2nd set: Can you put someone on top set, and fold?

salad24

Right, tricky spot here in a DYM game, do i fold?!?!

I am UTG and Raise 2x (the reason this is a small raise is because earlier i raised 3x with my QQ and got no action), i get a call and a re-raise, which in these games 90% of the time means 2 things: AA or KK, but cant rule out an AK.

Now i call, and hit second set (which surprisingly i am not happy about after thinking this guy has AA or KK) villain checks to me so i place a very small bet, thinking villain would raise with AK and just call with KK or AA (which he does). Now the turn comes another heart, but i really am not worried about him flush drawing now. I bet out 1/3 of the pot, not wanting to lose him if he has KK, i am expecting a call and know if he raises, i am in trouble. now villain does indeed raise to put me and him pretty much all in... i tank knowing exactly what i would see if i called: a nice AA.

Now my question is, seeing as i have put Villain on AA or KK and with the raise on the turn that would rule out KK, do i trust my instinct fold? Or are there some hands you just shouldn't let go of? See if Villain flat calls pre, then i happily snap him off on the turn, but that raise was just so fishy...

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancestevie707Small blind 10.0010.001750.00GrannyPBig blind 20.0030.002160.00 Your hole cardsQQ   salad24Raise 60.0090.002010.00JAMIEROCKFold    snorbitz13Fold    WEDD12Call 60.00150.001840.00VillainRaise 170.00320.001580.00GrannyPFold    salad24Call 120.00440.001890.00WEDD12Call 120.00560.001720.00Flop  Q2A   VillainCheck    salad24Bet 80.00640.001810.00WEDD12Fold    VillainCall 80.00720.001500.00Turn  3   VillainCheck    salad24Bet 340.001060.001470.00VillainRaise 1390.002450.00110.00salad24All-in 1470.003920.000.00VillainAll-in 110.004030.000.00salad24Unmatched bet 310.003720.00310.00VillainShowAA   salad24ShowQQ   River  6   stevie707WinThree Aces3720.00 3720.00

sillymunch

I just call this unlucky, it happens, if you hit a set, and with QQ your not nescicarily looking for a set, but usually if you hit your set your good to go, sets dont come around that often so Set v Set is so much more unlikely i personally dont think i could throw it away

The odds of getting dealt AA is 0.45% chance

you only have a 10% chance of hitting a set on any flop

YOUNG_GUN

played fine UL, not often are you going to run into top set here

DOHHHHHHH

After reading the title of the thread, I wasn't even going to look at the hand ID, until I saw it was a dym, then I looked at it for 0.01 of a second.

DON'T FOLD!

Bet bigger on the flop tho, it's way too small.

debdobs_67

If i start foldin sets just shoot me

grantorino

I'm never folding this

OP, whats your plan when you flat pre?  On a low board ? On a bpoard with one over? On a board like the one you got? When you flop top set

Your ranges seem to assume to much readless to me, but if you are sure he raise flop with AK and doesnt raise KK on turn and his range pre is AK,KK+ obv fold.

Another thing you might consider is that pre there are 16 combos of AK, 6 each of AA,KK. On that flop he can only have 12 of AK, 6 of KK and 3 of AA. So if he can shove turn with AK, which seems plausible to me its a snapcall (assuming he always 3bets KK pre)

rancid

never fold a set - simples !

salad24

In Response to Re: 2nd set: Can you put someone on top set, and fold?:

I'm never folding this OP, whats your plan when you flat pre?  On a low board ? On a bpoard with one over? On a board like the one you got? When you flop top set Your ranges seem to assume to much readless to me, but if you are sure he raise flop with AK and doesnt raise KK on turn and his range pre is AK,KK+ obv fold. Another thing you might consider is that pre there are 16 combos of AK, 6 each of AA,KK. On that flop he can only have 12 of AK, 6 of KK and 3 of AA. So if he can shove turn with AK, which seems plausible to me its a snapcall (assuming he always 3bets KK pre)
Posted by grantorino

My plan on a low board was to try and suss if it was an AK by raising any c bets and folding to re raises. I agree normally it should be a call, but my reads on him were just screaming AA! 

i was just wondering if anyone would ever consider folding a set like that, because i dont think i could ever fold, even after this hand. Thanks for your responses!

Dudeskin8

Why can't we shove pre ?

Lambert180

I don't understand the bet on the flop... what's the point of betting 80 into 560? I don't see what that 'susses out'. I'm calling with KJ, 2 clubs, and Ace or a Queen. So when he calls, surely you're none the wiser of his holdings.

salad24

In Response to Re: 2nd set: Can you put someone on top set, and fold?:

Why can't we shove pre ?
Posted by Dudeskin8

We could... but i don't shove QQ pre in a double your money at that stage of the game, espically with a reraise. Would be racing at best if you get called, usually. 

Dudeskin8

In Response to Re: 2nd set: Can you put someone on top set, and fold?:

In Response to Re: 2nd set: Can you put someone on top set, and fold? : We could... but i don't shove QQ pre in a double your money at that stage of the game, espically with a reraise. Would be racing at best if you get called, usually. 
Posted by salad24

Yep, thank the Lord I don't play these anymore.

Batkin88

In Response to Re: 2nd set: Can you put someone on top set, and fold?:

Why can't we shove pre ?
Posted by Dudeskin8

This is one of the first hands of a dym that would be seriously overplaying queens here and your only being called by better this early or AK at best, unless a complete lag player.
Bet bigger on flop and yes very hard to get away from this, but if you feel he had AA during the hand like you said yes you should fold you have to start trusting your reads and instincts. Also you said that the reraise pre is always AA KK or maybe AK at that level so your pretty much saying your 2/3 of time behind which would justify the fold pre. As played i would 3/4 bet flop and jam turn so i would be out in this dym 99.9% of the time.

salad24

In Response to Re: 2nd set: Can you put someone on top set, and fold?:

I don't understand the bet on the flop... what's the point of betting 80 into 560? I don't see what that 'susses out'. I'm calling with KJ, 2 clubs, and Ace or a Queen. So when he calls, surely you're none the wiser of his holdings.
Posted by Lambert180

Well i dont think he has KJ or 2 clubs for a start. After a check from him, a bet of 80 is very easy to check/raise which i think he would have done with AK. Where as a flat call points more towards KK (being scared of the A) or AA (not wanted to kill the action with such a massive hand) therefore the shove on the turn stinks of AA. do you see where i'm coming from?