Correct call?

percival09

Just a quick one, just wondering whether this is a profitable play in a 5.50$ 2R1A latter stages

doesn't really matter about PF, all you need to know is villain has 112K and i have 187K with blinds at 1k 2K, so we're both deep.

i hold 67 of spades and have called a raise

flop 3 spades, 5 diamonds, 9 spades

villain open shoves (LOL) 104K into a 21K pot, i gave myself 17 outs, and tbf i snap called, i put him on over pair and don't think i've ever called anything as quick in my life!

is this correct mathematically etc? didnt think i could fold as that was the flop i paid to hit, the result is pointless

grantorino

15 outs by my count if he has an overpair, which is basically a flip. If he has spadedraw with 2 overs we are 2/1dog .Bare overs we are 2/1 favourite. I think you can call but I prob fold especially this deep and you prob have an advantage over field. A big part of the value of draws like this is fold equity against hands we beat/flip with and we have none here

BigBluster

Mathematically (assuming he did have an overpair and not AsKs) you were about 56% so it was a correct call.

However, the same mathematics also apply even if the villain had just a single chip more than you but in this scenario you must fold. Why give the villain a 44% chance of beating you when you could grind him down, whereby (assuming you're the better player) he'd only have maybe a 15% chance?
This is fairly obvious (giving up a +ev play for a bigger +ev situation) but for some reason is hellishly complicated to poker players!

grantorino

In Response to Re: Correct call?:

Mathematically (assuming he did have an overpair and not AsKs) you were about 56% so it was a correct call. However, the same mathematics also apply even if the villain had just a single chip more than you but in this scenario you must fold. Why give the villain a 44% chance of beating you when you could grind him down, whereby (assuming you're the better player) he'd only have maybe a 15% chance? This is fairly obvious (giving up a +ev play for a bigger +ev situation) but for some reason is hellishly complicated to poker players!
Posted by BigBluster

If we should fold when villain has 44% chance to knock us out why should we call when he has 44% chance to take 2/3 of our stack?

Why do you think we are 85% to beat any player in a tournament ?  I think that seriously overestimating anyone edge in a single tournament with this stack depth

BigBluster

In Response to Re: Correct call?:

In Response to Re: Correct call? : If we should fold when villain has 44% chance to knock us out why should we call when he has 44% chance to take 2/3 of our stack? Posted by grantorino

Because we'd still have 38 bigs if we lost. This is a massive difference to tournament strategy.

grantorino

In Response to Re: Correct call?:

In Response to Re: Correct call? : Because we'd still have 38 bigs if we lost. This is a massive difference to tournament strategy.
Posted by BigBluster

fair enough, misread it thought we were left with a lot less if we lost

waller02

yeah because of the fact you have 38 bigs if you lose, I would call

percival09

ty for responses, i recovered from this and finished 5th so all is good! looking back maybe the fold was the correct decision, but i couldn't bring myself to do it after hitting the dream flop!