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It happens Live too

JockBMWJockBMW
edited August 2011 in Area 51
Last night I was playing in a live tournament at my local casino.

The guy to my right got dealt Pocket Kings 3 times in a row.  Each time it was a different pair of suited Kings,  The dealer in question is top quality and as honest as the day is long.

Just in case any one is interested in knowing what the odds of that happening are it's 10,793,861 to 1 ......  against

And the lad got customers each hand and went from 3K chips,  ( average at the time was 12K ) to 39K.  He went out on the bubble later on.

Can you image the reaction if that had happened on line  lol  

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Comments

  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited August 2011
    and your trying to prove what exactly?


    ..... that a 10 million to one hand comes up approx. every 10 million hands?






    much bigger sample size needed to prove anything ........ or nothing as the case may be.
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  • DOHHHHHHHDOHHHHHHH
    edited August 2011

    I've never seen that happen online.

    Dealer obviously hasn't shuffled them properly.

    I'da complained to the casino manager.
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  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited August 2011
    Ive often had the exact hole cards dealt 3 times in a row , not kings but the odds are far greater for the exact cards being dealt like this , but this was indeed online xx
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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited August 2011
    I got dealt K7, AQ, 83 in 3 successive hands. The odds of this are roughly 1 in 569,208. Rigged?
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  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: It happens Live too:
    I got dealt K7, AQ, 83 in 3 successive hands. The odds of this are roughly 1 in 569,208. Rigged?
    Posted by grantorino
    Fold ,raise and fold the last one.

    Hope this helps
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  • NoseyBonkNoseyBonk
    edited August 2011
    In Response to It happens Live too:
    Last night I was playing in a live tournament at my local casino. The guy to my right got dealt Pocket Kings 3 times in a row.  Each time it was a different pair of suited Kings,  The dealer in question is top quality and as honest as the day is long. Just in case any one is interested in knowing what the odds of that happening are it's 10,793,861 to 1 ......  against And the lad got customers each hand and went from 3K chips,  ( average at the time was 12K ) to 39K.  He went out on the bubble later on. Can you image the reaction if that had happened on line  lol  
    Posted by JockBMW
    Actually your calcs are slightly out (221 vs 220) mwuahahahaha ;-)

    It should also be pointed out that these are the odds against getting dealt that hand sequence three times in a row IN THE FUTURE    . ie If you had KK in the last hand you're still 220:1 against for this hand, and so-on-and-so-on for hands three onwards.

     
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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited August 2011
    ^^^^^^^^^^^
    pretty sure Jocks calcs are correct nosey.Its 1 in 221 to be dealt KK I think? (4C2/52C2)
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  • NoseyBonkNoseyBonk
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: It happens Live too:
    ^^^^^^^^^^^ pretty sure Jocks calcs are correct nosey.Its 1 in 221 to be dealt KK I think? (4C2/52C2)
    Posted by grantorino
    Probability 1 in 221 but odds against 220:1 :-)
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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited August 2011
    I know this is area 51, but if his calcs are wrong I'd like to know why, they seem fine to me
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  • NoseyBonkNoseyBonk
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: It happens Live too:
    I know this is area 51, but if his calcs are wrong I'd like to know why, they seem fine to me
    Posted by grantorino
    Sorry I thought I'd explained - it's because the calc was based on odds of 221:1 (which gives 10,793,861:1) rather than the correct odds of 220:1 which would result in 10,648,000:1
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  • JockBMWJockBMW
    edited August 2011
    Hi Nosey,

    here is how I calculated the odds.

    For a specific pair,  i.e. Kings in this situation.  

    The odds of the first card is 4/52  4 kings in the deck  52 cards in the pack

    The odds of the second King being dealt is 3 / 51  as there are only 3 kings left and 51 cards left in the pack.

    To calculate the oddds of a pair of kings you multiply the two odds togeather  which gives odds of 12 / 2,652

    I then divided 2,652 by 12  which gives the odds of 221 / 1 

    However when you invert the odds, you need to substrct 1.. which I forgot.  this does infact give you odds of 220/1  You were right Elliott.  I stand corrected  good sir.  

    Still pretty bloody amaing though ;o)


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  • grantorinograntorino
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: It happens Live too:
    In Response to Re: It happens Live too : Sorry I thought I'd explained - it's because the calc was based on odds of 221:1 (which gives 10,793,861:1)  rather than the correct odds of 220:1 which would result in 10,648,000:1
    Posted by NoseyBonk
    Sorry for being really pedantic but I'm no tsure thats correct. I understand that a probability of 1/221 is basically a ratio or odds of 220:1

    The probability of getting KK 3 times ina row is 1/10,793,861 (1/221 cubed), is that correct? Surely that means the odds are 10,793,860:1

    I'm prob being really dumb, if so can someone correct me
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  • NoseyBonkNoseyBonk
    edited August 2011
    I'm sure you're not being dumb, I think I am - multiplying the odds instead of probabilities. Apologies.
    I have an excuse though. Strongbow. It's DOHHHHHHH's fault he told me to keep drinking it.


    Now move along everyone, nothing to see here ........... redface .......... Now if I was still a mod I would delete all the posts above & no one would ever know haha :-)
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  • igimcigimc
    edited August 2011
    I wished someone would have,i've just lost five minutes of my life
    that i'll never see again,but doesn't really matter because i've now
    lost the will to live.

    thanks
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  • JockBMWJockBMW
    edited August 2011
    Ok,

    The odds of someone getting dealt Pocket Kings, 3 times in row is....... Pretty unlikely  ;o)


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  • NoseyBonkNoseyBonk
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: It happens Live too:
    I wished someone would have,i've just lost five minutes of my life that i'll never see again,but doesn't really matter because i've now lost the will to live. thanks
    Posted by igimc
    Spare a thought for the moderators of this forum who have a duty to read all the rubbish posted in here! ....
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  • debdobs_67debdobs_67
    edited August 2011
    In Response to Re: It happens Live too:
    In Response to Re: It happens Live too : Spare a thought for the moderators of this forum who have a duty to read ALL the rubbish posted in here! ....
    Posted by NoseyBonk
    Hey that aint fair i only post 95% rubbish in here , now thats hardly ALL is it ;))
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