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Feeling strongly that opponent will continue to donk bet, how much do you worry about the nuts, prot

edited June 2011 in The Poker Clinic
Pretty solid cash game last night 10 handed £1/£2.

Been sat for around 4 hours and not much happening, have a maniac on my right and a guy calling everything on my left, so only really playing my cards.  Takes them awhile to go broke, by the time they do I'm, sat with around £480 from a buy in of £250.  It gets late and we are told we have one more orbit to play, now 5 handed.  I limp with 89o on the button, just to be invloved mostly, SB completes BB checks. 

£6 in pot 7d10dJc.  I flop the nut straight, but its slightly vulnerable.  SB  has about £65, BB has slightly less than me around £460.  SB opens for £8, BB pops it to £30.  Normally I re raise every day of the week here hoping to see significant action on flop.  But i figure SB is in the pot regardless for £60 if he has any real hand, so my raise only really serves to push laggy BB out.  Plus its the last 3 or four hands so I think it's likely a good spot to gamble on a blank turn, am IP and this guy will likely fire again, big.  So I flat the £30, as expected SB pushes for the £60, BB calls.  I step out again, flatting, hoping laggy SB will follow through on turn & river.

£186 in pot.  I have £420 behind opponent £400ish.  7d10dJc   Ah.  Not the ideal card as I know lag would very much raise with KQ on flop.  He bets £120 in a weird way that I find hard to read, but it definately doesnt feel like KQ now, if anything it felt like a pair and 2 diamonds.  Again, normally I protect my hand here, but I dont want him to fold really, people make odds choices on the last hand or two of the night, they'll throw away massive hands just to make sure they dont go broke.  So again I flat.

£426 in pot, I have £300 back, opponent has £380ish.  7d10dJc  Ah  3h.   Best river card I can hope for, definately didnt want to see a Diamond, paint or board to pair.  Opponent bets £100 even, less than his turn bet.  I was entertaining the idea of being worried about KQ, its still on my mind a little as I've been running so bad lately I expect 1st nuts to be there, but I just have to feel like I'm losing so much value vs a set that I cant not re raise here.  So I put him in for the extra £200, he calls showing A7.

Whhhheeee  £1026 pot for me.  Dont even have a chance to lose any back as with two players knocked out we break table.

How much do you hate not protecting your hand here?  I mostly hated it at the time, but felt opponent would keep firing.  Not my usual line, admittidly was happy to gamble there given we were down to last few hands

Also how much can you really be worried by KQ?  Am surprised opponent went broke with a weak two pair here, as the very worst hand I could possibly have had was a better two pair.  My range is pretty polarised in this game as the action can be crazy.

Comments

  • edited June 2011
    Im raising or folding pre

    I dont mind not protecting your hand, but I think theres huge value in raising this flop. Lots of turncards slow down villain or halve his equity if hes drawing. I know it will look really strong 3betting flop when SB is always calling but I think thats the line I take as BB should never bluffraise this flop in a limped pot unless hes really bad. I suppose he may be raising a decent J given sb stack and raising might fold this out, but he can prob put you on tonnes or drawy hands here and maybe continue
     
    Another thing you need to think about is what to do when the diamond comes or board pairs because I dont think you can just assume you are beat.

    btw had he just A7or Ad7d
  • edited June 2011
    A7 off. 

    I hear what your saying totally, but as most cash game sessions wind down, there is the tendancy to limp.  I think I'd just decided that I wasnt going to fold on any street.  Opponent doesnt have to have a big hand here really to keep firing, he is pretty bad.

    Yeah I totally 3 bet flop in normal circumstance.  If SB was sat deeper I definately would have.  But I felt like SB Lag was just going to keep firing and commit himself, whereas he'd probably go away to any raise. 

    Never the line I normally take here, but it being the last hand or three had a big impact.  Limping so weak, flopping gin then pushing people off didnt feel right.  Like I mentioned many people really nit up in the last few hands. 

    As you mention the Diamond was my biggest concern, as opponent plays a diamond draw exactly like this.  I'm not a big fan of letting cards come off and was aware that I was gambling here, which is never really my game. 

    Kind of felt like he was sat deep enough to gamble with though, if that makes sense.
  • edited June 2011
    I dont really have a problem with calling and risking him outdrawing you. I just think it might be easier get his money on the flop than later in the hand, obv we never want him to fold

    If he showed up with A7o here I woudnt describe him as a lag I would describe him as bad
  • edited June 2011
    Lol yes totally, especially when I really am about as TAG as it comes in this game and was never calling turn with a weaker hand than him, which he definately ought to know.  Especially as I'd just folded the AJ face up on the AKJ board.  I guess he just felt priced in.

    There's just no way he can think he has the best hand an river.  But £800 pot for an extra £200 to call, may have been tempting enough.

    The only thing I can think of is he picked up on my unease when the A hit the turn.  I've been running pretty bad so having your flopped nuts downgraded may have caused me to give off some worry.  I wanted to ask him what he put me on, but didnt seem like a good time :p
  • edited June 2011
    i think flatting the 30 is fine if you are going to 4bet when the shorty shoves his 65 in
  • edited June 2011
    In Response to Re: Feeling strongly that opponent will continue to donk bet, how much do you worry about the nuts, protect your hand or pop it here?:
    i think flatting the 30 is fine if you are going to 4bet when the shorty shoves his 65 in
    Posted by LOL_RAISE
    Yeah I think your likely right.  In the hand this was the line I think i intended to take, pot was healthy enough to take without risking the suckout on the very wet board. 

    I am an uber nit in this cash game so a 4 bet would have sent opponents hand flying to the muck, despite him being so bad, after all he had BPTK, only improving at turn.  But saying that if an A or 7 spikes the river as played there is no way I can get away.

    This calculated gamble IP really isnt my normal line in any hand, I think I actively decided to gamble on the fade here.  Without being results orientated its probably pretty bad though still....?

    I know people who are happy to let cards come off in deepstack cash, putting their opponents on a certain range and percentage, letting opponent maintain the betting lead through streets when perceived to be drawing so thin.  I think in principle its a great approach, depending on strength of read and feel.  I just hate not protecting my hand vs those outs.
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