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Tricky spot with medium strength hands vs Lags, with lots of dead money in pot.

edited September 2011 in The Poker Clinic
9 handed play 50/£1.

UTG makes it £3.50. I flat with two red 8's from C/O with £140 behind.  Button Jams for £46.  SB re Jams for £55.  Laggy UTG opener flats without really thought process, with a stack of perhaps £200.

£160 in pot, myself closing the action for £51.5, but with the option to 5bet shove another £90 into UTG opener who is never folding.  Small chance UTG has me crushed, but equally likely he holds AK/Q and potential that he's put himself in a bad spot with underpair.  Laggy jammers are immaterial, as I can only really fold or rejam, making up lost money in side pot vs Laggy UTG opener when they are hugely strong or bink.  But I'm fairly certain they are counterfeiting some of their own hands.

Have played with UTG opener a lot, he has a tendancy to massively over play hands and this is going to be a flip far more often than not.

I'm well rolled for the evening, happy to get it in here? (with added incentive/value in main pot?)

Comments

  • edited September 2011
    fold, at least one of them must have a pr higher than eights, SB must have a pair.
    Flat from UTG is kinda weird

    Best case scenrio they all have overcards and you have to fade a lot of paint.

    emm shove or fold -- fold and watch an eight flop

  • edited September 2011
    In Response to Re: Tricky spot with medium strength hands vs Lags, with lots of dead money in pot.:
    fold, at least one of them must have a pr higher than eights, SB must have a pair. Flat from UTG is kinda weird Best case scenrio they all have overcards and you have to fade a lot of paint. emm shove or fold -- fold and watch an eight flop
    Posted by rancid
    As said bud the shorter stacks arent the real cause for concern here, as I make up the loss when winning at showdown vs the Laggy UTG opener who I'm likely flipping against - and who wont be folding pre.  As said all the overcards are likely counterfitting, but there is a strong likelyhood I'm behind to one of them, as you say.

    Couldnt quite work this out at table.  Got criticised by a TD this week for being a "tanker" so trying to act slightly quicker.  Didnt feel like I was dominated however, also feeling opponents are likely holding each others outs.
  • edited September 2011
    I think I would fold, but I am not capable of working this out properly
  • edited September 2011
    I see what your mean but isnt that £141 to win £180 against UTG with poss of winning the lot if 8's are good.
    If you feel 8's are good against UTG its a call for me but if he has that stack and just flats are 8's really beating him??
    Tough one but call if you think u have him beat
  • edited September 2011
    In Response to Re: Tricky spot with medium strength hands vs Lags, with lots of dead money in pot.:
    I see what your mean but isnt that £141 to win £180 against UTG with poss of winning the lot if 8's are good. If you feel 8's are good against UTG its a call for me but if he has that stack and just flats are 8's really beating him?? Tough one but call if you think u have him beat
    Posted by Batkin88
    Exactly.  So as the side pot is going to cover the potential loss vs the two shorter jammers (£53 potential loss to flip vs utg opener for additional £94) but with the added value of main pot.

    UTG opener flatting behind isnt a true sign of strength.  His hand selection is pretty wide here, but he massively overplays paint/Small PP's OOP as standard.

    He isnt folding if I jam, this much I'm sure of, as another issue in his game is inability to find fold button with money invested,  But if he's got a preemy he'd be crazy to here.  But as said, I'm fairly sure I'm up against overs, hopepully a fair few being nullified.

    So given the extra value in main pot, believing the only player with money behind has paint, do we ignore the main pot and flip for side pot, with all the extra equity of main pot?

    There is a reason I ask and I'll put up the result and hands later.
  • edited September 2011
    just pokerstove the ranges for the sidepot and the main pot, should tell you what to do. I still think its porb a fold, but I could be wrong, depends how light shorties put it in. But if calling for the main pot is a mistake I dont think being slightly more than 50% v UTG will make up for it, again could be way off
  • edited September 2011
    I think I would agree to this in its entirety if not the strong likelhood of multiple counterfeits.  But taking that into account, alongside the flip vs significant stack and increased value from mainpot it certainly muddied the waters.

    Jammers ranges more often than not paint.  Readless I fold to UTG stationing it with 3BB's invested.
  • edited September 2011
    I decided to jam, going for the insurance vs larger stack with incentive on main pot.

    This is more gamble than I normally opt fair.  Not a big fan of 5bet shoving here with a hand as weak as 8's without the option of making my hand look lke a bluff, especially with only 3 big blinds invested.  Normally am happy to release.  But as long as laggy utg opener doesnt have an overpair I decided it had to be done.  Being well rolled for the evening helped also.

    Did have the best hand, opponents held KsQs AhKh (utg) and AQ, so had the counterfeits I wanted.

    But this seems like too much gamble to me in some ways I cant decide, despite the rationale
  • edited September 2011
    Well you got what you wanted and with so many high cards your not in the worst spot, did the 88 hold to AK? I cant believe he just flatted behind with that surely he has to shove to stop you coming along with the kind of hand you have.
  • edited September 2011
    In Response to Re: Tricky spot with medium strength hands vs Lags, with lots of dead money in pot.:
    Well you got what you wanted and with so many high cards your not in the worst spot, did the 88 hold to AK? I cant believe he just flatted behind with that surely he has to shove to stop you coming along with the kind of hand you have.
    Posted by Batkin88
    Yeah as I said he's not particularly good.  Its pretty much an auto fold for me if he 5bets allin there.

    Didnt want to turn it into a perceved brag post, 4248x board (didnt bother to look at river :p)

    Also didnt want to be results orientated.  I do tank alot in game, was a lot to think of here, in terms of ranges and insurance and equity on main and side pot.

    To be honest still not sure it was right, even with solid reads.  I think the high potential for counterfeits was the clincher though.  Its probably borderline.
  • edited September 2011
    well they had the perfect set of hands for you. You are 44% to win the main pot, which is a lot more than I thought even with counterfeits , 52% for the side pot. If you change the AQ to 99 though you are only 16% for the main. Interpret that as you will :). Even changing AQ to AJ reduces you to 33% for the main pot

    I'm not sure, I would think its prob a marginal fold against their ranges
  • edited September 2011
    Yep, as said not sure either.

    But dont see how it can be 52/48 for the side with 2 A's and 2 K's already out there?

    Definately borderline, was nice to be well rolled that evening :p
  • edited September 2011
    In Response to Re: Tricky spot with medium strength hands vs Lags, with lots of dead money in pot.:
    Yep, as said not sure either. But dont see how it can be 52/48 for the side with 2 A's and 2 K's already out there? Definately borderline, was nice to be well rolled that evening :p
    Posted by AMYBR
    Yeah sorry, calculated that without dead cards, you are about 60%
  • edited September 2011
    63% I make it :p 

    So 63% for side and 44% for main (I thought that was high also).

    So 107% overall!!! Wwwwwweee Cant lose, am freerolling :p (joke)

  • edited September 2011
    my figures are from poker stove, might have entered something wrong though. You using stove or something else?
  • edited September 2011
    Never use stove, just retro active post flop odds.
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