All Categories› Poker› Poker Chat

You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.

You might need to refresh your page afterwards.

Sky Poker forums will be temporarily unavailable from 11pm Wednesday July 25th.
Sky Poker Forums is upgrading its look! Stay tuned for the big reveal!

The turn card...

StupormanStuporman
edited July 2011 in Poker Chat
When the flop is double suited, the probability of the turn card being the same suit is 11 in 47 (or 23.4%).
Over the last day or two I counted 80 instances of double suited flops, and the turn card completed the flush possibility no less than 46 times (a staggering 57.5%).
I only did this sad-ass study because it did seem way too often this was happening, oh and lo and behold they always happen to have the 2 diamonds in their hand, which actually decreases the probability to 20%!
Is it just me, or is nearly three times the statistical probability a little too excessive?
Just a freak, or is there a problem with this RNG?
· Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Comments

  • iBLUFFiBLUFF
    edited July 2011
    In Response to The turn card...:
    When the flop is double suited, the probability of the turn card being the same suit is 11 in 47 (or 23.4%). Over the last day or two I counted 80 instances of double suited flops, and the turn card completed the flush possibility no less than 46 times (a staggering 57.5%). I only did this sad-ass study because it did seem way too often this was happening, oh and lo and behold they always happen to have the 2 diamonds in their hand, which actually decreases the probability to 20%! Is it just me, or is nearly three times the statistical probability a little too excessive? Just a freak, or is there a problem with this RNG?
    Posted by Stuporman
    If you were mulit tableing then its obv going to seem to be happening alot, when in reality its not. Dont get me wrong im not saying i dont belive you, just saying it is a high%. But it can happen, as RNG doesnt have a memory , so its just another hand.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited July 2011
    In Response to The turn card...:
    When the flop is double suited, the probability of the turn card being the same suit is 11 in 47 (or 23.4%). Over the last day or two I counted 80 instances of double suited flops, and the turn card completed the flush possibility no less than 46 times (a staggering 57.5%). I only did this sad-ass study because it did seem way too often this was happening, oh and lo and behold they always happen to have the 2 diamonds in their hand, which actually decreases the probability to 20%! Is it just me, or is nearly three times the statistical probability a little too excessive? Just a freak, or is there a problem with this RNG?
    Posted by Stuporman
    Armed with this information you should be making a staggering profit.

    From my own personal experience, i've hit it less times that I care to remember, but when I have hit it, it has had massive rewards.

    Does your study include the chances of hitting the flush on the River also?
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited July 2011
    No it isnt JUST you as i multi-table and single table but i see a very high% of this , but tbf as they are pre-determined hands there may well be a vast amount of these in the rng and on occasions i would expect the rng to randomly give a high% of this kind xxx
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • scotty77scotty77
    edited July 2011
    wow a sample of 80.

    you do realise that you need a sample of hundreds of thousands, or even millions, for variance to start to even out.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • grantorinograntorino
    edited July 2011
    are the hands really predetermined? Wasnt my understanding of how it works, at least on other sites
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • BrownnDogBrownnDog
    edited July 2011
    Yeah I heard flushes become more often when playing from a 50bb stack. FYL.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • pr1nnyraidpr1nnyraid
    edited July 2011
    Yesterday I was playing roulette on skyvegas, i had a £10 bet equally covering about 23.4% of the board, i repeated the bet 80 times and ended up winning about 57.5% of spins, a miracle you might say.

    Anyway I just did the same thing again and it didnt happen again.. You get the point.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited July 2011
    In Response to Re: The turn card...:
    are the hands really predetermined? Wasnt my understanding of how it works, at least on other sites
    Posted by grantorino
    YES but there are billions of them and they are produced randomly , what i stated was there is a chance the rng could randomly distribute a high% at any given time xx
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • grantorinograntorino
    edited July 2011
    In Response to Re: The turn card...:
    In Response to Re: The turn card... : YES but there are billions of them and they are produced randomly , what i stated was there is a chance the rng could randomly distribute a high% at any given time xx
    Posted by debdobs_67
    I understand your post. Are you sure though all these hands are predetermined? How do you know this?
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited July 2011
    In Response to Re: The turn card...:
    In Response to Re: The turn card... : I understand your post. Are you sure though all these hands are predetermined? How do you know this?
    Posted by grantorino
    Its been stated on numerous occasions on plenty of threads over the past 2 years , nobody has ever ever came on the forum and said its untrue xxx
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • grantorinograntorino
    edited July 2011
    In Response to Re: The turn card...:
    In Response to Re: The turn card... : Its been stated on numerous occasions on plenty of threads over the past 2 years , nobody has ever ever came on the forum and said its untrue xxx
    Posted by debdobs_67
    In area 51??

