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Does anyone make the hero call here?

arniesarmyarniesarmy
edited July 2011 in The Poker Clinic
You're not beating anything. You just can't call here.
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  • arniesarmyarniesarmy
    edited July 2011
    £1.50/£3 NLH Hero arniesarmy has £212
    Villain Nosebleed_ (BB) has £742

    Hero AdJh raises to £9
    Villain calls

    Flop 8c9c9h

    Villain checks
    Hero bets £14.63
    Villain calls

    Turn 5h

    Villain checks
    Hero bets £30
    Villain calls

    River 5d

    Villain goes all-in, so its another £159 to call
    I have been pondering this hand for a couple of days and am still wondering whether I should have made a hero call on the end. 
    I just don't think Nosebleed plays anything except a big draw or a true monster (ie: flopped full house) this way.........and if he was on the draw and is bluffing on the end he hasn't picked a great spot as he really should think I have an overpair.
    Could he really have had 88, 89 or even 99 and flopped an absolute monster. Surely the board is too wet to just call twice if he "only" has trips.
    I'm still puzzled !!
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  • corn_rat22corn_rat22
    edited July 2011
    NO.
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  • AMYBRAMYBR
    edited July 2011
    No and I dont fully get why you inflate the pot this way.  Only essentialy bad cards are Q and K, no point betting A high here at turn as you know you cant counter the heat.

    I dont think I bet so large either.  Is that a full pot bet on flop?  then 3/4+ pot turn?
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  • arniesarmyarniesarmy
    edited July 2011
    In Response to Re: Does anyone make the hero call here?:
    No and I dont fully get why you inflate the pot this way.  Only essentialy bad cards are Q and K, no point betting A high here at turn as you know you cant counter the heat. I dont think I bet so large either.  Is that a full pot bet on flop?  then 3/4+ pot turn?
    Posted by AMYBR

    My mistake, flop bet was actually 3/4 pot, ie: £14.63, then turn bet was £30, into £49, so around 60% of the pot.

    I'm representing the overpair and I think he is either drawing or holding a small/medium pair once he checks a second time on the turn. If he has a hand like A9 I expect him to check-raise here, so my turn bet is fairly strong to again represent the overpair and make him fold if he does just have a pair and maybe if he has some sort of weak draw. If he comes back with the check-raise then I am of course folding.

    Of course I accept that I am beating nothing on the river, but my point is that I think he either has exactly that - nothing - or a flopped full house. Surely its too wet a board to play A9 or 109 like that and surely he wouldn't shove on the end with any sort of "medium strength" hand, such as 1010 ? He must think an overpair is my most likely holding.... so I think his most likely holding is the flopped house, and he thinks I will call with say KK, or he has a busted draw and thinks he can get me to fold.

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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited July 2011
    does he play big draws that passively?

    c/c, c/c, shove is an unusual line from a good player

    I think prob fold, some of his draws split with you, but I would agree he is normally really polarised here
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