50NL: Fistpump call?

grantorino

Villain 24/22/3.5 with 3bet 8 over only 40 hands. Havent noticed him getting out of line, and havent really clashed with him. For those of you who dont use stats that means he seems to be a decent TAG but not enough hands to judge

My image would be aggro, Ive taken down a good few pots without showdown

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($51)
SB ($26.60)
BB ($62.05)
Hero (UTG) ($81.85)
MP ($67.10)
CO ($49.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q
Hero bets $2, 4 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 2d, Ad, Ah (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

Turn: ($10.25) 6h (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.50, BB calls $7.50

River: ($25.25) 3s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $15.50, BB raises $49.55 (All-In),

GREGHOGG

In Response to 50NL: Fistpump call?:

Villain 24/22/3.5 with 3bet 8 over only 40 hands. Havent noticed him getting out of line, and havent really clashed with him. For those of you who dont use stats that means he seems to be a decent TAG but not enough hands to judge My image would be aggro, Ive taken down a good few pots without showdown No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com Button ($51) SB ($26.60) BB ($62.05) Hero (UTG) ($81.85) MP ($67.10) CO ($49.75) Preflop : Hero is UTG with A, Q Hero bets $2 , 4 folds , BB calls $1.50 Flop : ($4.25) 2d, Ad, Ah (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $3 , BB calls $3 Turn : ($10.25) 6h (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $7.50 , BB calls $7.50 River : ($25.25) 3s (2 players) BB checks, Hero bets $15.50 , BB raises $49.55 (All-In) ,
Posted by grantorino

what do the numbers mean please? ive never used a holdem manager thingy

onto the hand itself, the villian can have AK, 66, 22 maybe A6/A3??. or busted fd. Doubt it is PURE air but you neva know!

I think its a call on balance due to your agro image and that you think he is a decent TAG. If your likely gonna play him again i think its important to call here to find out whats going on lol

Wouldnt say it was fistpump call at all.

grantorino

24% money voluntarily put in pot
22% raise pre
3.5 aggression factor, this is quite high but not super aggro
8% 3bet

Theres not really enough hands for these stats to mean much (especially the last 2) but they indicate he's prob not a fish

I would think he will 3bet AK pre a high percentge of the time, or if not he would prob raise flop or turn. A2, A6 unlikely to flat my utg open oop imo. Not often a bluff either imo, I doubt he knows enough about me to think I might fold Ax 

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call?:

24% money voluntarily put in pot 22% raise pre 3.5 aggression factor, this is quite high but not super aggro 8% 3bet Theres not really enough hands for these stats to mean much (especially the last 2) but they indicate he's prob not a fish I would think he will 3bet AK pre a high percentge of the time, or if not he would prob raise flop or turn. A2, A6 unlikely to flat my utg open oop imo. Not often a bluff either imo, I doubt he knows enough about me to think I might fold Ax 
Posted by grantorino

so its pretty much 22 or 66 then? C/r on river is pretty strong!

also on 6 max cash what would you say the perfect percentages should be for vpip, raise pre, and agression factor?

did you call? I think i woulda done just to see what hes up to! and then make a massive note.

grantorino

I did call.

Its normally 22, 66 overvalued Ax  or less likely a bluff. On very rare occasions it will be AK,A2,A6

His stats look pretty good. It varies obv with playing style. Tag rgs are often around 22/19/2 with 3bet 7%

GREGHOGG

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call?:

I did call. Its normally 22, 66 overvalued Ax  or less likely a bluff. On very rare occasions it will be AK,A2,A6 His stats look pretty good. It varies obv with playing style. Tag rgs are often around 22/19/2 with 3bet 7%
Posted by grantorino

ye i considered this also, im relieved im thinking along the right lines lol

will you be telling us the result?

rancid

All them figures got me confused, but you can't fold can you
What percentage of the time will he flip over KK, QQ, AJ, Ax

who knows I feel your pain

feels like 33 just got there but could be last ditch overvalued Ax

grantorino

He will flip over KK,QQ close to never (I would think never tbh)

AMYBR

How much does your image come into play in hand?

