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Running Good/Bad & understanding the V word.....
Without mentioning any names, there are people on the forum/site who are bad players with lots of obvious/basic leaks.....
They don't think/know this themselves, but the fact is they are......You can tell by watching/playing them and reading what they say about poker etc....
How do you think varience has influenced these people and made them think they are actually better than they are? And also led to doubts about the integrity of the site and online poker in general.
I think that lots and lots of players need to run +ev to win money. (but they don't know it)
This is fine, coz we all know that anyone can win @ poker and that makes it such a great game, everyone has a chance on their day....
However when these players run well +ev, and are moderate winners over a period of time, they come to believe that this is normal. They attribute their success to playing well, rather than running good.
Nobody runs good forever though, and inevitably these players will start to run neutral, inbetween good and bad......
What happens?
They go from winning moderately, to losing moderately.....
Of course when a really top player runs neutral ev, they are still winners due to their skill edge in the game.
Then there's the third scenario, where we run bad. All World class players run bad, as do complete fish. It happens to everyone.
The 'bad/losing' player that is a moderate winner when running good, and a moderate loser when running neutral, now becomes a big losing player during a downswing, with no significant skill edge in the game to limit the damage/fight back against the varience.
The World beater who crushes, wins massive MTT's and scoops fortunes at cash when running good, and who shows a solid profit when running neutral, now becomes a moderate loser during a severe period of run bad.
--------------------
When I read from some players on here who say "Varience is kicking me in the stomach lately", what they actually could be experiencing, is that they have stopped running good, and are now running only slightly +ev, or neutral ev, which due to their skill level, and lack of skill edge, means their results begin to show a loss....
This isn't neccesserily a case of running bad, just running worse than you were before......
Of course a below average player who has spent a sustained period of time running good and winning, will start to look for reasons why this has stopped.
You can't run good forever, there's only so far positive varience can take you, it's not a long term solution.
When the run good ends, the game gets tough .............
........The site/s don't suddenly become faulty.....................................
Comments
No one ever thinks they run good
What ya make of this post ??
You get AA v KK all in pre and your at risk your going to win 80% of the time. So by winning this one hand youve won it 100% of the time so your 20% above EV ?
But equally, on any model such as this their are going to be positive and negative ends of a standard spectrum.
So there are going to be aberrations with this. People who play bad and run perma good, vice versa and inbetween. With significant polar opposites on the spectrum, play regardless.
The answer to this obviously being BRM.
So if a person finds themselves at an unkind end of a very standard specrtum, but also have hoffific BRM, they are going to struggle.
As you know, some of the best players in the world are permabroke due to poor BRM.
We cant say the best players rise to the top, the bad are perpetual losers and nail it down.
I'd wholeheartedly agree that good /> players with great BRM will always do very well however.
He could then post on every forum in the world sayin how can i possibly LOSE every time ??
The answer would be 'well thats variance'
No one ever ever will be able to prove OR disprove if anything untoward is goin on behind the scenes.
You either PLAY or DONT PLAY
imo it really is that simplez
It would have happened by now.
Great opening post by DOHHHHHHHH.
And don't even need to run good tbh.
I'm Tiger Woods.
By rights if this info is truly helpful to then every one of you should have me crushed.
Im thinking that maybe people are more concerned with minutia info to the detriment of developing a decent game.
I know logic should state more info = better decission but this only applies in accordance to the importance of the info you already have.
The very top players would probably use all the info you guys discuss on account of thier dedication to the game combined with thier natural ability and genius of mind.
Kind of agreeing with you here dohhh, just saying it in a different way.
nice post dohhhhhhhhhhhh
If I make a dice with two number fives on it and claim its a 1/6 chance of hitting each side thats intentionally rigged. If the dice is manufactured incorrectly and is marginally weighted toward one side that wouldnt be intentional but the results wouldnt be random like a normal dice
2). Good play is just consistenly extracting value and making good decisions.
Forget +EV..... The guys that blame the software for consistently bad results are failing at point 2 yet alone point 1