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i won the hand but what should you do here....

robyoungrobyoung
edited August 2011 in The Poker Clinic
ChipsOTool Small blind  £0.05 £0.05 £11.27
etc Big blind  £0.10 £0.15 £23.12
  Your hole cards
  • 9
  • 9
     
robyoung Raise  £0.40 £0.55 £9.63
hitachi515 Call  £0.40 £0.95 £14.90
Delinho14 Fold     
passpat2- Fold     
ChipsOTool Raise  £3.00 £3.95 £8.27
etc Fold     
robyoung All-in  £9.63 £13.58 £0.00
hitachi515 Fold     
ChipsOTool Call  £6.98 £20.56 £1.29
ChipsOTool Show
  • K
  • A
   
robyoung Show
  • 9
  • 9
   
Flop
   
  • 9
  • 7
  • 6
     
Turn
   
  • K
     
River
   
  • A
     
robyoung Win Three 9s £19.16  £19.16
From my notes i had seen this player play ak this way before so i was 90% sure this is what he had, but with him 3betting this strong im not sure if i should have continued with this hand. I didnt want to call to see a flop coz im certain he cbets any flop, and any overcards would have left me with a tough decision, so should i have just mucked my 9's or was i right to shove?
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Comments

  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited August 2011
    How can you be 90% that he has AK?

    Can't he have TT/JJ/QQ/KK/AA ?

    I'd just fold.
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  • jenny_IYYjenny_IYY
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: i won the hand but what should you do here....:
    How can you be 90% that he has AK? Can't he have TT/JJ/QQ/KK/AA ? I'd just fold.
    Posted by DOHHHHHHH

    +1 on this

    You got lucky this time but in the long run this has to be a MASSIVE losing play
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  • salazarsalazar
    edited August 2011
    I think shoving with 99 overtime would lose you money, the hands that will call are higher pairs and AK, maybe AQ.
    You're at best flipping and more than likely a huge dog against an over pair. I don't like the call either for the reasons you said, especially as it's quite a big re-raise he/she has put in.


    Before you decided to shove you'd put 40p in, I don't think there's any harm in just throwing your cards away and moving on to the next hand.

    Shoving is better than calling, but a fold would be the best bet i think
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  • robyoungrobyoung
    edited August 2011
    id seen him play ak this way too many times, plus i know if he had aa or kk etc he doesnt 3bet this big, i could have been totally wrong but u know when u just have that feeling.... lol
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  • percival09percival09
    edited August 2011
    If you are certain he ONLY plays AK this way, i think getting it in is fine, but i don't see how you can be, are you also certain he doesn't play JJ/QQ this way? If so, fair enough ... but most of the time this is a clear fold
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited August 2011

    It's a common mistake at micros to just say "I put him on AK" - It's the best possible scenario and it gives you an excuse not to fold, and to find out what he's got.

    His bet size is pretty big I suppose, which makes it less likely to be AA/KK/QQ, but could still be TT or JJ.


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  • robyoungrobyoung
    edited August 2011

    my decision to shove was totally player dependant, if i knew nothing of him i would have snap folded, and i had been raising quite a bit before hand so i think he was trying to take a stand agaisnt me. I think from everyones input its a definate fold next time tho lol thanks for the advice ;)

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  • baggsbaggs
    edited August 2011
    Lol massively overestimating peoples ability. -EV folding 99 at this level
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  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited August 2011
    Well im gonna give ya credit for this as ive played this kinda hand ultra aggresive when im cert im ahead so vwp vs this oppo imo xx

    Also is the call from AK vs this shove not really the best play in the world??
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  • ybyb
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: i won the hand but what should you do here....:
    Lol massively overestimating peoples ability. -EV folding 99 at this level
    Posted by baggs
    folding has an EV of 0
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: i won the hand but what should you do here....:
    Lol massively overestimating peoples ability. -EV folding 99 at this level
    Posted by baggs
    What range do you give the 3bettor?

    I would say in general players between 10nl and 40nl have worse than 99 or TJo about 1% of the time here.
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  • AMYBRAMYBR
    edited August 2011
    Dynamic and player dependant.

    Interesting question to the folders though..Do you fold QQ/JJ here?

    I dont hate the jam with a good feel for opponents tendancies.  I dont like flipping though so I likely fold pre or call, getting it in on flop with insurance. 

    Opting to race dispro pots on an at best 50/50 basis is a iffy proposition generally though sir.  But if your confident of the strength of your read and are happy to flip I dont mind it.

    NH
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  • ybyb
    edited August 2011
    readless I'd fold JJ at 10nl and feel pretty happy about it, QQ I'd get in
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  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: i won the hand but what should you do here....:
    readless I'd fold JJ at 10nl and feel pretty happy about it, QQ I'd get in
    Posted by yb
    What about my point here ?? 4xbb raise then oppo ramps it up and then 4xbb raiser sticks the lot in , AK still look gd to this player ??
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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited August 2011
    If your read is that he doesnt play any of the overpairs this way shoving is fine. Thats a very specific read though and usually you cant just put him on AK you need to put him on  a range of hands. Even if you know he doesnt do it with KK+, you need to know what he does with TT-QQ and also can he do it with weaker hands. Without a very good read its a clear fold imo
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  • AMYBRAMYBR
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: i won the hand but what should you do here....:
    In Response to Re: i won the hand but what should you do here.... : What about my point here ?? 4xbb raise then oppo ramps it up and then 4xbb raiser sticks the lot in , AK still look gd to this player ??
    Posted by debdobs_67
    Sorry debobs, only read the OP, am hugely behind on the backlog :)

    Yeah its a good question.  Dont think i can 3 bet fold to the 4 bet given stacks.  If both sat reasonably deeper I pretty much auto fold once the utg comes back for significant action.  Once the 3 squid goes in I'm never folding in this spot though.  Hope your well madam :p
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  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: i won the hand but what should you do here....:
    In Response to Re: i won the hand but what should you do here.... : Sorry debobs, only read the OP, am hugely behind on the backlog :) Yeah its a good question.  Dont think i can 3 bet fold to the 4 bet given stacks.  If both sat reasonably deeper I pretty much auto fold once the utg comes back for significant action.  Once the 3 squid goes in I'm never folding in this spot though.  Hope your well madam :p
    Posted by AMYBR
    Hi amybr thnx for your point of view her and hope ure gd too xx
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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: i won the hand but what should you do here....:
    Well im gonna give ya credit for this as ive played this kinda hand ultra aggresive when im cert im ahead so vwp vs this oppo imo xx Also is the call from AK vs this shove not really the best play in the world??
    Posted by debdobs_67
    Its a million times better than 3betting massive then folding
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  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8
    edited August 2011
    Snap fold for me, I can't understand how you can be 90% sure he has AK.
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  • labrat64labrat64
    edited August 2011
    There are some good replies to this question, but sometimes you have to play the player and if your instinct is that strong against a certain player then go for it. IMO you played it fine against this particular player
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited August 2011
    For me that has got to be an instant fold. The odds of you winning the showdown are going to be just over 50% at best and 20% in the worst case.

    I can't see how that is a profitable play. Even if you could read him like a book and you could say 100% he definitely had AK, do you want an almost coin flip for your 100BB stack?

    EDIT: Well, 90BBs of your stack as you have a slightly bigger stack.
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