    I've seen this discussed on different forums and that was not what most people seemed to think (not about this site though). I dont know, wouldnt make sense to me that they be all there waiting to be dealt rather than just randomised at every street s hand is played. Not saying your wrong debs, just read elsewhere it worked differently, obv it could work differently for differerent sites
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • DazlerDazler
    edited July 2011
    ya its a bummer
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    Nemesis140 Small blind   15.00 15.00 4840.00
    Dazler Big blind   30.00 45.00 3470.00
      Your hole cards
    • J
    • J
    		     
    Giant811 Call   30.00 75.00 5330.00
    triple08 Call   30.00 105.00 11855.00
    stevebob05 Fold        
    hogan02 Call   30.00 135.00 4640.00
    Nemesis140 Call   15.00 150.00 4825.00
    Dazler Raise   120.00 270.00 3350.00
    Giant811 Call   120.00 390.00 5210.00
    triple08 Call   120.00 510.00 11735.00
    hogan02 Call   120.00 630.00 4520.00
    Nemesis140 Fold        
    Flop
       
    • 8
    • Q
    • 9
    		     
    Dazler Bet   300.00 930.00 3050.00
    Giant811 Fold        
    triple08 Fold        
    hogan02 All-in   4520.00 5450.00 0.00
    Dazler All-in   3050.00 8500.00 0.00
    hogan02 Unmatched bet   1170.00 7330.00 1170.00
    Dazler Show
    • J
    • J
    		     
    hogan02 Show
    • 2
    • 6
    		     
    Turn
       
    • 4
    		     
    River
       
    • 8
    		     
    hogan02 Win Flush to the Queen 7330.00   8500.00
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited July 2011
    In Response to Re: The turn card...:
    In Response to Re: The turn card... : In area 51?? I've seen this discussed on different forums and that was not what most people seemed to think (not about this site though). I dont know, wouldnt make sense to me that they be all there waiting to be dealt rather than just randomised at every street s hand is played. Not saying your wrong debs, just read elsewhere it worked differently, obv it could work differently for differerent sites
    Posted by grantorino
    Indeed alot of sites do continue shuffling the deck down the streets but this sites hands are defo pre-determined , doesnt really make any diff imo though cos as long as the hands are dealt randomely then there is NO advantage to any player at all xx
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • grantorinograntorino
    edited July 2011
    In Response to Re: The turn card...:
    In Response to Re: The turn card... : Indeed alot of sites do continue shuffling the deck down the streets but this sites hands are defo pre-determined , doesnt really make any diff imo though cos as long as the hands are dealt randomely then there is NO advantage to any player at all xx
    Posted by debdobs_67
    not really worried about how random it is, not suggesting its to anyones advantage. Just seems both less efficient and less secure imo
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • DazlerDazler
    edited July 2011
    other thing to add in is you have even less outs than stated as other players will be holing part of the suited cards them self so its less than 11 cards generally. The amount of players im seeing playing suited cards not even connected is staggering and all they do is play these in the hope to hit a flush and shove.
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited July 2011
    In Response to Re: The turn card...:
    In Response to Re: The turn card... : not really worried about how random it is, not suggesting its to anyones advantage. Just seems both less efficient and less secure imo
    Posted by grantorino
    See what ure saying but i think this site has top notch security in place , and i think that the continuous shuffling programmes are very very expensive xx
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • StupormanStuporman
    edited July 2011
    You just watch and see for yourself, it's truly amazing... just count them! It's ridiculous!
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • StupormanStuporman
    edited July 2011
    In Response to Re: The turn card...:
    No it isnt JUST you as i multi-table and single table but i see a very high% of this , but tbf as they are pre-determined hands there may well be a vast amount of these in the rng and on occasions i would expect the rng to randomly give a high% of this kind xxx
    Posted by debdobs_67
    I shudder to think that they actually ARE pre-determined hands! I was under the impression that there is a pseudo-shuffle at the beginning of every hand, thus making every hand truly random. There are just too many "exciting" or "amazing" hands for my liking though, like the ones where people call massive re-raises with 23 and flopping A45 against aces! Hmm, a bit too suspicious for me after the month I've had! People calling five-bets with Q4 suited against my kings and flopping a flush? Yeah right!
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited July 2011
    In Response to Re: The turn card...:
    In Response to Re: The turn card... : I shudder to think that they actually ARE pre-determined hands! I was under the impression that there is a pseudo-shuffle at the beginning of every hand, thus making every hand truly random. There are just too many "exciting" or "amazing" hands for my liking though, like the ones where people call massive re-raises with 23 and flopping A45 against aces! Hmm, a bit too suspicious for me after the month I've had! People calling five-bets with Q4 suited against my kings and flopping a flush? Yeah right!
    Posted by Stuporman
    They ARE pre-determined hands , fact xxx
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • simuksimuk
    edited July 2011
    Stuporman complaining about running bad? REALLY?!
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • DAVEYZZDAVEYZZ
    edited July 2011
    In Response to The turn card...:
    When the flop is double suited, the probability of the turn card being the same suit is 11 in 47 (or 23.4%). Over the last day or two I counted 80 instances of double suited flops, and the turn card completed the flush possibility no less than 46 times (a staggering 57.5%). I only did this sad-ass study because it did seem way too often this was happening, oh and lo and behold they always happen to have the 2 diamonds in their hand, which actually decreases the probability to 20%! Is it just me, or is nearly three times the statistical probability a little too excessive? Just a freak, or is there a problem with this RNG?
    Posted by Stuporman
    a couple of days isnt enough to study an anomaly but it will seem strange when it happens over a small sample of hands........

    the only problem with this sample is you always get someone moaning the opposite that "i had 80 flush draws and only 5 hit" e.t.c
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited July 2011
    i avoid the sky poker forums for like a year, log back in and see this thread - nothings changed :)
    · Share on FacebookShare on Twitter
Sign In or Register to comment.