Is he capable of repping the hand that your holding, disguised by your bets?

I ask as its going to be hard for him to put you on Apic given that you've barrelled 3 streets, from such a dry flop.  Does your aggro image have the potential to generate some funky river bluff?

grantorino

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call?:

How much does your image come into play in hand? Is he capable of repping the hand that your holding, disguised by your bets? I ask as its going to be hard for him to put you on Apic given that you've barrelled 3 streets, from such a dry flop.  Does your aggro image have the potential to generate some funky river bluff?
Posted by AMYBR

This hand is actually from a good while back, so I cant remember the details of how I was playing. I'm pretty sure I was just barrelling a lot , definitely didnt showdown any bluffs. Certainly I wouldnt have been so aggro that I mightnt just have been running good  Dont think he expects me to triple barrell air here but not too sure obv

I dont see why its so hard for him to put me on a big ace, bet/bet/bet wouldnt be an unusual line with trips  for regs in this game (He mightnt know if I'm a reg, but hes prob using a hud so will have stats on me)

Edit: I doubt hes calling flop, and turn with air to set up a river bluff, and if he has a pair he prob just flats because I doubt he expects me to show up with something like QQ here

Edit2: I suppose he could have missed diamonds

rancid

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call?:

He will flip over KK,QQ close to never (I would think never tbh)
Posted by grantorino

Suppose if he tag then it's a crazy bluff to pull but hey ho it would work what percentage of the time though.
He would have to be certain you would fold to a possbile FH. This soley depends on your image and more importantly your ability to lay down trips. This kinda move only would work v a very very good tight player.

So essentially some of the replies cry 33,66 A2, all have you beat. So this bluff would work probably v a lot players

So is this player cable of making this move - answer = no?
Is he more likey to show AK - yes , FH very possible
or will he show Ax which you beat

Just a crying call init:D

grantorino

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call?:

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call? : Suppose if he tag then it's a crazy bluff to pull but hey ho it would work what percentage of the time though. He would have to be certain you would fold to a possbile FH. This soley depends on your image and more importantly your ability to lay down trips. This kinda move only would work v a very very good tight player. So essentially some of the replies cry 33,66 A2, all have you beat. So this bluff would work probably v a lot players So is this player cable of making this move - answer = no? Is he more likey to show AK - yes , FH very possible or will he show Ax which you beat Just a crying call init:D
Posted by rancid

I would think he hasnt seen enough of my play to try bluff me off an ace. Trying to bluff close to unknown players (he probably has enough stats from hands hes played to know Im not a complete fish but thats all really) off trips is usually a really bad idea. Its also much easier fold this in theory on a forum than at the table

I called mainly because the range beats me is really small, AK prob 3bets pre, he might often raise a flopped boat, Arag that made a boat is prob not in his range ( certainly dont think he ever has Arag offsuit), 33 wont make the river usually. Its possible he overvalues smaller As or less likely he is bluffing. Still not sure I like the call

LOL_RAISE

more of a fold than a call imo. our range is so strong here that bluffing is really dumb. and if he is a reg hes never jamming worse for value

rancid

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call?:

Its also much easier fold this in theory on a forum than at the table I called mainly because the range beats me is really small,
Posted by grantorino

Within the short time span on the table it's a crying call i think, if you could think about for a few minutes then maybe you could fold

grantorino

in case anyone is interested he had AJ

YOUNG_GUN

I assumed he had AJ or worse by your title lol

otherwise i would have leaned towards FH as played, also the stats are not really that valid over a small sample doesn't really say he's playing solid or anything

donkeyplop

I'm prety tight but I am fistpump calling here!

DeuceAK_47

In hindsight.. it's an easy fold, I  would of bet $25 on the river and still folded.

