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horses for saturday from hugh taylor tipster

IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
edited November 2011 in Betting Chat

MINELLA THEATRE is a fairly predictable selection from this column, but it's hard not to think he's worth chancing in the At The Races Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle (3.30) given the two major factors in his favour. The first, of course, is the switch to Lawney Hill, and with the market still seemingly failing to come to terms with what price these switchers, it seems pointless to overanalyse; even this year, after the number of times people like me have highlighted the stable's record in such circumstances, the record of horses having their first start for the yard after being switched is 9-20, +49 points. Moreover, Minella Theatre is a horse who has shown his best form fresh, winning first time out in 2009 and 2010, and today might be the day to catch him.

The Triumph Hurdle isn't normally my idea of an attractive ante-post betting heat, especially so far in advance of the race and with a lot of the likely runners yet to even have raced over hurdles, but I do think the bookmakers might have underestimatedURBAIN DE SIVOLA's impressive win at Newbury yesterday in terms of his price for Cheltenham. I'd emphasise that at this stage there has to be a calculated risk involved, as not only would he need to keep going the right way from this run, but post-race quotes about the Triumph being a long-term possibility came from Nick Williams' representative rather than the trainer himself (who wasn't present) or his wife, and I have in the back of my mind the fact that Me Voici, who looked a live Triumph Hurdle hope a couple of years ago, missed the race, though in his case connections had always said he would only run if the ground was heavy. At 20-1, I think the chance is worth taking to small stakes - I think he'll be favourite for the Finale Hurdle if that's his next target and if he wins that he'll be favourite for the Triumph - though I would keep stakes small because we need to go into this with our eyes open as the race is a long way away and plenty could happen between now and then. But the way I look at yesterday's Newbury race is like this; runner-up Ranjaan was around a 14-1 chance for the Triumph Hurdle before the race, and if Urbain De Sivola hadn't run and he had beaten the gambled-on Ardlui as he did, he would have probably been cut to single-figure odds for the Triumph; yet Urbain De Sivola beat Ranjan easily and is available at around 20-1.

At Newcastle (1.45) it might be worth chancing WHAT A DREAM at big prices in the 2m4f handicap chase. He's a half-brother to stable star Lie Forrit, and he showed definite signs of ability himself on his first couple of starts over hurdles last season, showing a level of ability that would make him hard to beat if replicated over fences here off a mark of 89. He lost his way thereafter, but his stable wasn't in great form for much of the season. To be fair, the yard has still to pick up this year too, with no winners since March, but six of the stable's last 11 runners have finished in the first three, albeit some beaten a fair way, and more importantly I thought What A Dream showed definite promise on his chasing debut at Carlisle last time on his first start for seven months, a shade keen early on but generally jumping soundly bar the odd novice error, and travelling notably strongly until lack of peak fitness presumably took its toll, still third and travelling as well as any four out before weakening quickly from the home turn, Carlisle very much a track to accentuate any lack of peak fitness. That race is working out extremely well, with the winner, seventh and eighth all winning next time. What A Dream travelled and jumped well enough to suggest he can be extremely competitive off this mark over fences, and his price compensates for any concerns over stable form.

It's no surprise to see Empire Levant, unpenalised for his wide-margin win on Thursday, a warm favourite for the 2m2f handicap hurdle at Newbury (2.05). He could win easily again, and his trainer has a very good record with horses turned out within 48 hours, but I'm not convinced any of his rivals that day gave their running and I was quite impressed by RAYA STAR at Wetherby last time. He's been raised 12lb for that win, but when horses surge right away in the final 100 yards like he did at Wetherby they often continue to progress, and the runner-up won off a 2lb higher mark next time. Raya Star looks the type to keep on improving and he looks a bit overpriced in what is admittedly a very competitive race.

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