river decision ~275 bbs deep

yb

Playing £1/2 live. Villain is a fish, and has made a point of showing me that he plays any 2 suited cards preflop, and finds it very hard to fold when he makes a pair. Me and him have been involved in a number of pots heads up to the flop and he won ~75bbs just after he arrived when he c/shoved a Q86 board with Q6s after limp/calling my preflop raise. Also he potted the river twice previously, both times having rivered the nuts, and seems to bet weaker with more marginal hands. He doesn't fold draws on the flop/turn, normally c/cing them but all the other times were in raised pots.

All the other players at the table (with the exception of 1 other who is not involved in the hand) are tight passive pretty much.

In the hand I have around £550 and villain has me covered. Playing 9 handed and I hold 2h 2s.

Preflop:
Villain (utg) calls £2
Utg +1 calls £2
Hero (utg +2) calls £2
3 more calls, BB checks.

Flop (Td 9s 2d):
Villain bets £9
Utg+1 calls £9
Hero raises to £31
4 folds
Villain calls £22
Utg +1 folds

Turn (7h):
Villain bets £75
Hero calls £75

River (Qc)
Villain bets £280
Hero ?

My flop raise should be bigger imo, but what are your thoughts on the turn call / river decision?

Batkin88

i would have him drawing from his betsizing throughout the hand, however the str8 he could of hit but could easily be a busted flush i would on the basis your winning this hand 66% as your beating QJ and the flush draw but 8 9 which can be put in his range with bet sizing aswell your losing to.
For the record i would be raising the turn here then u would be able to define his hand better on the river

AMYBR

Firstly I like the sizing of flop bet for a number of reasons.  As deep as your sat, you want 3 streets here, re evaluating if a D filler shows up, but keeping parties interested.  Sizing looks proby/drawy concealing the true strength of your hand.

This kind of hand vs this kind of opponent is my bread and butter.

On turn he bets nearly full pot right?  Then villain overbets river?  £280 into £229?

The only thing that is going through my mind on river is something along these lines "Opponent has obviously (from what you say) noticed I'm paying attention to everything he's doing, he's showed how selectively spewy he has played with intent (again from what you say in OP).  Is he good enough to manipulate bet sizes to someone HE KNOWS is paying attention".

So is he spewing, based upon the fact he thinks you cant call, or is he extracting value after noticing that you've been watching?

With a river bet size of this amount its likely only a bigger set of bluff (occasionaly 2pr).  But if he's read his customer right (if he is able to do so??) then I'd have to worry about being on the wrong side of 9's.

However from description you have given, he may hold JQ, but from what you say he is more likely to c/c turn.

Again, I think I flat here also (turn) given stacks and implied odds of him favourably missing draws/redraws and firing again, then being pot stuck with 2pr/tptk.

I dont think he leads this strong at turn with a draw, plus he had to stay in off flop with something interesting.  Also I think player type you describe 3 bet range finds a hand your dominating off flop (over pair/2pr/tptk).

Taking everything you've said into account, I do shove the river as flatting doesnt seem right given size of pot.  But I do feel that there is a likely hood its a cooler, set over set, likely 99, QQ in opponents hand, rarely KJ, but may fit bill given your description on player.  But we are beating enough of his supposed range to feel justified in getting it in, being aware there is a relative chance its a cooler.  Given how hand plays 8xJD would be my biggest concern.

If I am beat I reload, refuse to play a hand for 5/6  hands (unless special).  Try and shrug it off then punish him for stacks later on (hopefully).

yb

tbh I only called turn because I wasn't confident getting stacks in that deep. I think when he bets the pot on the turn his range is really strong given reads, and I have position so I think calling >>>> raising at that stage.

fwiw on the river my decision was between folding and calling rather than between calling and shoving. What hands do you put him on if you're happy shoving the river?

grantorino

I'm raising pre here.

Turn idk, I probably just raise and try get it in, it sounds like he calls with pair+draw type hands, which he can easily have here  

call river imo, he can have tonnes of 2 pair hands, but I'm not very surprised if you are beat here

AMYBR

In Response to Re: river decision ~275 bbs deep:

tbh I only called turn because I wasn't confident getting stacks in that deep. I think when he bets the pot on the turn his range is really strong given reads, and I have position so I think calling />>>> raising at that stage. fwiw on the river my decision was between folding and calling rather than between calling and shoving. What hands do you put him on if you're happy shoving the river?
Posted by yb

Am not "happy" shoving river.  But pot stands at £789 - when flatting -(?) you having £171 back (ish), this seems right from what stack sizes you describe?

As said, I'd very much have an overset on my mind, or perhaps 8xJd.  But I think its equally likely opponent has got himself pot stuck with 2pr.

I'm not hugely sure am winning on river here for all reasons stated.  But I dont like just calling river.  With a strong read you can elect to fold, but not to really just call IMO.  Once you flat turn IP opponent's first instinct is going to fire river again, not wanting to give up pot.

But as stated, I think there is potential to be snapped.  Shoving mainly to extract value from pot stuck 2prs vs semi spewbox.  Its either a nut hand/2pr or 1pr missed draw turned into bluff IMO.  Clear lines being seen for each.  Without a strong feeling to a read on opponent nut hand your paying him off for the £280 on river, given potsize £170 more isnt going to make a great deal of difference.  Extracting value from all 2pr/tptk pot stuck hands as he cant fold.  Never having to show hand when opponent is bluffing.

yb

I think he would call with pair + draw type hands but I don't think he's going to be pot donking the turn with them all that often at all. I mean maybe with something like 9d8d he might.

I think raising pre would normally be best, but there was a european to my left who was 3bet happy and I'd rather just limp/call to keep the fish is who's gonna c/c with any draw/pair.

AMYBR

yeah the pot sizing is what makes me worry most about the overset, especially as you say he wont fold draws, commenting that he is most likely c/c'ing rather than leading (this strong).

But given that he has the range that you mention its going to be hard not to pay him off.  As said, he has to be in off flop with something. That should be where we have the best scope to find his range, adding layers with pot size bets oop.

huuuuume

is villain likely to limp pre with 99 1010 QQ?
i know he is utg but would expect him to be raising here certainly with 1010 QQ (would he ever limp reraise?)

could he have turned the set with 77? 
it is a draw heavy flop...do you often raise with draws? is he good enough to know?


does he reraise the flop if he has 10 9?

most worried about 77 and J8 but think in this spot there is far too much in his range for us to be folding.  i prob call but like the argument for the reraise cos it sounds like there is a lot in his range that you beat that he is never folding

AMYBR

C'mon then VB, how did it pan out?

Hope you took it fwiw.

yb

He's not going to be limping in with TT/QQ I don't think, and I also don't think he's paying that much attention to my range either. He can stack off with T9 on the flop but as played I was pretty confident the 7 had improved his hand. Given his line and previous reads I folded.

And my alias is yb not vb fwiw amybr

AMYBR

lol my bad, horrible eyesight.

Dont hate the fold.