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only doing 1 horse today a good write up from a tipster

edited November 2011 in Betting Chat
 HUGH TAYLOR : URBAIN DE SIVOLA will be having his third run today in the juvenile hurdle at Newbury (1.00), but it’s effectively just his second start, as he got no further than the first flight on his debut at Market Rasen. That’s an important distinction to draw, as Nick Williams’ juvenile hurdlers have tended to find tremendous improvement from the first run to the second, especially those introduced at around this time of the year (October/November); it’s a fairly limited sample (around ten horses), but on average they have improved by around 25lb on Timeform ratings from their first run to their second. That makes Urbain De Sivola a very interesting proposition here, because the bare form of his second start at Chepstow would have seen him make the frame in most runnings of this race, and improvement of the nature described above would have been enough to win most renewals. Moreover, he shaped as if very likely to find significant improvement next time; he was carried very wide on two occasions by the errant Red Riverman on the first bend, losing a few lengths on each occasion, albeit at an early stage of the race, and he travelled best of all for most of the straight, looking much the likeliest winner approaching the second last and still bang there with a good chance (upsides eventual winner) when making a mess of the last and sprawling on landing, losing all chance. That form has a solid look, with the winner and runner-up both finishing in the first four, not beaten all that far, in a Grade Two hurdle at Cheltenham last time. I’d expect plenty of improvement from Urbain De Sivola here, and although there are some interesting newcomers in opposition, improvement would see him very hard to keep out of the frame with an excellent chance of winning. 3pts e/w 

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