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explain expected value.....
Talking to a mate who's just binked a sat.
It was a super turbo jobbie shovefest, with loads of all ins and flips etc etc etc.
Anyway, afterwards, I said he ran golden to get through that field with that structure. He disagreed, and claimed he'd "ran normal" as he rarely went in behind and had the best hand most of the time.
I tried explaining (badly) that everytime you win an all in confrontation where your opponent has equity in the hand (ie he isn't drawing dead) then you are running above expectation....
Is this correct?
If I get AA all in pre flop against 22 and I win, I'm running +ev? - right?
So to cash or even go deep in a tournament you MUST be running +ev?
Can anyone confirm what I'm saying is right, or even try and explain it better than me, because it's tilting me.
Thanx.
Comments
Yeh so if I get all the money in on the turn somehow with 98% equity and my hand holds up, I'm technically running +ev because I've won it 100% of the time, albeit over a sample of 1 hand and I should only win it 98% of the time?
ill admit to this mate being me btw.
Johnconnor your arguement is the exact same one i held.
to make an example of expected value if u got all in with AA and get called by 22, both have £100 each and were in the blinds the total pot would be £200. because u have roughly 80% equity, in the long term u can expect to win an average of £160 (80% of £200) so effectively every time u win the pot for 200 total u have won more than you can expect long term and are therefore running above ev.
as a single example this obv doesnt work to well, but this can be applied over lots of scenarios to create useful results.
your friend obv ran above ev to win btw.
After the rebuy period ended i had 5BB and that was about the average. Which was crazy. i think i only had to show my cards 3 times after that, AA v 66 AIP, KQ v AT of short stack i isolated knowing even if i lost i was gaining chips as he had 0.5BB. I hit a Q. and final hand i had K9 on BB. Shorty shoved with less then a BB and me and SB just checked down i won with a flush to 9 i never seen what the others had.
On the whole i took 3 double rebuys and my add on at the break (which gave me the total of 5BB). The rebuy period was all about really getting to the addon break with as many chips as possible. 5 min blinds arent forgiving in a 90 min rebuy period with a 6K double rebuy and 30K addon so it was very much a shovefest.
Tomorrows stage 2 sat (1 in 14 i think) is £108 entry 30 min blinds with 5K starting and no rebuys. So will be a far better tourny overall.
+EV will win money over the long run
-EV will lose money over the long run
The way it works
Multiply the results of the possiable outcomes by their probabillity of happening, and then add all of them together.
Coin flip
A friend offers to pay you £1.50 every time he flips a coin and it lands Tails
if it lands Heads you pay him £1.00
Heads = Lose £1 probabillity of heads =0.50p
Tails = Win £1.50 probabillity of Tails =0.50p
EV = Heads outcome + Tails outcome
= -£1 x 0.5 + £1.50 x 0.50
= -0.5 + 0.75
= £ 0.25p EV
every hand you win your running +ev as long as your not 100% fave which is rare :P
But yeah doh your basically correct if you get it in as a 60% favourite of whatever and you win 5 times in a row doing this you are running good, as you should only win 3 even though you got your money in good each time
this has turned into a brag post donald
essentially, if a move is +EV, if you do it everytime in the long run you make money, if its a -EV move, u might get away with it but overtime you lose
this 'running +EV' i've not heard before, but presumably means you have won more than should have from hands played at showdown
essentially, if a move is +EV, if you do it everytime in the long run you make money, if its a -EV move, u might get away with it but overtime you lose
this 'running +EV' i've not heard before, but presumably means you have won more than should have from hands played at showdown
easy when the blinds are going up quicker then your getting dealt hands haha bink that next stage don !!!!