Two pair on river but flush hits

F_Ivanovic

Hand History #395306418 (14:18 24/07/2011)PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceF_IvanovicSmall blind £1.50£1.50£431.14launderBig blind £3.00£4.50£606.28 Your hole cards9Q   GAZ744Fold    PEPEFold    F_IvanovicRaise £7.50£12.00£423.64launderCall £6.00£18.00£600.28Flop  389   F_IvanovicBet £13.50£31.50£410.14launderCall £13.50£45.00£586.78Turn  Q   F_IvanovicBet £33.75£78.75£376.39launderCall £33.75£112.50£553.03River  K   F_IvanovicBet £84.38£196.88£292.01launderRaise £432.00£628.88£121.03            

unknown_username

I am no where near your level, just thought i would say that before i post my opinion.

However, here goes, should you not be exorcising pot control by checking the river after the flush draw gets there? That way he bets for value making it a cheaper call. I think this is the reason you find yourself stuck with a real tricky decision as launder is well capablle of bluffing the flush here. Really hard but i find the fold i think, your betsizing looks like you could be drawing yourself so it would be a brave move from launder in this particular situation but youve only invested 140 quid or so and its going to cost you 350 quid for the call in which you are behind quite often i would of thought. Tough fold but i make it.

Glenelg

Relative newby to poker so any analysis would be a waste of time! BUT having watched some of your & launder's play on 865 over the last few months I (personally) can't see you folding this?
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percival09

b/f is fine, that way you can still get value from other hands he might be calling with, i do think this is a fold though, most draws have got there, but then again i don't know any reads you have on villain

Batkin88

He may have 67 and missed his draw but there are so many hands that beat you, if this happened at my level it would be reads dependent if they where lag and have had bluffs shown in the past on an often basis i would call.

F_Ivanovic

Quick bit of info: We are both v aggro players and especially upcoming to this hand we were playing very aggressive.

River is definitely 100% a bet because I would prob continue 100% of my bluffing range on such an awesome bluffing turn card/river card so know he will call me down very light. My thinking for calling his river shove is that he obv only does this with a flush for value and yet if he had a FD I expect him to raise the flop a large % of the time, and if not then on the turn a lot (since Q completes JT for straight he prob thinks he has a lot of fold equity)

Also I have the Q clubs reducing a lot of his potential FD combinations. As for what he could be bluffing with, he can definitely float the flop and turn with air/gutterballs and maybe turn some of his hands into a bluff. (like T9, 77, 66 etc) 

jgn

i think lauder has hit a straight here i putting him on 10j

LOL_RAISE

his betsize is retarded if he is bluffing

Batkin88

Going by what you have said and on how he has been betting i think you should call ....... Then he turns over    K Q lol

yb

In Response to Re: Two pair on river but flush hits:

his betsize is retarded if he is bluffing
Posted by LOL_RAISE

meh I think its fine, he's gonna be shoving all his value raising range here surely?

grantorino

interesting spot, I think its a fold, too many hands beat you and you can have a lot of big hands here too even allowing you are very active

Glenelg

In Response to Re: Two pair on river but flush hits:

Quick bit of info: We are both v aggro players and especially upcoming to this hand we were playing very aggressive. River is definitely 100% a bet because I would prob continue 100% of my bluffing range on such an awesome bluffing turn card/river card so know he will call me down very light. My thinking for calling his river shove is that he obv only does this with a flush for value and yet if he had a FD I expect him to raise the flop a large % of the time, and if not then on the turn a lot (since Q completes JT for straight he prob thinks he has a lot of fold equity) Also I have the Q clubs reducing a lot of his potential FD combinations. As for what he could be bluffing with, he can definitely float the flop and turn with air/gutterballs and maybe turn some of his hands into a bluff. (like T9, 77, 66 etc) 
Posted by F_Ivanovic

I guess I'm running against the regs here but I'm "confident" your winning this hand?

The more I look at it and seeing how you guys play at the BIG stakes the more confident I become.
xxx (That's fingers crossed BTW!) lol
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LOL_RAISE

In Response to Re: Two pair on river but flush hits:

In Response to Re: Two pair on river but flush hits : meh I think its fine, he's gonna be shoving all his value raising range here surely?
Posted by yb

risking 430 to win 195 roughly. so his bluffs have to work />66% of the time for it to be profitable, this combined with the fact that OP can easily have straights/flushes himself makes its kinda suicidal imo

yb

In Response to Re: Two pair on river but flush hits:

In Response to Re: Two pair on river but flush hits : risking 430 to win 195 roughly. so his bluffs have to work />66% of the time for it to be profitable, this combined with the fact that OP can easily have straights/flushes himself makes its kinda suicidal imo
Posted by LOL_RAISE

its actually ~ 375 to win 195 so the bluff has to work < 66 % of the time, but yeah you're right that a reg probably won't be bluffing very often here. Maybe if he has the Ac but idk how often the villain will float 2 streets on boards like this.

how did you get on in vegas btw? i must have missed the forum updates

LOL_RAISE

micashed a 1500 for 3.3 busted 2 others came 15/410 in a 350 ceasars for 1.4k which was so depressing, ian fraser went on to win it

ME - i played ok but probably approved it wrong strategy wise idk, busted day1.

overall +$3k inc. paying for months living expenses & losing 2x5k pots as a favorite

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: Two pair on river but flush hits:

his betsize is retarded if he is bluffing
Posted by LOL_RAISE

He was all in, it just happened to be that raise size?

Anyway I called and I won (he had J7)

I think I'm happy with my call thinking more about it because he knows how thin I can v-bet and probably thinks shoving would put me in a difficult position with a lot of my range. Thing is not a lot of players I know actually would bluff shove the river vs me because of that but I knew he was one of such players that would! 

yuranASSet

It's a great call and a very good play by launder also IMO. I've just logged on and this was the first post I seen. A great call because you have clearly realised that this is a call, because of how he has played it. He is a very good player capable of floating 2 streets with the intention of taking this pot away from you. But you have clearly realised that most time with JT or FD he would have check rasied you before the river. Hats off sir. But I still feel I bet this river, something, to keep the game easy.