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Rivered
Thank you for a few good years enjoyment on sky poker but i have now got to the point of having enough of getting donked out of tourneys. Some people will say it is good to play against players that go all in with K2 suited with 4000 chips, well not when you keep losing. I must of been ahead 70percent of the time with my all ins over the last 3/4 months and just seem to keep losing, its become a joke, i may come back after a long break from it, but for now goodbye
Comments
Suppose, for an example, you repeatedly played the same hole cards, heads-up, all-in preflop (as in Russian Roulette poker).
Imagine for 70% of the hands, you have AK-suited and your opponent has 89 off-suit, i.e. you look way ahead.
For the other 30% of the hands, it's the other way around, 89os for you, AKs for him.
What percentage of these hands would you expect to win?
Instinct might suggest it's 70%, (i.e. out of 100, you win most of the 70 hands where you're ahead and pick up the difference when you get lucky on the 30 hands you're behind.)
However, in this (artificial) situation, you would only expect to win around 56% of the hands. So you're losing not far off half the time.
Clearly, this is just one example, and all-ins don't have the same hole cards repeatedly. Some hands will have a heavy favourite (e.g. AA v KK) and some will be more evenly matched (e.g. AK v QJ). However, it does illustrate that sometimes when we feel we ought to be winning the vast majority of the hands due to being ahead most of the time, the probabilities don't necessarily work out that way. We feel we're losing a disproportionate number of times and possibly jump to the conclusion that the cards are rigged.