21.44
AyrGraeme	Call		£0.80	£2.40	£59.34
		6 Q 7
tooly2	Bet		£1.20	£3.60	£20.24
AyrGraeme	Call		£1.20	£4.80	£58.14
Turn
		4
tooly2	Check
AyrGraeme	Bet		£3.60	£8.40	£54.54
tooly2	Call		£3.60	£12.00	£16.64
River
		Q
tooly2	Bet		£6.00	£18.00	£10.64
AyrGraeme	Call		£6.00	£24.00	£48.54
tooly2	Show	4 4
AyrGraeme	Muck	K Q
tooly2	Win	Full House, 4s and Queens	£22.80		£33.44

AyrGraeme · June 2011

In Response to Re: Its only variance:

My bet sizing is down to the fact that ppl call with pretty much any 2 suited/pair/connectors, at low stakes imo. therefore if u do have a good hand, raise big. Isnt this one of the points u make in ur nl4 guide dohhh? alot of ppl suckout on the river, theres a whole thread on it a51, if u dont get down to the river u cant suckout. simples. obv if u have the nuts, then u value bet. ps. my comments about bet sizing pretty much relates to seagulls complete archive of 'bad beats', he simply dont bet enough for this level imo.
Posted by Crunchybob

The first part of this sentence is a good point, mate, though I disagree woth the second.

Essentially we are talking 2 different (both potentially profitable) strategies. Yours says try to take down the pot when you have a good but vulnerable hands as soon as possible. His is try to extract value from hands you will when you are favourite but accept that you will lose some of them (a bit like those canny bookies do to us mug punters).

There is nothing particularly wrong with his play, but as you correctly point out he needs to understand the risks involved and not complain when he does get unlucky (the bookie doesnt complain when the punter's horse comes in - he is happy to lay odds in his favour to turn a profit long term)

Crunchybob · June 2011

Clearly i play to aggro, but i like to be in charge of the hand and its just my opinion and how i wud of played it.

ppl love cheap cards on here and im sure if he had the same hand and suspected his oppo had a flush draw, would he really want to give his oppo the opportunity to hit with a small turn bet?

if his betting the same bets i make at 4nl on 8nl then i must be doing something wrong

tapeworm · June 2011

to be fair Crunchy your not "wrong"

However, although NL8 isnt that different to NL4, people are a little tighter. No need to 6-8xBB raise AK. 24p is fine unopened here imo.

Seagull158 · June 2011

In Response to Re: Its only variance:

In Response to Re: Its only variance : The first part of this sentence is a good point, mate, though I disagree woth the second. Essentially we are talking 2 different (both potentially profitable) strategies. Yours says try to take down the pot when you have a good but vulnerable hands as soon as possible. His is try to extract value from hands you will when you are favourite but accept that you will lose some of them (a bit like those canny bookies do to us mug punters). There is nothing particularly wrong with his play, but as you correctly point out he needs to understand the risks involved and not complain when he does get unlucky (the bookie doesnt complain when the punter's horse comes in - he is happy to lay odds in his favour to turn a profit long term)
Posted by AyrGraeme

Here's my problem - I bet OK (general comments say so). I go in ahead most of the time when I bet out. I try and extract value from all my good hands. Yet I was able to post 5 hands just from 1 session yesterday when I got s c r e w e d. PLus, several more today that I rerained frpom posting, including a set of 3s on the flop getting called by 77. Of course, the third 7 arrived as soon as the money went in. In the last 3 months I am down 10 BIs (from a healthy BR fortunately).
WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?

grantorino · June 2011

^^^^^^^^^^^^
if the hand you are referring to is the one in the bbv money nearly all went in after the 7 came down. Villain played his hand ok, he binked its just a cooler it happens

btw I think your postflop sizing is often a bit too small (not this hand, but some of the others you have posted).

Coolers and bad beats happen, you cant do anything about them, just focus on playing your own hands as well as you can

Seagull158 · June 2011

In Response to Re: Its only variance:

^^^^^^^^^^^^ if the hand you are referring to is the one in the bbv money nearly all went in after the 7 came down. Villain played his hand ok, he binked its just a cooler it happens btw I think your postflop sizing is often a bit too small (not this hand, but some of the others you have posted). Coolers and bad beats happen, you cant do anything about them, just focus on playing your own hands as well as you can
Posted by grantorino

I think 2 or 3 coolers and bad beats an hour is well outside the normal bounds of probability. Something is wrong and I don't think its the way I play.
By the way, the reason I was sitting with 15 quid in the earlier post is cos i sat down with 8, got stacked, reloaded, fought my way back up to 15 and then got ****ed over again. Its is always this way.

grantorino · June 2011

well if you think that stop playing here. Play somewhere else or dont play at all. Thats all you can do about the situation, no point in moaning about it

Its only variance

Comments