The Villian played this hand really bad though imo:

-Probably should of folded AJ in the BB from the UTG raise.

-If their going to c raise they should of done it on the turn. (personally i would of folded the river)

As most tags i play with are not even value betting the river with anything lower than aq+(they also only have afew aces in their Utg range worst than AJ...mainly A5-A2S),they would only bet 1/2 pot or smaller if they did value bet the river most of the time and are hardly ever bluffing this river. 

grantorino

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call?:

In hindsight it's an easy fold, I  would of bet $25 on the river and still folded. The Villian played this hand really bad though imo: -Probably should of folded AJ in the BB from the UTG raise. -If their going to c raise they should of done it on the turn. (personally i would of folded the river) As most tags i play with are not even value betting the river with anything lower than aq+(they also only have afew aces in their Utg range worst than AJ...mainly A5-A2S),they would only bet 1/2 pot or smaller if they did value bet the river most of the time and are hardly ever bluffing this river. 
Posted by DeuceAK-47

I dont think its that easy a fold, I've only 40 hands on him, stats arent reliable. I agree he usually shouldnt have worse, but he usually shouldnt have many better hands either

DeuceAK_47

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call?:

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call? : I dont think its that easy a fold, I've only 40 hands on him, stats arent reliable. I agree he usually shouldnt have worse, but he usually shouldnt have many better hands either
Posted by grantorino

He still has A2S, A3S, A6S, 22, 66 and AK (might not 3bet AK Vr UTG opening range) in their range.

I agree that 40 hands is not that reliable for most stats but even after 40 hands with these stats they will usually be either an LAG or TAG, a passive fish would never have these stats and a maniac does not care about cards so their vpip would usually be higher after 40 hands.

Most likely some bad TAG thats watched a few training site videos but does not how to apply the simple concepts. :-)

grantorino

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call?:

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call? : He still has A2S, A3S, A6S, 22, 66 and AK (might not 3bet AK Vr UTG opening range) in their range. I agree that 40 hands is not that reliable for most stats but even after 40 hands with these stats they will usually be either an LAG or TAG, a passive fish would never have these stats and a maniac does not care about cards so their vpip would usually be higher after 40 hands. Most likely some bad TAG thats watched a few training site videos but does not how to apply the simple concepts. :-)
Posted by DeuceAK-47

Thats 15 combos of hands. 4 are Ak which I'd think he 3bets pre a lot, Theres 5 of the suited Ax which are not in most tags calling range oop hu to an utg raise. 6 of sets other than that. He will also sometimes raise these on flop and turn. Even including 3 of the 9 others which is generous imo he doesnt have to shove many hands that I beat to make it a call

I'm not sure whether I should have called or not, but I cant see how its an easy fold

DeuceAK_47

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call?:

In Response to Re: 50NL: Fistpump call? : Thats 15 combos of hands. 4 are Ak which I'd think he 3bets pre a lot, Theres 5 of the suited Ax which are not in most tags calling range oop hu to an utg raise. 6 of sets other than that. He will also sometimes raise these on flop and turn. Even including 3 of the 9 others which is generous imo he doesnt have to shove many hands that I beat to make it a call I'm not sure whether I should have called or not, but I cant see how its an easy fold
Posted by grantorino

To an UTG raise villain is probably folding ATo, So the only hand their raising here is most likely AJ and maybe ATs, i personally think only 10% of tags at 50nl will raise AJ here on the river so there are hardly any combos of hands that you beat.

Alot of tags would raise sets on the turn but if the villain is slowplaying AJ or worst in this spot their going to be slowplaying alot of better hands to.

I didnt really mean it was an easy fold as in my first post i said in hindsight, i just meant it was an intresting hand which looked like a snap call but once you went through the hand it seemed like a fold was the right decision.

If this hand came up on Sky Poker i think i would call as the stupid timebar goes down too fast lol.